An amazing example of sportsmanship

I stumbled across this story on ESPN.com.

I think you'll find it incredibly uplifting.

History may not be kind to Al Gore

If this scientist's theory is right, Al Gore could very well go down as the biggest joke in American history. Further, the liberal "ski is falling" strategy might be dealt a deathblow.

A remarkable profile/essay on race

This piece from the Atlantic magazine is lengthy, but very compelling. The writers followed Bill Cosby around for an extended time and has used his observations and conversation as the basis for this essay. I'll be interested in your thoughts.

American Idol

OK, now that I'm emerging from my "another-winter-without-decent-snow" funk, it's time to start blogging again on non-meteorological matters.

One of those is American Idol -- my family's favorite show.

This year, though, it seems to me there is a big problem -- it's a one-man show.

David Cook is CLEARLY heads above the other competitors -- can you ever remember it being so cut and dried so early in the show? There are still 7 contestants, but I don't think you can make a case that any of them belong on the same stage as Cook.

None of the four girls can compete and I'm quickly tiring of "Little David" -- too much like a Mousketeer.

Anyway, Cook is the man -- if the doesn't win it'll be because America is clueless not because anyone on the show can touch his talent.

Let's have fun with this ......

OK, this is it for the winter, so we're going to milk it for all it's worth.

The 18z run of the GFS is out ..

What do you think of the following two maps?

Monday evening at dusk.
Wee hours Tuesday morning.

It doesn't get much prettier than that -- more than an inch of precip -- temps look great. Plain and simple, it's yet another model run depicting an historic snow event for N.C. -- 6-12 inches.

I'm no more confident of this panning out than this afternoon -- and won't be until at least Friday, but it's hard to ignore maps that look so tasty.

I might stay up late for the 0z model runs - if so, update around midnight.

Late March snow? Can it happen? Yes!

UPDATE at 3:02 p.m.: SEE BOTTOM OF POST FOR NEW INFORMATION.

-----------

I can't believe I'm writing this, but our best threat for snow this entire winter may very well be next Monday, THE DAY AFTER EASTER!!!

First, some history. You may think a late-March snowstorm is unprecedented. If so, you didn't live here in 1983. As you can see from the above map, we received a major 8-inch dump on that date -- exactly 25 years ago this Monday.

Now, to the current setup.

The first thing I want to tell you about is something called the NAO -- North Atlantic Oscillation. All winter, the NAO has been in a positive phase. This basically means that there is no "blocking" over Greenland, no high pressure in that region to "lock in" in the cold. This means that areas of cold air are transient, they move in and the high pressure slides off the coast before the next storm makes it end.

Well, the NAO is heading toward a negative state -- just in time for spring!

But before Old Man Winter heads into hibernation, he may have a trick up his sleeve.

I'm going to give you lots of links today, lest you think I've fallen off my rocker.

First, the NWS puts out a medium range forecast multiple times a day.

Here is the top of the latest discussion:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD744 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008 VALID 12Z SUN MAR 23 2008 - 12Z WED MAR 26 2008 ...POTENTIAL FOR LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM FROM THE MID ATLANTICSTATES TO NEW ENGLAND...MODELS ARE CONVERGING TOWARD EAST COAST/W ATLC CYCLOGENESIS DAY5...WITH THE 00Z GFS AND GEFS MEAN TRENDING STRONGLY TOWARD THEDEVELOPED SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWFAND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. SEVERAL OF THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERSARE AS INTENSE AS THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THIS LOW...WITH A SIMILARTRACK FROM SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO THE ATLANTIC BENCHMARK. TAKEN LITERALLY...THIS GUIDANCE THREATENS A FOOT OF SNOW FROM NEARRICHMOND NORTHEASTWARD TO BOSTON...INCLUDING WASHINGTONDC...PHILADELPHIA...AND NEW YORK CITY. THERE IS PLENTY OFPRECEDENT FOR LATE SEASON HEAVY SNOWFALL...EVEN OVER THE CAROLINASAND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION. IN MANY WAYS...MARCH IS ANIDEAL MONTH FOR LARGE STORMS AND IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHERRIGHT...THEY CAN BE HISTORIC EVENTS. SOME OF THE YEARS THAT HADDEEP LATE SEASON SNOWS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THIS REGION IN THISREGION IN LATE MARCH 1942 1958 1964 1971 1974 1983.

