Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Afternoon weather update: Model madness

The two models that showed a snowstorm for Christmas Day are now world's apart from each other.

In one corner, the European model -- most trusted in the medium range (3-7 days). It backed up last nights run with another appealing solution today -- a major snow storm for the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic -- particularly eastern portions of the state, where a major snowfall is projected.

We would still get in on the act with 2-6 inches of snow, according to this run.

But before you dust off the sleds, the noon run of the GFS model has a very different, if not somewhat bizarre solution. Instead of tracking low pressure along the Gulf Coast and across southern Ga. off the S.C. coast, it takes the low in an unusual NNE direction from lower Mississippi up into Kentucky!

Obviously, this is no good for snow - we stay well on the warm side of the low. While it might bring some welcomed rain, White Christmas would have wait.

By the way, anybody know when the last measureable snowfall fell in Charlotte (more than a trace?).

60 years ago!

At the end of each post I will update my odds of the storm happening. As we get closer, if an event is more imminent, I will make those odds more detailed. And don't forget, for an e-mail alert on these columns, write to

Odds of measureable snowfall: 1 in 30 (down from 1 in 25)
Reasoning: Now only one model showing the storm

No comments: