Welcome rain Wednesday

After a long blogging absence, the weather brings me back.

We have a very unusual pattern developing over the next 36 hours -- the weather map looks more like fall or even winter than summer.

That won't be reflected so much in temperatures -- although it will be noticeably cooler Wed. under cloud cover -- but it will be reflected in un-summer like precipitation.

Usually, this time of year, our best shot at rain is from thunderstorms.

But tomorrow will see a prolonged rain event over parts of the southeast.

Here's the catch -- much like a winter storm, this is a close call for us.

SOMEBODY, is going to get well over an inch of rain over a wide area, but the cutoff is sharp from north to south.

Check out the latest run of the GFS computer model seen here.

As you can see, areas of S.C., Ga. and Alabama will see 2, maybe even 3 inches of precip from tonight through Wed. night.

BUT, as you move north through S.C., the rainfall totals diminish greatly -- Chester sees 1.25 inches, Greenville-Spartanburg .75 inches and by the time you get to Gaffney, it's down to .50 inches -- we're in the .25-.50 inch range. Nothing to sneeze at, but hardly drought-busting rain.

The latest run of the NAM model, seen here, paints a slightly rosier picture, giving us close to an inch of rain.

The folks that specialize in this forecasting with the NOAA have generated this precip forecast map.

It cheats toward the NAM's higher totals for us.

Bottom line -- we're going to see some rain tomorrow, in all likelihood. It will range anywhere from a minor .25-type event to a more significant .75- to 1 inch rain. Remember though, even if the totals are smaller, this will be more valuable precip because it will cover a large area as opposed to thunderstorms which hit some areas but miss others entirely.

For Legion fans and organizers, after Wednesday's rain, we fall back to typical widely scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Temperatures should be typical of this time of year -- nothing to severe in terms of heat.

N. Shelby graduation address

I was incredibly honored to be asked to speak to the graduating class of North Shelby School -- an institution which has my highest respect. Below are my remarks, which lean heavily on a story to which I linked in this space a while back.

Good morning distinguished graduates of North Shelby School. And good morning as well to all students, teachers, staff, parents and other special guests.
We're going to talk baseball today. I'm a huge baseball fan -- used to have those Strat-O-Matic board games where you roll 20-sided dice and look on some chart with teensie type to see if the batter got a hit.
As an adult, there is nothing more relaxing than taking in a game at the ol' ballpark.
And there is nothing more exciting in baseball or softball than a home run. Announcers try to come up with a special "call" after a big blast. "Going, going, gone" "It might be, it could be, it is" and other famous calls bring back memories.
My favorite home run call comes from Hall of Fame broadcaster Dick Enberg, who, after a home run, would say "touch 'em all!" of course referring to the four bases.
And that brings me to a story I want to tell you about. You may have seen the story on TV.
In Washington state, a senior on a small college women's softball team comes to bat in one of the last games of her career. Despite being a solid player, she is small in stature. Yet, through scrappy play and hard work, she has kept a spot on the team. Still, she bats near the bottom of the lineup and she has never hit a home run in her career.
This time at bat, however, everything comes together -- she swings as hard as she can, makes perfect contact and the ball sails over the fence.
Imagine that euphoria! At the very end of her last season -- her first homerun!
In her excitement to circle the bases, she misses first base. Then, when she stops to go back, the unthinkable happens -- she steps awkwardly and severely injures her knee. Now, she is on the infield dirt, writhing in pain.
Obviously she is in need of medical attention, but what about the homerun?
By rule, she has to touch each base for the home run to count. Also by rule, her coaches or teammates are not allowed to assist her around the bases.
The umpires confer and decide that she will be awarded a single unless she can make it around herself.
She can not.
Just as the coaches were about to pick her up to carry her back to the dugout, extinguishing her dreams of a first-ever home run, another voice is heard.
"Can I help her around?"
The umpires, coaches and players turn to see that it is the first baseman making the offer. A MEMBER OF THE OTHER TEAM!
Her name was Mallory Holtman and she held every record in the book at the opposing team -- lots and lots of home runs dotted her stat sheet. She was also a senior
The umps confer and find no reason why an opposing player can't assist the baserunner. So she and another teammate lift the runner carefully and start around the bases. They stop at second so the injured player can gingerly rest her foot on the bag ... and so on , until they reach home plate.
Put yourselves in the shoes of those players. Really, close your eyes and feel the moment -- a dusty softball field. Pretend you are the first baseman -- you have literally chosen to help the other team score runs -- because it was the right thing to do. Now, the injured baserunner -- you are realizing a moment of glory that you could not have done without the help of others. And imagine the spectacle from afar -- in the stands. For one moment, the team colors all melt into one and the scoreboard reveals that all involved are winners. Talk about "touching 'em all!"
By the time the players turned for home, fans of both schools stood on their feet, cheering and crying and realizing they were witnessing the ultimate in human accomplishment, compassion and integrity.
There will be cheers and tears here today as well.
But lest you graduates think you are the injured player in this story, let me set you straight. I've spent enough time at North Shelby to know that you graduates and all North Shelby students are the first basemen in the lives of the staff, teachers and parents who are a part of this school as well as this entire Cleveland County community.
How many times have the folks at North Shelby turned their heads in wonder because of something you'd said or done? You inspire so many in so many ways. And you have taught us important lessons of life as well.
While you have learned a TON since being at this great institution, you probably didn't realize how much you have taught others during your time here.
Here are just a few of those things cited by the people who know and love you
Kierra Bostic,
Kierra has taught us all patience. She has also taught us that sometimes things fall apart but with enough strength and determination, she has always somehow been able to put things back together and continue on.