Now, on to the very latest run of the computer model called GFS: (if you want to skip to the good part, check out the Wee hours Tuesday morning map)

Sunday evening. You can see high pressure building in as our storm gathers over Texas

Wee hours Monday morning. Still cold, storm on the move.

Monday rush hour. Moisture streaming northward. Check out the three separate high pressures

systems to the north -- they are in perfect position to feed in cold air.

Monday early afternoon. The 850mb freezing line -- very generally a rain-snow line, although less so this time of year because of the higher sun angle -- is on a line from Macon to Augusta to Columbia to Wilmington. We pick up a couple tenths of an inch of precip.

Monday evening. Now, if I saw this map in January, I'd be going nuts. PERFECT! 850 line well to our south. About .5 inches of precip. A gorgeous looking map.

Wee hours Tuesday morning. Another tench of an inch of precip.

TOTAL PRECIP MAP FOR THIS PERIOD. That's about .75 inches. Even if you figure this snow is wet and slushy, we're talking 2-4 inches, perhaps even more.

What about other models?

The UKMET and the Canadian model both show a slightly more suppressed solution -- which is good, since the trend has been to move storms NW (BUT, remember, that's been in a world where the NAO is positive -- this is an entirely different pattern).

The 12z Euro JUST came out and .... KABOOM! A major hit for upstate S.C./all of N.C./and up the coast into Va.

So, what's working against us with this storm?

Well, other than pretty model runs just about everything.

1) Climatology. A good definition is: If it doesn't usually happen, it won't happen. While possible, it is quite rare to see measureable snow here this late in the season.

2) Sun angle. One of the reasons its rare is that the sun is much more potent this time of year. That's why the 850 boundary I mentioned before can't be used as a rain-snow line in March like it can in January -- still, that GFS run shows plenty of room to spare cold-weather wise.

3) This winter's pattern. The trend has been for storms to cut up the Appalachians rather than off the coast, where we need them to go. Of course, this is a totally different pattern.

4) Time. This is still 5-6 days out -- hardly a model "sweet spot." The models will very likely lose this storm, then regain it over the next few days. If the GFS or Euro shows the storm in its Friday runs, it will be time to get serious.

What's working FOR us?

1) This STORM's pattern. While the overall winter pattern has stunk, lots of good pieces are in place for this system.

2) We have some wiggle room. There is plenty of precip and we even have a degree or two of cold air to work with as the models continue to evolve.

3) For at least one run, we've got the Euro in our corner -- by far the superior mid-range model.

3) We’re due! Come on – we haven’t had real snow in eons. I don’t care if Peter Cottontail has already done his deal.

Bottom line: Regardless of what the models show, only a fool would predict snow 5-6 days out in mid-late March. But the truth is, we’ve got a chance, which is more than we’ve been able to say for most of this winter. At the least, the week of Spring Break for school children will be chilly and probably wet, at least at the start.

More to come!

3:02 p.m. WED. UPDATE. Wanted you to see an excerpt from the NWS HPC discussion which was updated just after I posted:

... BEST ONSENSUS AT THIS TIME BASE ON NEWER 12Z MODEL RUNS FOR A SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER STORM EVENT IS FROM THE SRN APPLCHNSACROSS WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF NC/MUCH OF VA/MD/DELMARVA ANDCOASTAL NJ. AREA IS UNDER RIGHT REAR UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT PUTTINGMUCH OF THIS AREA UNDER FAVORABLE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HVYPCPN POTENTIAL.

Winter's final tease

The big upper low we talked about has shifted west -- according to the models. That puts us on the warm side of the storm which means no snow. This is not a big surprise, but hope springs eternal.

Which brings us to winter's last hurrah.

The 0z run of the GFS model -- remarkably, really -- shows a lovely snowfall for N.C. at the end of the week. The previous two runs of the model had taken a system that it originally showed missing us way to the south and gradually creeping it northward.

Now, it shows a direct hit.

Check out these maps:

Here we are early Friday afternoon. Low pressure forming in the Gulf. As you can see, strong high pressure is located over the Great Lake (not over New England and getting ready to slide off the coast which has been this winter's pattern).
Now, we skip ahead to the wee hours of Saturday morning. The storm is now crossing the Big Bend of Florida. Cold air is settling in as precip breaks out. High pressure in great spot.
By dawn Saturday, low is cranking off the coast, cold air funneling in. Snow falling.
Finally, the prettiest map of them all, early Saturday evening. A solid swath of 2-4 inches of snow.
And another inch or two late Saturday night/Sunday morning.


