Monday, December 01, 2008

Point/counterpoint

Remember the old Saturday Night Live skit (Jane, you ignorant ....). Well, here is a back and forth on the current pattern.


Point: It's still early in the season, Heck, it's not even winter yet.
Counterpoint: Yes, but it's not going to stay cold all season and we're wasting all this cold air without seeing any snow.

Point: That could be sign of a long cold winter with lots of snow chances
Counterpoint: Or that we missed our chance early and Spring starts in late January

Counterpoint: By the way, what happened to your Dec. 4/5 snow storm idea?
Point: Well, it wasn't a forecast, just a period of time to look at.

Counterpoint: That sounds like spin.
Point: Well, it's still POSSIBLE we could see something.

Counterpoint: Is that so? Don't see it here on the last run of the GFS computer model.
Point: Yeah, but it's close -- see that area of precip just off the S.C. coast.

Counterpoint: Horseshoes and hand grenades .....
Point: And you're forgetting about the ensembles (basically, a cluster of models that supplement the main GFS model run). Check out these maps. About half of the 12 ensemble members show some sort of small to moderate snow event for the Carolinas.

Counterpoint: Does the European model have it?
Point: Uhhh ... almost!

Counterpoint: We need to rename this county, Almost County, when it comes to snow.
Point: Not this year, the overall pattern looks good.

Counterpoint: What about this long-range map -- doesn't look too cold to me?
Point: No, but it can't stay cold ALL the time. A lot of pro mets still believe December will be cold overall with better chances of winter storms the farther along we get in the month.

Counterpoint: Sounds like hedging to me.
Point: Well, we've been spoiled early in the season. Did you see Matt's comment in the earlier thread -- November was well below normal temps-wise. December could actually be warmer than November and still be around average.

OK, that's all for point/counterpoint. If anything materializes for our weekend non-event, I'll let you know. In the meantime, still gazing out over the horizon for a possible winter storm.

It appears a major low pressure area will form next week but will move from the lower Miss. valley either up or west of the Appalachian spine. This is a rainmaker for us. Then cold air looks to return.

12 comments:

Joseph said...

All this point/counterpoint crap has given me a head ache, I am going to read IceMans blog! LOL!

Anonymous said...

Wow. I'm beinb quoted now. Sweet!

Matt

Anonymous said...

Here's some more quoting material. If December has the exact same temperature as November, it would still be cooler than the last 2 Decembers, and colder than 4 out of the last 10. That's how cold November was folks. And don't bet on December being the same temp. I just looked at the data and you have to go back to 1984 to find a December that was warmer than the previous month. So if you bet the farm on December having an average temp less than 47F, that's a pretty good bet.

The PDO has shifted from a warm phase (1980s-1990s) where it produced predominately El Ninos (remeber that term?) and is now negative phase and should produce more La Ninas. In fact, one is building right now. I would look for December to be normal at best, if not 2-4 degrees below normal. Meaning an average temperature 40-44F. 1976 was the last year we had a colder November with an average temp of 44F. The average for the very next month? 5F cooler than that, 39F. 1976 was also during the last negative PDO phase, just like today.

Just sayin'....

Matt

Anonymous said...

Oh, BTW, the January ('77) after that cold Nov/Dec in 1976? It was BRUTALLY cold. Averge temp was 30F. 20 days it never got out of the 30's.

This *could* be a winter to remember (or forget).

Matt

Anonymous said...

I saw on The Weather Channel's website that this area may get snow showers next Wed., Dec. 10. How is that looking for us from your point of view?

Heidi

Jody said...

NO not the 10th, I am going grocery shopping on the 11th! Maybe it can hold off until the afternoon of the 11th, then it has my blessing to snow as much as it wants!

Anonymous said...

Now on shelbystar.com, the article says we are in for warmer than normal winter and very little chance of precipt. What is with that? Also they made comment about the mountains have had 5 snows since Oct. which is normal. WELLL Eric Thomas and Channel 36, said it was rare for the mountains to get snow as early as they did this year! It has only happened a couple times in last 50 years. And all the articles I read, talk about El Nino and all that stuff, points to a colder than normal and best chances of snow for our area in a long time. Then I Sit and read this article and wonder if it was written a couple years ago, or what turnip truck they got off of! I am a big weather follower and this is the first article I have found on the internet that says "Unlikely snow and warmer than normal winter for us". What gives? If you google NC 2008-2009 winter predictions, most will come up with the same articles, colder than normal and best chance of snow for us!

Iceman said...

Yea I know it made no sense.

Anonymous said...

I lived in Asheville in 2004 and parts of Madison County( 25 minutes from Asheville ) received several little snows( 3" or so ) before Christmas. So I wouls say it isn't unusual for our mountains to see snow this early.

I believe we have a warm Christmas( mid to upper 60's ) but watch in January. I also belive December will be much warmer than November.

Anonymous said...

Skip says the overall pattern looks good for snow this year while meteorologist say this year will be warm with very little chance of snow. What gives?

Anonymous said...

Point: I am looking forward to snow

Counterpoint: this last blog SUCKED

Anonymous said...

Counterpoint: That sounds like spin.Point: Well, it's still POSSIBLE we could see something.


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