Tuesday, October 18, 2005

Perfect storm II?

You are probably all aware that Tropical Storm Wilma (soon to be Hurricane Wilma) has formed in the western Caribbean. The projected path for Wilma eventually is forecasted to be across the Florida peninsula.

What you may NOT have heard is that there are longer range models that show Wilma "phasing" with another major low pressure system over the Great Lakes area.

Now, I've never fully understood this phasing business, but basically what it means is that two weather systems feed off each other and create -- in effect -- one larger system.

Also, when systems phase they tend to draw closer together. So, while the project track I linked above shows Wilma turning pretty sharply to the NW, it could veer back to the North or even to the northeast if it phases with this other system. That would mean a second landfall somewhere on the east coast -- it would ALSO mean unbelievably high winds and heavy rain for the entire eastern seaboard.

Here is the 168 hour European model showing a very strong Wilma, just off the New England coast.

Also, regardless of where Wilma ends up, we will likely see sharply cooler temperatures by the weekend. Maybe even the first frost of the year -- although this is all so far out, it's way to early to call that a prediction.

This is definitely something to keep an eye on.


Bryan Hanks said...

Thanks for updating your blog, Skip! Some of us jump on here every day and it's been pretty dry the past few weeks.

Skip Foster said...

Thanks, Bryan. Been swamped (who isn't?). I'll try to be more regular (uh, well ... you know what I mean).