So will this happen?
Of course not!

Seriously, LOTS of thing working against this storm:
1) This winter's pattern. So far, virtually every storm has tracked to our west, even when models showed a near perfect track in the days prior to the storm. The only exception is the "non-snow" we had a few weeks back when the cold air didn't make it here in time.
2) The time of year. It's simply more difficult to get March snows than Dec. through Feb. One reason is the angle of the sun, which makes it harder to cool down the atmosphere.
3) We're still 6 days out -- hardly the model sweet spot.
4) We're talking about 1 run of 1 model -- not exactly a consensus.

On the positive side?
1) We're due! I mean, it's got to snow some day, right?
2) The Euro has the storm missing us to the south which means the inevitable northern trend would be our friend.
3) The main ingredients are in good position -- the 0z run shows sprawling strong high pressure positioned well to our north and the track of the low pressure through the Gulf and off the SE coast is PRIMO!

So, we're still talking about a very low odds event, but it's worth tracking and is our last real show, in all likelihood, until next winter.

Anyway, if you don't see any update, it means this one is fizzling like all the rest -- hopefully, though, lots of posts!

Weather update: Major storm looming?

As you probably know by now, the mountains got hammered with a nice snow today. A few stray flurries and snow showers even made it down to our neck of the woods.

Looming, however, is a potentially MAJOR storm. While it is not likely to impact us with snow (although not impossible) it could be a HUGE snow producer for the mountains of N.C./SW Va./Eastern Tenn./extreme NE Ga.

The main feature of this storm is a "cutoff" area of low pressure. These types of lows can be tremendous precip producers and come with a sort of "built in" cold air mechanism.

The big surprise snowstorm that hammered Charlotte and Rock Hill a few years back was from a cutoff low.

Here is a map showing the cutoff low at the upper levels (12z GFS run -- afternoon of March 5).
Obviously, there is tight temperature gradient.
Now, 6 hours later, the evening of March 5.

Now, here is the precip that has fallen, according to the 12z GFS during that span.

Amazingly, the European model shows a similar solution.

Now, a few points:

1) This would be an historic storms and historic storms that are projected on models 7 days out rarely verify.
2) We also are working against climatology -- March storms are rare -- not unprecedented, but rare.
3) It IS interesting that both the Euro and GFS are on to the same type of solution.

Bottom line: Way too early to even get excited about this a little bit, but definitely something to track. Whoever ends up just west of the path of this cutoff low -- if the low even materializes -- would potentially get hammered with many inches of snow. And if the low forms, wherever it tracks, drought-stricken areas of the southeast would likely see beneficial rains.

Stay tuned -- winter ain't over yet!!!!

Quick update: No ice Sunday; cold shot early week

Models quickly and strongly backed off the idea of any sort of ice situation Sunday -- now we should just look for a chilly rain.

In the wake of that system a brief, but strong cold shot -- highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s type of thing.

Then another warmup.

Prospect for snow before month's end -- very low.

And as you know, once we cross into March, every day that goes by dramatically reduces our snow chances -- certainly possible (see:1993) but increasingly unlikely.

Good news: A shot at winter weather; bad news ....

.....it would be ice if we get it.

An interesting setup being depicted by the last two runs of the GFS model -- this is what is a called a "Miller B' system -- low pressure forms over the western Gulf coast or southern Mississippi valley, tracks northeast toward or even west of the Appalachians, then the low "jumps" east and reforms off the N.C. coast.

As you can see by the following three maps of the 18z run of the GFS, a cold-air damming situation occurs late Saturday into Sunday.

Here is the wee hours Sunday morning. You can see precip moving in. Note the strong (1033 mb) high pressure system parked over New England, pumping in cold, dry air.
Now for dawn on Sunday. The high is still over Maine (although slightly weaker at 1030 mb) and precip is flooding the area, even as the shallow layer of cold air is pumped in from the north.
And early Sunday afternoon. You can still see the CAD "signature" although it has retreated to the north.

Still, computer models are notorious for UNDERforecasting the strength of cold air damming events, so we'll have to see.