Nyda Thiypkomol

Nyda has taught us that great friends mean a lot in life. This is carried out through her daily activities and demonstrated through her facial expressions and body language when she is in social situations. She adores her friends and appears so comfortable with everything when they are surrounding her. She loves to join her friends in singing clips from different songs, and just laughing and talking in general.

Brett Washburn
Bret has demonstrated sharing and caring for others. He reminds us how important it is to be sensitive towards others and their needs. He has taught all of us that nothing is ever too small to say thank you for or to always remember how important it is to be mannerly by things like welcoming someone into our class and making them feel such a part of what we do. He is the best with teacher cadets, student nurses, HO students, volunteers, etc. of any student I have ever known.
O'Bryan Little
Friendship is important. He talks about how he likes to hang out and do fun things. He looks forward to doing something special everyday. O’Bryan has learned the value of money and how important it is for him to manage his money. He wants to live on his own one day and realizes that it is important to be responsible. He has taught me that once he was reliant on others for almost everything but now he has begun a new pathway in his life. He is moving into adulthood in a world that has so much he can capture and he has his net ready.
Orlando Lee
Most definitely, "To never give up" Through all his adversity and illness along the way, he always returns as good as new with a smile and often a hug. He has also taught us the importance of a beautiful smile.
I don't want to diminish the incredible education you have received here at North Shelby from the terrific staff here and the untold support of family, friends, churches and others.
But you need to be aware of what you have given in return.
While the world tries to tell you that you can't get around the bases to claim a home run, we know differently -- you get around and you help US get around!
And remember, any of us - -ANY OF US -- can take that awkward step back to the bag that causes us to be unable to continue -- it might be our fault, or simply a cruel twist of fate. But it's how we respond to others who have suffered that misstep that defines us every bit as much as how we react to our own tough times.
Truth be told, it is all of US who need your help understanding and practicing the truly important things in life -- compassion, caring, trust and love.
Often times addresses like these come with advice -- honestly, I wouldn't presume to offer advice to such an illustrious group. But I will leave you a few words of wisdom handed down to me over the years.
First, work hard, play harder.
Cry every once in a while, but laugh all the time.
Ask for help when needed, offer help before being asked.
And finally, be ready when someone lies on the ground in front of you, in agony because of a cruel twist. Whether it be with a simple smile or strength of body, mind or spirit, help them. Help them home.
Thank you for what you have done for your families, your school and your community.
Thank you for carrying us all around the basepaths with your smiles and your effort and your determination.
Thank you and congratulations to the North Shelby graduating class of 2009.
For all of you, this graduation is a long, towering, majestic home run.
Now, as you circle the bases, please look at the faces of family members and those associate with this school, and know that you touched 'em all.

"Settled science?"

Don't you hate it when the facts get in the way of something that is supposedly no longer up for discussion.

Al Gore wants to call the question of global warming "settled." He may be right -- it appears to be "settled" that the earth is no longer warming and won't warm for another decade -- at least.

Check out this article which I doubt you'll see quoted on the evening news.

Much like Y2K and all sorts of other calamaties propagated by the far left to stamp out capitalism and grow the government, I fear that global warming will be viewed by historians as one of the greatest shams in human history.

An amazing example of sportsmanship

I stumbled across this story on ESPN.com.

