Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Florida case study

Lake County is an excellent example of the apparent trend in this election.

In 2004, George Bush won Lake County, in central Florida, with 74,382 votes.

In 2008, with 89 percent of precincts reporting, John McCain has just over 78,000 votes.

Good news for the Republicans, right?


While Kerry only pulled 48,216 in 2004 for just 39 percent of the vote, Obama already has tallied 59,864 votes which means he's only down 13 points instead of 22.

In a state won by Bush by just 5 points, I don't see anyway McCain can hold on if those types of swings are manifested throughout the state.

Bottom line: It looks like the Republicans turned out -- but not nearly at the level of Democrats, if Lake County is any indication.

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