On track

The feeling going in was that this would be a big night for Democrats and nothing has happened thus far to change that. Pennsylvania has gone to Obama. While a number of states that McCain should have won easily -- Indiana and Georgia -- are still too close to call.

It looks like the GOP is hanging on to a few Senate seats it might have lost -- McConnel in Ky. will apparently survive and perhaps Saxby Chambliss as well. That means it is highly unlikely Democrats will get a fillibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

Too early to know much statewide, but Patrick McHenry appears to have held his own in Catawba County vs. Daniel Johnson which bodes well for his chances.

Surprised we haven't seen any local results yet -- could be some technical problems.

Swain Co., N.C.

So far, it has the most precincts reporting percentage-wise -- 71%.

In 2004, Bush won the county by a whisker 52-48 (a total of 175 votes).

With almost 3/4 of the votes counted in 2008, Obama appears that he will carry this mountain county. He leads by 8 points.

Florida case study

Lake County is an excellent example of the apparent trend in this election.

In 2004, George Bush won Lake County, in central Florida, with 74,382 votes.

In 2008, with 89 percent of precincts reporting, John McCain has just over 78,000 votes.

Good news for the Republicans, right?

Wrong.

While Kerry only pulled 48,216 in 2004 for just 39 percent of the vote, Obama already has tallied 59,864 votes which means he's only down 13 points instead of 22.

In a state won by Bush by just 5 points, I don't see anyway McCain can hold on if those types of swings are manifested throughout the state.

Bottom line: It looks like the Republicans turned out -- but not nearly at the level of Democrats, if Lake County is any indication.

Similar trending in Virginia

Bush won Culpeper County 65-35. With 85 percent of precincts reporting, McCain leads 55-44.

Polls close in N.C. -- exit polls show tight race

N.C. will be close and is tilting toward an Obama win.

Exit polls show McCain winning the male vote 53-46, but losing females 56-43.

More from Indiana

Remember, these are REAL numbers, not exit poll numbers.

Bush carried Clinton County 72-28 in 2004, a 5,000-vote margin.

With all precincts reporting in 2008, McCain wins the county 56-43, a margin of only 1,600 votes.

If exit polls are to be believed ...

.... is going to be a huge night for Obama. The details are out in Indiana -- exit polls show Obama won females by 11 POINTS!!!! He tied with males, which obviously means he carried the state by about 5-6 points.

If that's the case, he will win a huge electoral college victory.

Could the exit polls be wrong? Of course --we know that from 2004. But they would have to be WAY WAY WAY off because this was a state McCain had to win easily Bush won Indiana by 20 points in 2004.

Polls getting ready to close ...

.. in ALL of Indiana, Ky. and also Georgia.

The networks will free up the full exit poll data from those states which will tell us alot.

Actual vote count -- good news for Obama

Looking at two counties in Indiana. Again go here for our interactive national map.

In Indiana, the county in the far northeast corner is Steuben. Using this USA Today stats package from the 2004 election, we see that Bush beat Kerry 66-34 in 2004. But in 2008, with 68 percent of the vote counted, McCain leads only 58-42.

Simiarly in Vigo county in the southwest, with 54 percent of the vote counted, Obama leads 56-44. What did that county do in 2004? It went for Bush 53-47.

McCain loses Indiana and we can all go to bed early.

Two exit poll stories

There are apparently two batches of exit polls floating around the Internet. One shows a very tight race. The other shows an Obama blowout (he would win all the tossup states like Missouri, Florida, N.C. Virginia, etc.).

Looks like we'll actually have to count the votes!

Trouble for GOP Senator in Ky.

If you check out The Star's interactive national elections results page here, you can zoom in on Kentucky, were returns are already coming in. One thing you can see is that McCain is outperforming incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell. Look at Floyd county in the far eastern part of the state -- it is almost dead even between McCain and Obama, but McConnel is getting trounced in early returns.

I bet he loses that seat -- maybe handily.

On the other hand.....

Drudge now saying exit polls show Obama by 15 points in Pennsylvania, surely an indicator of a blowout win.

Still standing by ....

First exit poll hint -- hmmmmm

Not sure of the reliability of Gawker.com (although it is considered to be, I believe, a liberal site) but here is its leaked Exit poll info -- MUCH closer than expected.

Shelby turnout update

The Star's Alan Ford reports that the "counter" at Shelby No. 2 precinct was at 529 at 2:30 p.m.. Combined with the 1,542 from that precinct who voted early and you have 2,071 votes cast.

According to the Board of Elections, there are 3,045 registered voters in that precinct meaning that turnout in Shelby No. 2 is already 68 percent with 5 hours left to vote, including the traditionally heavy late afternoon/early evening period.