I think you'll find it incredibly uplifting.

History may not be kind to Al Gore

If this scientist's theory is right, Al Gore could very well go down as the biggest joke in American history. Further, the liberal "ski is falling" strategy might be dealt a deathblow.

A remarkable profile/essay on race

This piece from the Atlantic magazine is lengthy, but very compelling. The writers followed Bill Cosby around for an extended time and has used his observations and conversation as the basis for this essay. I'll be interested in your thoughts.

American Idol

OK, now that I'm emerging from my "another-winter-without-decent-snow" funk, it's time to start blogging again on non-meteorological matters.

One of those is American Idol -- my family's favorite show.

This year, though, it seems to me there is a big problem -- it's a one-man show.

David Cook is CLEARLY heads above the other competitors -- can you ever remember it being so cut and dried so early in the show? There are still 7 contestants, but I don't think you can make a case that any of them belong on the same stage as Cook.

None of the four girls can compete and I'm quickly tiring of "Little David" -- too much like a Mousketeer.

Anyway, Cook is the man -- if the doesn't win it'll be because America is clueless not because anyone on the show can touch his talent.

Let's have fun with this ......

OK, this is it for the winter, so we're going to milk it for all it's worth.

The 18z run of the GFS is out ..

What do you think of the following two maps?

Monday evening at dusk.
Wee hours Tuesday morning.

It doesn't get much prettier than that -- more than an inch of precip -- temps look great. Plain and simple, it's yet another model run depicting an historic snow event for N.C. -- 6-12 inches.

I'm no more confident of this panning out than this afternoon -- and won't be until at least Friday, but it's hard to ignore maps that look so tasty.

I might stay up late for the 0z model runs - if so, update around midnight.

Late March snow? Can it happen? Yes!

UPDATE at 3:02 p.m.: SEE BOTTOM OF POST FOR NEW INFORMATION.

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I can't believe I'm writing this, but our best threat for snow this entire winter may very well be next Monday, THE DAY AFTER EASTER!!!

First, some history. You may think a late-March snowstorm is unprecedented. If so, you didn't live here in 1983. As you can see from the above map, we received a major 8-inch dump on that date -- exactly 25 years ago this Monday.

Now, to the current setup.

The first thing I want to tell you about is something called the NAO -- North Atlantic Oscillation. All winter, the NAO has been in a positive phase. This basically means that there is no "blocking" over Greenland, no high pressure in that region to "lock in" in the cold. This means that areas of cold air are transient, they move in and the high pressure slides off the coast before the next storm makes it end.

Well, the NAO is heading toward a negative state -- just in time for spring!

But before Old Man Winter heads into hibernation, he may have a trick up his sleeve.

I'm going to give you lots of links today, lest you think I've fallen off my rocker.

First, the NWS puts out a medium range forecast multiple times a day.

Here is the top of the latest discussion:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD744 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008 VALID 12Z SUN MAR 23 2008 - 12Z WED MAR 26 2008 ...POTENTIAL FOR LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM FROM THE MID ATLANTICSTATES TO NEW ENGLAND...MODELS ARE CONVERGING TOWARD EAST COAST/W ATLC CYCLOGENESIS DAY5...WITH THE 00Z GFS AND GEFS MEAN TRENDING STRONGLY TOWARD THEDEVELOPED SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWFAND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. SEVERAL OF THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERSARE AS INTENSE AS THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THIS LOW...WITH A SIMILARTRACK FROM SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO THE ATLANTIC BENCHMARK. TAKEN LITERALLY...THIS GUIDANCE THREATENS A FOOT OF SNOW FROM NEARRICHMOND NORTHEASTWARD TO BOSTON...INCLUDING WASHINGTONDC...PHILADELPHIA...AND NEW YORK CITY. THERE IS PLENTY OFPRECEDENT FOR LATE SEASON HEAVY SNOWFALL...EVEN OVER THE CAROLINASAND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION. IN MANY WAYS...MARCH IS ANIDEAL MONTH FOR LARGE STORMS AND IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHERRIGHT...THEY CAN BE HISTORIC EVENTS. SOME OF THE YEARS THAT HADDEEP LATE SEASON SNOWS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THIS REGION IN THISREGION IN LATE MARCH 1942 1958 1964 1971 1974 1983.

Now, on to the very latest run of the computer model called GFS: (if you want to skip to the good part, check out the Wee hours Tuesday morning map)

Sunday evening. You can see high pressure building in as our storm gathers over Texas

Wee hours Monday morning. Still cold, storm on the move.