Bottom line -- still in the 5-6 day range -- far too soon to even attach probabilities to this. And to be sure, ice storms are events to root AGAINST, not for. But mainly, this is a reminder that we are still well within the window of time when winter events are possible.

Another note -- a few more frames ahead and you would see the low jump off the coast, then a big shot of arctic air will plunge southeast early next week. There are some hints we might see a system during that time, but that's all we have are hints right now.

Stay tuned.

Winter weather outlook for the next two weeks

For snowlovers, in a word: Yuck!

It's not a particularly warm pattern, but all the storms projected by models are "cutters" -- they drive northeastward toward the Great Lakes, passing to our west. There is almost no way to get winter weather in the Carolinas when storms pass to our west.

Anyway, this pattern rinses and repeats a number of times in the next 2 weeks.

There are SOME indications we move back to a more favorable pattern around Feb. 10 or so, but we'll have to see about that.

Bottom line: It won't be balmy by any stretch (highs generally in the 50s) and there will be some cold-air damming events that lead to chilly rains. But as far as snow goes, we're at least two weeks away from a realistic shot.

Bummer!

Looking ahead to next week

Not sure what the hype is regarding potential storms next week -- models are not impressive.

There is some indication some light freezing rain might break out Tuesday morning before quickly changing to rain, but now the models aren't even forecasting much precip with that system.

Same with Thursday.

It will be a chilly week -- somewhat below normal (tonight, well below normal with lows in the teens to near 10), but doesn't look as storm as it did a few days ago.

Then, we warm up slightly the following week.

That will put us past the midway point of climatological winter, but February is a strong months for us in terms of winter potential, so don't give up the ship.

I'll be on a business trip next week, so updates will be less frequent unless I see something very compelling and have time to post.

All over but the shouting

Radar upstream of us is thinning out -- it will get below freezing shortly, so whatever falls will stick, but I don't see much falling -- maybe a dusting.

Thanks for sticking it out all you observation posters -- I haven't looked closely at down the road, but the pattern remains decent so we'll have some more shots -- we'll get us a good one here soon, hopefully.

Sorry this one didn't pan out -- I sure wish it had.

1:45 p.m.: Snow showing up -- is it too late

Concerned that the radar back over N. Ga. is thinning out -- hoping our precip doesn't poop out before the VERY tardy cold air arrives in force. We'll be wondering how we lacked cold air tomorrow and tommorow night when it's bone-chilling cold, esp. at night with lows in the teens.

We can start posting comments in this post because the other had gotten so long.

It's really fun to share observations, but if you are trolling I will start deleting your posts.

11:00 a.m -- tracking the storm

OK, want to make a nice clean thread for observations -- use the comment tool to post conditions where you are.

Most of N. Georgia now changing to snow -- cold air racing down the mountains.

Will it beat the precip???????

10:30 a.m. update: Still hope

Frankly, my love for snow is being overcome with my fascination in this system.

First, temps and dewpoints are CRASHING to our north and west.

Go this link and then hover over "dew," which is dewpoints. You can see the arctic air pouring in from the northwest. As precip falls through this drier air it will cool the surface temperature.

Dewpoints in the mid 20s have made it as far as Henderson County.

Now, check out this radar loop.

Clearly, we are going to see precipitation.

Now, the fascinating part -- will the cold air beat or meet the precip?

This is why this is such an unusual system and why the professional forecasters have been pulling their hair out over it.

Good news: There has been a changover to snow in some places in N. Ga.

More good news: NAM puts us back in to about .4-.5 inches of precip.

Bad news: Clearly the models overestimated the speed at which cold air would arrive.

Verdict: There aren't many times you can be 2-4 hours away from an event and STILL not know what's going to happen.

I think we will see snow today -- whether it's a quick burst at the end of a long rain or accumulating snows remains to be seen.

Watch that radar and local observations for the verdict.

IMPORTANT: Rutherford County posters -- please share your conditions as well as Cleveland County folks on the west side of the county -- when you turn sharply colder, the rest of us will be soon to follow. Also, it will be interesting to know the intensity of the precip band that's moving in, so Gaffney folks and others on the southwest, let us know how hard it rains at the start.

Let's not give up hope!

6:50 am. update: Hopes are high

Overnight, the National Weathe Service saw something they liked in the radar trends. Check out this snippet from their area forecast discussion:

I FEEL FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT A SMALL PART OF THE FA WILL SEE WARNING CRITERIA...AND THATAREA MAY WELL BE ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR.

