Saturday, December 06, 2008


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Monday, December 01, 2008


Remember the old Saturday Night Live skit (Jane, you ignorant ....). Well, here is a back and forth on the current pattern.

Point: It's still early in the season, Heck, it's not even winter yet.
Counterpoint: Yes, but it's not going to stay cold all season and we're wasting all this cold air without seeing any snow.

Point: That could be sign of a long cold winter with lots of snow chances
Counterpoint: Or that we missed our chance early and Spring starts in late January

Counterpoint: By the way, what happened to your Dec. 4/5 snow storm idea?
Point: Well, it wasn't a forecast, just a period of time to look at.

Counterpoint: That sounds like spin.
Point: Well, it's still POSSIBLE we could see something.

Counterpoint: Is that so? Don't see it here on the last run of the GFS computer model.
Point: Yeah, but it's close -- see that area of precip just off the S.C. coast.

Counterpoint: Horseshoes and hand grenades .....
Point: And you're forgetting about the ensembles (basically, a cluster of models that supplement the main GFS model run). Check out these maps. About half of the 12 ensemble members show some sort of small to moderate snow event for the Carolinas.

Counterpoint: Does the European model have it?
Point: Uhhh ... almost!

Counterpoint: We need to rename this county, Almost County, when it comes to snow.
Point: Not this year, the overall pattern looks good.

Counterpoint: What about this long-range map -- doesn't look too cold to me?
Point: No, but it can't stay cold ALL the time. A lot of pro mets still believe December will be cold overall with better chances of winter storms the farther along we get in the month.

Counterpoint: Sounds like hedging to me.
Point: Well, we've been spoiled early in the season. Did you see Matt's comment in the earlier thread -- November was well below normal temps-wise. December could actually be warmer than November and still be around average.

OK, that's all for point/counterpoint. If anything materializes for our weekend non-event, I'll let you know. In the meantime, still gazing out over the horizon for a possible winter storm.

It appears a major low pressure area will form next week but will move from the lower Miss. valley either up or west of the Appalachian spine. This is a rainmaker for us. Then cold air looks to return.

Back from T'giving vacation -- update coming today

Will have a full update later.

Bottom line: We are wasting a bunch of good early season cold air.

Dec. 4-5 storm has fizzled. Only prospect is next weekend and it's a low probability.

More later today .....