Monday rush hour. Moisture streaming northward. Check out the three separate high pressures

systems to the north -- they are in perfect position to feed in cold air.

Monday early afternoon. The 850mb freezing line -- very generally a rain-snow line, although less so this time of year because of the higher sun angle -- is on a line from Macon to Augusta to Columbia to Wilmington. We pick up a couple tenths of an inch of precip.

Monday evening. Now, if I saw this map in January, I'd be going nuts. PERFECT! 850 line well to our south. About .5 inches of precip. A gorgeous looking map.

Wee hours Tuesday morning. Another tench of an inch of precip.

TOTAL PRECIP MAP FOR THIS PERIOD. That's about .75 inches. Even if you figure this snow is wet and slushy, we're talking 2-4 inches, perhaps even more.

What about other models?

The UKMET and the Canadian model both show a slightly more suppressed solution -- which is good, since the trend has been to move storms NW (BUT, remember, that's been in a world where the NAO is positive -- this is an entirely different pattern).

The 12z Euro JUST came out and .... KABOOM! A major hit for upstate S.C./all of N.C./and up the coast into Va.

So, what's working against us with this storm?

Well, other than pretty model runs just about everything.

1) Climatology. A good definition is: If it doesn't usually happen, it won't happen. While possible, it is quite rare to see measureable snow here this late in the season.

2) Sun angle. One of the reasons its rare is that the sun is much more potent this time of year. That's why the 850 boundary I mentioned before can't be used as a rain-snow line in March like it can in January -- still, that GFS run shows plenty of room to spare cold-weather wise.

3) This winter's pattern. The trend has been for storms to cut up the Appalachians rather than off the coast, where we need them to go. Of course, this is a totally different pattern.

4) Time. This is still 5-6 days out -- hardly a model "sweet spot." The models will very likely lose this storm, then regain it over the next few days. If the GFS or Euro shows the storm in its Friday runs, it will be time to get serious.

What's working FOR us?

1) This STORM's pattern. While the overall winter pattern has stunk, lots of good pieces are in place for this system.

2) We have some wiggle room. There is plenty of precip and we even have a degree or two of cold air to work with as the models continue to evolve.

3) For at least one run, we've got the Euro in our corner -- by far the superior mid-range model.

3) We’re due! Come on – we haven’t had real snow in eons. I don’t care if Peter Cottontail has already done his deal.

Bottom line: Regardless of what the models show, only a fool would predict snow 5-6 days out in mid-late March. But the truth is, we’ve got a chance, which is more than we’ve been able to say for most of this winter. At the least, the week of Spring Break for school children will be chilly and probably wet, at least at the start.

More to come!

3:02 p.m. WED. UPDATE. Wanted you to see an excerpt from the NWS HPC discussion which was updated just after I posted:

... BEST ONSENSUS AT THIS TIME BASE ON NEWER 12Z MODEL RUNS FOR A SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER STORM EVENT IS FROM THE SRN APPLCHNSACROSS WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF NC/MUCH OF VA/MD/DELMARVA ANDCOASTAL NJ. AREA IS UNDER RIGHT REAR UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT PUTTINGMUCH OF THIS AREA UNDER FAVORABLE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HVYPCPN POTENTIAL.

Winter's final tease

The big upper low we talked about has shifted west -- according to the models. That puts us on the warm side of the storm which means no snow. This is not a big surprise, but hope springs eternal.

Which brings us to winter's last hurrah.

The 0z run of the GFS model -- remarkably, really -- shows a lovely snowfall for N.C. at the end of the week. The previous two runs of the model had taken a system that it originally showed missing us way to the south and gradually creeping it northward.

Now, it shows a direct hit.

Check out these maps:

Here we are early Friday afternoon. Low pressure forming in the Gulf. As you can see, strong high pressure is located over the Great Lake (not over New England and getting ready to slide off the coast which has been this winter's pattern).
Now, we skip ahead to the wee hours of Saturday morning. The storm is now crossing the Big Bend of Florida. Cold air is settling in as precip breaks out. High pressure in great spot.
By dawn Saturday, low is cranking off the coast, cold air funneling in. Snow falling.
Finally, the prettiest map of them all, early Saturday evening. A solid swath of 2-4 inches of snow.
And another inch or two late Saturday night/Sunday morning.


So will this happen?
Of course not!