The "FA" is their forecast area and "warning criteria" snows would be 4 inches or more.

Radar trends look OK to me -- I don't see where we're a mortal lock for big precip, but the shield is definitely north of where models said it would be.

It's warm -- low 40s -- but don't let that fool you -- the arctic air is racing in from the east -- it's snow in places like Tuscaloosa and other points in Alabama and Ga. have winter precip. As mentioned before, we'll start out as a short period of rain before changing over -- if we do, in fact, see precip.

I'm going to look at some more data but it's primarily radar-watching time.

Fingers crossed!

0z GFS: Guess what?

It trended west -- not a lot, but by golly, by the looks of the maps it checks in back up to about .3-.4 inches of liquid.

Where does that leave us?

Apparently, only the snowman knows.

You saw my call earlier today (felt like I needed to put a prediction out there before, you know, the event actually begins, which it will in about 12 hours).

It showed the highest probability being 1-2 inches
Next highest 1 inch or less
And next highest 2-4 inches.

I'll stick with that while confessing I really have no idea what is going to happen tomorrow -- those are nothing more than educated guesses.

Off to bed -- I'm going to try and get up early for an early morning update -- by then we should know how the event will unfold.

Thanks for all your support!

0z NAM: A painful betrayal

The NAM has been our friend in the leadup this storm. It's the one that first latched on to the storm and it's the model that has kept the highest precip totals over the past few days.

Tonight, after all that flirting, it dumped us.

The 0z NAM lurched south taking most of its precip with it. Instead of a 4-6 inch snow, it leaves us with a paltry .25 inches of precip -- barely enough for an inch, maybe 2 of snow. This puts it squarely in the GFS camp and means the chances of a big snow -- as I have feared all day -- have greatly diminished.

Here is the 0z NAM precip map for the storm.
Here's the same map, but from the 18z NAM.

While from afar the differences may seem subtle, if you zoom in, you see that the dark blue area of precip (.5 or higher) that brushed the southeast corner of Cleveland County has retreated 80 miles to the southeast (we were hoping for an 80 mile move THE OTHER WAY).

Now, there is model agreement that this is a very minor event for us. Worse yet, any type of further move east could result in just a dusting of snow or no snow at all.

Is there hope?
A glimmer or two. First, temps are great. There may be a quick initial period of rain, but it will quickly and permanently be cold enough for snow. Second, radar trends from the Gulf Coast still aren't matching up with the models' short term forecasts. It could be simply a complex system that the models are not and will not correctly forecast -- it has happened before. But that's hoping, not forecasting.

I would now place heavy emphasis on a marginal to minor event from a dusting to 1 inch, possibly 2.

Maybe the 0z GFS will do the same flip flop the other way, but this one is looking like a very near and very frustrating miss.

3:30 p.m. update: Some good signs

A few good signs.

1) The 18z NAM inched west. It now gives us .5 inches of precip again -- probably a 2-4 inch snow. 18z GFS out later this afternoon -- it will REALLY tell the tale.
2) Radar trends are good. None of the models projected precipitation making it north of the La./Ark. border, which has obviously happened -- for us it's all about north trends with precip. You can follow this all night
3) The EURO -- which had not been our friend for this entire storm -- made a late jump north this afternoon. The very short term is hardly this model's specialty, but we'll take any trend we can get.
4) WBTV -- a weather operation which I greatly respect -- is calling for 4-6 inches in our area. Frankly, I can't believe they did that and I don't think that will verify, but it shows that some pros have confidence in the upper end of the forecast.

The new weather service forecast is, I said earlier, for 1-3 inches. I think that's prudent and probably where I would fall if you pinned me down.

Precip will likely start as a rain snow mix before quickly changing to all snow -- heaviest precip should be late morning/early afternoon.

Here's the latest breakdown:

No precip: 2 percent
All rain: less than 1 percent
Marginal event (1 inch or less of snow): 27 percent
Minor event (1-2 inches): 34 percent
Moderate event (2-4 inches) 24 percent
Major event (4-6 inches) 8 percent
Big dog event (6 inches or higher) 5 percent


As you can see, I'm giving us a 58 percent chance of an inch of snow or more. Of course, the half empty way to look at it is 30 percent chance of a dusting to nothing.

We'll see!