Shelby No. 2 went 62-38 for Bush in 2004.

Exit poll data? Not so fast

According to this L.A. Times story, an effort is being made to make sure exit poll data doesn't leak until at least 5 p.m. EST. After the 2004 debacle (when exit poll data showed a huge night for John Kerry that obviously never materialized) more caution is being used.

Election night viewing guide

I've been recruited by the newsroom to bring you an election blog. This will start Tuesday when the first exit polls are released in the afternoon. These usually leak out to various sites -- I'll track them down and let you know what they say. These will be the first polls of actual votes and should tell us a lot.

I know some folks have a problem with these exit polls saying that they are a disincentive for people to vote, but I believe in getting out information ASAP so I'll pass them along.

Now, here's what to look for Tuesday night in terms of the race for president and Congress.

Mid-afternoon: Early exit poll data released. First of all, if you aren't hearing the words "shocking" and "upset" then it probably means McCain is going down to defeat. If you average all the polls out, Obama has a 5-8 point lead. Now, Clinton led Dole by as many as 14 points on the weekend before the 1996 election and only won by 6 and Obama polled about 3-6 points too high during the primaries, so it's certainly within the real of possibility that those numbers are off, but it's highly unlikely. If you are hearing from those exit poll numbers that McCain is "doing slightly better" or has "narrowed the gap" it is probably still code for "he's going to lose."

6 p.m. Polls in PARTS of Indiana and Kentucky close. There will probably not be a network call in either of these states until all polls close.

7 p.m. Polls close in ALL of Indiana, Kentucky, Virginia, S.C., Vermont, and Georgia as well as MOST of Florida and N.H. At this point, we will learn a lot. Indiana has been moved by many into the "too close to call" TCTC margin. The longer in the night we go without a call being made in Indiana, the worse it is for McCain. But if Indiana is called early for McCain, that's a sign the election could be tight. Same with Virginia --it's actual an Obama lean right now. If it gets called early for Obama, Dems might as well go ahead and pop the bubbly. Florida is obviously a must win for McCain.
Still, it's likely that all of these states will be TCTC right away, which brings us to Georgia. If it is ALSO TCTC, it's bad news for McCain. Kentucky should go for McCain early. If not, it's going to be a HUGE night for Obama. Also, keep an eye on New Hampshire. Those folks like underdogs and have always gravitated toward McCain -- could be an upset possibility.

Skip says: McCain gets Indiana, Kentucky, S.C. and Georgia; Obama wins Florida, Virginia, Vermont and N.H.

7:30: Polls close in N.C., W.V. and Ohio. McCain has to have these Bush states and the Dole-Hagan Senate race will also be very telling as to the final makeup of the Senate.

Skip says: McCain wins N.C. in a squeaker and W.V.; Obama wins Ohio. Also, Hagan over Dole

8 p.m.: Polls close in Pa., Missouri, Maine, Connecticut, Mass., New Jersey, Delaware, Md., D.C., Mississippi, Alabama, Illinois, Tenn., Oklahoma. By now, we should have an excellent idea what is going to happen. If states like Indiana and Georgia have still not been called, it's a big night for Obama. Or, if states like Virginia and Florida have already been called for Obama, the same will be true.

Skip says: McCain wins Missouri;, Miss., Alabama, Tenn., Oklahoma; Obama wins Pa., Connecticut, Maine, Mass., N.J., Delaware, Md., D.C., Illinois.

8:30 p.m. Polls close in Arkansas.
Skip says: McCain wins Arkansas.

9 pm.: Arizona, Colorado, N. Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan, Texas, Louisiana, Kansas, Nebraska, N.D., S.D., NY. Wyoming, Wisconsin and Rhode Island. If the race is still in the air, Colorado will be crucial. New Mexico has been decided by a handful of votes in the last 2 elections and there is no reason to think otherwise this year.

Skip says: McCain wins Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, Kansas, Nebraska, N.D., S.D., Wyoming; Obama wins Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, N.Y., Wisconsin, R.I.

10 p.m.: Polls close in Nevada, Iowa, Montana and Utah. Iowa is solid Obama. Nevada is a tossup. Montana is usually solid GOP, but some polling indicates it might be close. If Obama wins states like this, the rout is on.

Skip says: McCain wins Nevada, Montana, Utah; Obama wins Iowa

11 p.m.: California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Hawaii (later, Alaska)
Obama should be giving his acceptance speech by now -- if not, the night is a total shocker

McCain wins Idaho, Alaska; Obama wins California, Oregon,Washington, Hawaii.

Skip's final electoral tally: Obama 328, McCain 210.

Understand, however, that this is still much closer than it looks.

Flip Florida, Virginia and Ohio and McCain wins.

Free free to leave your own projections. If you don't want to go over every state, just tell me on which states you disagree with me.

