Thursday, May 04, 2006

Predictions

OK, I reserve the right to change these as the election draws near, but I'm going to stick my neck out and make predictions for the main local races in November.


Sheriff:
Incumbent Raymond Hamrick will barely hold off a strong bid by Republican Don Allen -- it will be something like 52-48 or 51-49 Hamrick. And this definitely could change in the next 5 months.

Commissioner:
Again, the Democratic ticket will prevail as Jo Boggs and Eddie Holbrook win over Kelly Hastings and Bill Chambless

Clerk of Court:
I see Sharon Jones emerging from the Democratic runoff and besting Claudia Glenn.

DA:
Democrat Rick Shaffer (helped by the loss of commissioners candidate Ron Schaeffer who might have caused name recognition problems) will defeat Republican lawyer Colin McWhirter.

N.C. House
Finally, a Republican who will win! Incumbent Tim Moore will hold off Democrat Betsy Fonveille.

N.C. Senate
I think this is the toughest race to call. When in doubt, though, go with the incumbent. I'll take Democrat Walter Dalton over GOP challenger Wes Westmoreland.


So, it's a long way until the general election, but if these predictions hold true, it will be a big night locally for Democrats.

We shall see.

What do YOU think?

23 comments:

Anonymous said...

I also think Sharon Jones will emerge over Misty Johnson. She is the best candidate for the job as Clerk of Court. She is fair, HONEST, and most of all has more integrity than any one I have ever met. PLEASE people, make sure you vote MAY 30, in the run-off for Clerk of Court. It is a very important position.

Anonymous said...

Sheriff: Hamrick by a nose
Clerk: Glenn in shocker
DA: Shafer sqeaks by
House: Moore by 14 %
House: Clary big again
Commissioner: Chambless, Holbrook Chambless top vote getter Holbrrok nudges out Hastings then Holbrook switches parties
Senate: Westmoreland extremely close

Big Loser: RAW

Anonymous said...

Don't get BOGGed down in Taxes,

Just Say NO to JO.

Political Smackdown said...

Skip,

take a look at the historic numbers in both Cleveland and Rutherfordton for Dalton.

You may change your mind.

He has won Rutherford by a lower margin each time since his first race.

Wes should return Cleveland to a majority for him, as Davis and Westmoreland.

If Walter continues to struggle in Rutherford, Wes can win that race.

It's one of a precious few NC Free is placing in competitive range.

I think it's a 50/50 call at this point.

Mike

Anonymous said...

Why do you think Betsy won't destroy Tim? She is from Shelby and have more population than Moore's KM.

Anonymous said...

why? because she couldnt even win in shelby....

Anonymous said...

With all county commissioners lobbying for medicaid relief for counties and a county property tax increase likely next year if there is no relief, Dalton's fate will depend on whether he delivers this relief. With Dalton being one of the 5 or so deal makers on the budget, no medicaid relief would indicate that either he opposes it or he does not have the clout he indicates he has.

My prediction: No medicaid relief, Dalton loses.

Anonymous said...

Look for N.C. Free to change it's call to Walter Dalton based on the amount of money Walter will raise v. Westmoreland. Walter is already running his Lt. Gov. race and should pull this one out 55/45 over Westmoreland. With the open seat in 2 years look for the Rep. Senate leaders to turn to someone who can win in both Cleveland and Rutherford counties like the former Senator from Cleveland County, Dennis Davis of Political Smackdown. He can relate to both counties and has won in both counties in the past. As a resident of Rutherford County it will be hard to give up "our" seat. but Davis did a good job of representing all of the people in both counties when he was in office. The problem he ran into was that we all voted for Rutherford County's "favorite son" while Cleveland County voted on "party lines" and Rutherford County was not happy with it's Republican county commissioners firing Walter as county attorney. He will do well in Rutherford County next time if he chooses to run.

Anonymous said...

Dennis Davis?
You gotta be kiddin' me

Anonymous said...

Rutherford County would vote for Davis over over candidates like; former Mayor of Shelby, Rep. Tim Moore, or current candidate Wes Westmoreland. County commissioner Chuck Hill may run, but it seems like Cleveland County will not pass up a chance to take back this seat Davis held before and thus the most likely candidate to win in November. Democrats would like to keep this seat, and will this election because of money, but next time Basnight and his money will be gone and Dalton will be running for Lt. Gov. and Senate Rep. leaders will look for someone who can do well in both counties and has political experience making Davis the frontrunner.

Anonymous said...

theres no way davis will be the front runner... the main reason is republicans dont like or trust him the other is he cant raise money...he would get killed in a primary or general

Anonymous said...

5:01 Are you speaking as a Republican from Cleveland county or Rutherford county or neither. Seems like I saw in your paper the Republican party just gave an award to him and the former mayor for something down there in Cleveland County. As for the money issue,times have changed with Republicans giving money to candidates and I think that he can do much better in todays political climate in Cleveland county and surrounding areas. So who do you see in this race or are you just opposed to Davis?

Anonymous said...

Kelly Hastings will be a stronger advocate for lower taxes, open government and private property rights. He will also work for a sound and basic education and reductions in crime. By working on these issues our economic well-being will be enhanced. Kelly also knows that all citizens must be treated fairly regardless of their political affiliation. He will secure many Republican, conservative Democrat and unaffiliated voters.

Anonymous said...

Kelly Hastings ?
You gotta be kiddin' me.

Anonymous said...

No! Not kidding.

Anonymous said...

Talk to me after November when he comes in 4th. in the commissioners race. Not kiddin'!

Anonymous said...

Type in "commissioner" on the Star's Web site and read their answers on eminent domain. Read it carefully. You might be correct! The extreme left might prevail and you will have higher taxes, a loss of private property rights and more government secrecy. Have it your way! Someone's private property might stand in the way of progress and I guess the government will take it! We hope he does not finish fourth.

Anonymous said...

I have to agree with you, Kelly's the only comission candidate in the forum who was willing to give his views on Asha Degree and illegal immigants. He will be the only one to talk about global warming and the war in the middle east and how the liberal congress is wasting our money. These are the issues voters in Cleveland county need to know where their comissioners stand!

Anonymous said...

Do an article on DSS. They are a strange bunch?

Anonymous said...

Tim Moore is auful.

Anonymous said...

There is lots of fraud at social services. People will lie for benefits. Maybe an article is relevant. Fraud and abuse of the social services can cost taxpayers a tremendous amount of money. We still invite you to read the commissioners' responses on eminent domain. Search "commissioners" on The Star's Web site.

INSIDER said...

PREDICTION: Hamrick looses to Allen by 3-5 %. Hamrick's past and those close to him will drag him down. Results - the county wins!

Anonymous said...

In November:

Incumbent Sheriff Hamrick will slaughter Republician Don Allen by a vast majority.

Clerk's Race:

Mitzi Johnson will favor over Claudia Glenn

DA's Race:

Rick Shaffer will take the lead while Colin McWhirther is trying to figure out how he lost!!!

Commissioner's Race:

Really don't care because none of them are worth voting for and the current one's we have are worthless.

House Seats:

I hope Moore gets beat but it is unlikely because Ms. Fonvielle doesn't have the pull that she needs. Well i guess Moore will destroy us for another four years!! I just wish that a strong canididate would run against Debbie Clary and knock her out of the water!!!!

Senator:

It will be Walter Dalton cause he is the BEST and Wesmoreland has no chance!!!