Seriously, LOTS of thing working against this storm:
1) This winter's pattern. So far, virtually every storm has tracked to our west, even when models showed a near perfect track in the days prior to the storm. The only exception is the "non-snow" we had a few weeks back when the cold air didn't make it here in time.
2) The time of year. It's simply more difficult to get March snows than Dec. through Feb. One reason is the angle of the sun, which makes it harder to cool down the atmosphere.
3) We're still 6 days out -- hardly the model sweet spot.
4) We're talking about 1 run of 1 model -- not exactly a consensus.

On the positive side?
1) We're due! I mean, it's got to snow some day, right?
2) The Euro has the storm missing us to the south which means the inevitable northern trend would be our friend.
3) The main ingredients are in good position -- the 0z run shows sprawling strong high pressure positioned well to our north and the track of the low pressure through the Gulf and off the SE coast is PRIMO!

So, we're still talking about a very low odds event, but it's worth tracking and is our last real show, in all likelihood, until next winter.

Anyway, if you don't see any update, it means this one is fizzling like all the rest -- hopefully, though, lots of posts!

Weather update: Major storm looming?

As you probably know by now, the mountains got hammered with a nice snow today. A few stray flurries and snow showers even made it down to our neck of the woods.

Looming, however, is a potentially MAJOR storm. While it is not likely to impact us with snow (although not impossible) it could be a HUGE snow producer for the mountains of N.C./SW Va./Eastern Tenn./extreme NE Ga.

The main feature of this storm is a "cutoff" area of low pressure. These types of lows can be tremendous precip producers and come with a sort of "built in" cold air mechanism.

The big surprise snowstorm that hammered Charlotte and Rock Hill a few years back was from a cutoff low.

Here is a map showing the cutoff low at the upper levels (12z GFS run -- afternoon of March 5).
Obviously, there is tight temperature gradient.
Now, 6 hours later, the evening of March 5.

Now, here is the precip that has fallen, according to the 12z GFS during that span.

Amazingly, the European model shows a similar solution.

Now, a few points:

1) This would be an historic storms and historic storms that are projected on models 7 days out rarely verify.
2) We also are working against climatology -- March storms are rare -- not unprecedented, but rare.
3) It IS interesting that both the Euro and GFS are on to the same type of solution.

Bottom line: Way too early to even get excited about this a little bit, but definitely something to track. Whoever ends up just west of the path of this cutoff low -- if the low even materializes -- would potentially get hammered with many inches of snow. And if the low forms, wherever it tracks, drought-stricken areas of the southeast would likely see beneficial rains.

Stay tuned -- winter ain't over yet!!!!

Quick update: No ice Sunday; cold shot early week

Models quickly and strongly backed off the idea of any sort of ice situation Sunday -- now we should just look for a chilly rain.

In the wake of that system a brief, but strong cold shot -- highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s type of thing.

Then another warmup.

Prospect for snow before month's end -- very low.

And as you know, once we cross into March, every day that goes by dramatically reduces our snow chances -- certainly possible (see:1993) but increasingly unlikely.

Good news: A shot at winter weather; bad news ....

.....it would be ice if we get it.

An interesting setup being depicted by the last two runs of the GFS model -- this is what is a called a "Miller B' system -- low pressure forms over the western Gulf coast or southern Mississippi valley, tracks northeast toward or even west of the Appalachians, then the low "jumps" east and reforms off the N.C. coast.

As you can see by the following three maps of the 18z run of the GFS, a cold-air damming situation occurs late Saturday into Sunday.

Here is the wee hours Sunday morning. You can see precip moving in. Note the strong (1033 mb) high pressure system parked over New England, pumping in cold, dry air.
Now for dawn on Sunday. The high is still over Maine (although slightly weaker at 1030 mb) and precip is flooding the area, even as the shallow layer of cold air is pumped in from the north.
And early Sunday afternoon. You can still see the CAD "signature" although it has retreated to the north.

Still, computer models are notorious for UNDERforecasting the strength of cold air damming events, so we'll have to see.

Bottom line -- still in the 5-6 day range -- far too soon to even attach probabilities to this. And to be sure, ice storms are events to root AGAINST, not for. But mainly, this is a reminder that we are still well within the window of time when winter events are possible.

Another note -- a few more frames ahead and you would see the low jump off the coast, then a big shot of arctic air will plunge southeast early next week. There are some hints we might see a system during that time, but that's all we have are hints right now.

Stay tuned.

Winter weather outlook for the next two weeks

For snowlovers, in a word: Yuck!