Ike links, info

Hurricane Ike is a monster. Don't let the "category" or top wind speeds fool you. Even though Ike is "only" a strong Cat 2 or weak Cat 3 hurricane, it will impact the Texas coast as if it were a Cat 4 or 5. This is because the sheer size of the storm will generate a prolific storm surge -- possibly as high as 25 feet!

Here are some interesting links:

A site that compiles storm chasers' streaming video
A four-way view of local Houston television broadcasts
A tropical page with the latest information on the storm
Scanner traffic from Galveston, other areas of Texas
An Ike "situation page"

Welcome rain Wednesday

After a long blogging absence, the weather brings me back.

We have a very unusual pattern developing over the next 36 hours -- the weather map looks more like fall or even winter than summer.

That won't be reflected so much in temperatures -- although it will be noticeably cooler Wed. under cloud cover -- but it will be reflected in un-summer like precipitation.

Usually, this time of year, our best shot at rain is from thunderstorms.

But tomorrow will see a prolonged rain event over parts of the southeast.

Here's the catch -- much like a winter storm, this is a close call for us.

SOMEBODY, is going to get well over an inch of rain over a wide area, but the cutoff is sharp from north to south.

Check out the latest run of the GFS computer model seen here.

As you can see, areas of S.C., Ga. and Alabama will see 2, maybe even 3 inches of precip from tonight through Wed. night.

BUT, as you move north through S.C., the rainfall totals diminish greatly -- Chester sees 1.25 inches, Greenville-Spartanburg .75 inches and by the time you get to Gaffney, it's down to .50 inches -- we're in the .25-.50 inch range. Nothing to sneeze at, but hardly drought-busting rain.

The latest run of the NAM model, seen here, paints a slightly rosier picture, giving us close to an inch of rain.

The folks that specialize in this forecasting with the NOAA have generated this precip forecast map.

It cheats toward the NAM's higher totals for us.

Bottom line -- we're going to see some rain tomorrow, in all likelihood. It will range anywhere from a minor .25-type event to a more significant .75- to 1 inch rain. Remember though, even if the totals are smaller, this will be more valuable precip because it will cover a large area as opposed to thunderstorms which hit some areas but miss others entirely.

For Legion fans and organizers, after Wednesday's rain, we fall back to typical widely scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Temperatures should be typical of this time of year -- nothing to severe in terms of heat.

N. Shelby graduation address

I was incredibly honored to be asked to speak to the graduating class of North Shelby School -- an institution which has my highest respect. Below are my remarks, which lean heavily on a story to which I linked in this space a while back.

Good morning distinguished graduates of North Shelby School. And good morning as well to all students, teachers, staff, parents and other special guests.
We're going to talk baseball today. I'm a huge baseball fan -- used to have those Strat-O-Matic board games where you roll 20-sided dice and look on some chart with teensie type to see if the batter got a hit.
As an adult, there is nothing more relaxing than taking in a game at the ol' ballpark.
And there is nothing more exciting in baseball or softball than a home run. Announcers try to come up with a special "call" after a big blast. "Going, going, gone" "It might be, it could be, it is" and other famous calls bring back memories.
My favorite home run call comes from Hall of Fame broadcaster Dick Enberg, who, after a home run, would say "touch 'em all!" of course referring to the four bases.
And that brings me to a story I want to tell you about. You may have seen the story on TV.
In Washington state, a senior on a small college women's softball team comes to bat in one of the last games of her career. Despite being a solid player, she is small in stature. Yet, through scrappy play and hard work, she has kept a spot on the team. Still, she bats near the bottom of the lineup and she has never hit a home run in her career.
This time at bat, however, everything comes together -- she swings as hard as she can, makes perfect contact and the ball sails over the fence.
Imagine that euphoria! At the very end of her last season -- her first homerun!
In her excitement to circle the bases, she misses first base. Then, when she stops to go back, the unthinkable happens -- she steps awkwardly and severely injures her knee. Now, she is on the infield dirt, writhing in pain.
Obviously she is in need of medical attention, but what about the homerun?
By rule, she has to touch each base for the home run to count. Also by rule, her coaches or teammates are not allowed to assist her around the bases.
The umpires confer and decide that she will be awarded a single unless she can make it around herself.
She can not.
Just as the coaches were about to pick her up to carry her back to the dugout, extinguishing her dreams of a first-ever home run, another voice is heard.
"Can I help her around?"
The umpires, coaches and players turn to see that it is the first baseman making the offer. A MEMBER OF THE OTHER TEAM!
Her name was Mallory Holtman and she held every record in the book at the opposing team -- lots and lots of home runs dotted her stat sheet. She was also a senior
The umps confer and find no reason why an opposing player can't assist the baserunner. So she and another teammate lift the runner carefully and start around the bases. They stop at second so the injured player can gingerly rest her foot on the bag ... and so on , until they reach home plate.
Put yourselves in the shoes of those players. Really, close your eyes and feel the moment -- a dusty softball field. Pretend you are the first baseman -- you have literally chosen to help the other team score runs -- because it was the right thing to do. Now, the injured baserunner -- you are realizing a moment of glory that you could not have done without the help of others. And imagine the spectacle from afar -- in the stands. For one moment, the team colors all melt into one and the scoreboard reveals that all involved are winners. Talk about "touching 'em all!"
By the time the players turned for home, fans of both schools stood on their feet, cheering and crying and realizing they were witnessing the ultimate in human accomplishment, compassion and integrity.
There will be cheers and tears here today as well.
But lest you graduates think you are the injured player in this story, let me set you straight. I've spent enough time at North Shelby to know that you graduates and all North Shelby students are the first basemen in the lives of the staff, teachers and parents who are a part of this school as well as this entire Cleveland County community.
How many times have the folks at North Shelby turned their heads in wonder because of something you'd said or done? You inspire so many in so many ways. And you have taught us important lessons of life as well.
While you have learned a TON since being at this great institution, you probably didn't realize how much you have taught others during your time here.
Here are just a few of those things cited by the people who know and love you
Kierra Bostic,
Kierra has taught us all patience. She has also taught us that sometimes things fall apart but with enough strength and determination, she has always somehow been able to put things back together and continue on.

