Dean alert!

Hurricane forecasters are loathe to predict where storms may go beyond 3-5 days, but as a weather fanatic, I can tell you that there is strong model consensus that Tropical Storm Dean will plow through our just north of the Caribbean and either strike the Southeast Coast or enter the Gulf Of Mexico. Here is the 12z run of the GFS model which shows Dean emerging into the Gulf by Tuesday of next week. Other models shows the storm hitting Florida, then re-emerging into the Gulf. The southernmost projections shows the storm perhaps grazing the Yucatan and then striking Texas.

Here is an array of model runs, but only out to 5 days.

Bottom line: If you have travel plans in the Caribbean this weekend, you should watch Dean like a hawk.

And if you have travel plans anywhere on the east coast or Gulf coast the following week into the weekend of Aug. 24, you should keep a wary eye on the tropics.