It's not a particularly warm pattern, but all the storms projected by models are "cutters" -- they drive northeastward toward the Great Lakes, passing to our west. There is almost no way to get winter weather in the Carolinas when storms pass to our west.

Anyway, this pattern rinses and repeats a number of times in the next 2 weeks.

There are SOME indications we move back to a more favorable pattern around Feb. 10 or so, but we'll have to see about that.

Bottom line: It won't be balmy by any stretch (highs generally in the 50s) and there will be some cold-air damming events that lead to chilly rains. But as far as snow goes, we're at least two weeks away from a realistic shot.

Bummer!

Looking ahead to next week

Not sure what the hype is regarding potential storms next week -- models are not impressive.

There is some indication some light freezing rain might break out Tuesday morning before quickly changing to rain, but now the models aren't even forecasting much precip with that system.

Same with Thursday.

It will be a chilly week -- somewhat below normal (tonight, well below normal with lows in the teens to near 10), but doesn't look as storm as it did a few days ago.

Then, we warm up slightly the following week.

That will put us past the midway point of climatological winter, but February is a strong months for us in terms of winter potential, so don't give up the ship.

I'll be on a business trip next week, so updates will be less frequent unless I see something very compelling and have time to post.

All over but the shouting

Radar upstream of us is thinning out -- it will get below freezing shortly, so whatever falls will stick, but I don't see much falling -- maybe a dusting.

Thanks for sticking it out all you observation posters -- I haven't looked closely at down the road, but the pattern remains decent so we'll have some more shots -- we'll get us a good one here soon, hopefully.

Sorry this one didn't pan out -- I sure wish it had.

1:45 p.m.: Snow showing up -- is it too late

Concerned that the radar back over N. Ga. is thinning out -- hoping our precip doesn't poop out before the VERY tardy cold air arrives in force. We'll be wondering how we lacked cold air tomorrow and tommorow night when it's bone-chilling cold, esp. at night with lows in the teens.

We can start posting comments in this post because the other had gotten so long.

It's really fun to share observations, but if you are trolling I will start deleting your posts.

11:00 a.m -- tracking the storm

OK, want to make a nice clean thread for observations -- use the comment tool to post conditions where you are.

Most of N. Georgia now changing to snow -- cold air racing down the mountains.

Will it beat the precip???????

10:30 a.m. update: Still hope

Frankly, my love for snow is being overcome with my fascination in this system.

First, temps and dewpoints are CRASHING to our north and west.

Go this link and then hover over "dew," which is dewpoints. You can see the arctic air pouring in from the northwest. As precip falls through this drier air it will cool the surface temperature.

Dewpoints in the mid 20s have made it as far as Henderson County.

Now, check out this radar loop.

Clearly, we are going to see precipitation.

Now, the fascinating part -- will the cold air beat or meet the precip?

This is why this is such an unusual system and why the professional forecasters have been pulling their hair out over it.

Good news: There has been a changover to snow in some places in N. Ga.

More good news: NAM puts us back in to about .4-.5 inches of precip.

Bad news: Clearly the models overestimated the speed at which cold air would arrive.

Verdict: There aren't many times you can be 2-4 hours away from an event and STILL not know what's going to happen.

I think we will see snow today -- whether it's a quick burst at the end of a long rain or accumulating snows remains to be seen.

Watch that radar and local observations for the verdict.

IMPORTANT: Rutherford County posters -- please share your conditions as well as Cleveland County folks on the west side of the county -- when you turn sharply colder, the rest of us will be soon to follow. Also, it will be interesting to know the intensity of the precip band that's moving in, so Gaffney folks and others on the southwest, let us know how hard it rains at the start.

Let's not give up hope!

6:50 am. update: Hopes are high

Overnight, the National Weathe Service saw something they liked in the radar trends. Check out this snippet from their area forecast discussion:

I FEEL FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT A SMALL PART OF THE FA WILL SEE WARNING CRITERIA...AND THATAREA MAY WELL BE ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR.

The "FA" is their forecast area and "warning criteria" snows would be 4 inches or more.

Radar trends look OK to me -- I don't see where we're a mortal lock for big precip, but the shield is definitely north of where models said it would be.

It's warm -- low 40s -- but don't let that fool you -- the arctic air is racing in from the east -- it's snow in places like Tuscaloosa and other points in Alabama and Ga. have winter precip. As mentioned before, we'll start out as a short period of rain before changing over -- if we do, in fact, see precip.

I'm going to look at some more data but it's primarily radar-watching time.

Fingers crossed!