Nyda Thiypkomol

Nyda has taught us that great friends mean a lot in life. This is carried out through her daily activities and demonstrated through her facial expressions and body language when she is in social situations. She adores her friends and appears so comfortable with everything when they are surrounding her. She loves to join her friends in singing clips from different songs, and just laughing and talking in general.

Brett Washburn
Bret has demonstrated sharing and caring for others. He reminds us how important it is to be sensitive towards others and their needs. He has taught all of us that nothing is ever too small to say thank you for or to always remember how important it is to be mannerly by things like welcoming someone into our class and making them feel such a part of what we do. He is the best with teacher cadets, student nurses, HO students, volunteers, etc. of any student I have ever known.
O'Bryan Little
Friendship is important. He talks about how he likes to hang out and do fun things. He looks forward to doing something special everyday. O’Bryan has learned the value of money and how important it is for him to manage his money. He wants to live on his own one day and realizes that it is important to be responsible. He has taught me that once he was reliant on others for almost everything but now he has begun a new pathway in his life. He is moving into adulthood in a world that has so much he can capture and he has his net ready.
Orlando Lee
Most definitely, "To never give up" Through all his adversity and illness along the way, he always returns as good as new with a smile and often a hug. He has also taught us the importance of a beautiful smile.
I don't want to diminish the incredible education you have received here at North Shelby from the terrific staff here and the untold support of family, friends, churches and others.
But you need to be aware of what you have given in return.
While the world tries to tell you that you can't get around the bases to claim a home run, we know differently -- you get around and you help US get around!
And remember, any of us - -ANY OF US -- can take that awkward step back to the bag that causes us to be unable to continue -- it might be our fault, or simply a cruel twist of fate. But it's how we respond to others who have suffered that misstep that defines us every bit as much as how we react to our own tough times.
Truth be told, it is all of US who need your help understanding and practicing the truly important things in life -- compassion, caring, trust and love.
Often times addresses like these come with advice -- honestly, I wouldn't presume to offer advice to such an illustrious group. But I will leave you a few words of wisdom handed down to me over the years.
First, work hard, play harder.
Cry every once in a while, but laugh all the time.
Ask for help when needed, offer help before being asked.
And finally, be ready when someone lies on the ground in front of you, in agony because of a cruel twist. Whether it be with a simple smile or strength of body, mind or spirit, help them. Help them home.
Thank you for what you have done for your families, your school and your community.
Thank you for carrying us all around the basepaths with your smiles and your effort and your determination.
Thank you and congratulations to the North Shelby graduating class of 2009.
For all of you, this graduation is a long, towering, majestic home run.
Now, as you circle the bases, please look at the faces of family members and those associate with this school, and know that you touched 'em all.

"Settled science?"

Don't you hate it when the facts get in the way of something that is supposedly no longer up for discussion.

Al Gore wants to call the question of global warming "settled." He may be right -- it appears to be "settled" that the earth is no longer warming and won't warm for another decade -- at least.

Check out this article which I doubt you'll see quoted on the evening news.

Much like Y2K and all sorts of other calamaties propagated by the far left to stamp out capitalism and grow the government, I fear that global warming will be viewed by historians as one of the greatest shams in human history.