Friday, November 21, 2008

Terrific pattern shaping up for next 2-5 weeks

If you like cold weather with a chance at an early season snow, you'll love the rest of this month and quite possibly well into December.

Both the major long term computer models -- the European and the American GFS -- show a prolonged stretch of cold weather locking into the eastern U.S.

It won't be super cold every day, but overall, the pattern is for below normal temperatures (speaking of below normal, how 'bout today's weather -- high of 43 with a stiff wind. BRRRRR! -- if you are headed to a high school game tonight, bundle up!)

Here are a few maps:

From this morning's run of the GFS, check out the extent of the cold in the long range.

Monday -- this is the warmest day I could find depicted in the next 15 days -- and it's still probably highs in the 50s to low 60s.

Wednesday -- by Thanksgiving Eve were back in the chill -- nothing like today, but highs near 50 with lows below freezing, still well below normal for this time of year.

Friday -- then it starts getting interesting. You can see a low pressure system in the lower Miss. River Valley which has dropped down from the Plains.

Saturday -- that ends up being a near miss for us, but the cold is retrenched.

From then on, it's one cold shot after another.

Two pro forecasters who I follow are both pointing toward the Dec. 1-5 range as a time for a possible winter storm for the east.

Regardless, almost all forecasters agree that the long range will feature prolonged cold in the east.

The NWS puts out an 8-14 day outlook. Here is their most recent map.
As you can see, we are smack in the middle of the below normal on temps. While it also shows below normal on precip, I'd much rather be cold, looking for precip than vice versa.

So, there's a quick update -- hope everybody has a safe weekend and Go Mountaineers, Chargers and Golden Lions!

13 comments:

Jody said...

Oh, this sounds so good, I am really ready for a good snow!

Anonymous said...

Model consensus is a good sign.

Iceman said...

The 12z GFS shows no snow now.

Anonymous said...

Skip I like your blog but why get so caught up in computer models? We all know how finicky our forecast can be. We basically live in the twilight zone when it comes to snow.

Iceman said...

LOL that is true. The GFS is still showing us getting no snow.

Anonymous said...

Just to show how "out to lunch" GFS is, on the 8th we are supposed to have highs in the 20s according to the model run I just saw. That is laughable. I'll check again next week, but I bet it will show temps in the 50s for the same day.

Matt

Anonymous said...

Skip, D'Aleo has a nice writeup on how the atmospheric conditions are shaping up for December and this winter: http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/explosive_development_in_east_coast_cyclones1/

Should we get a Big One this winter, it should not be a surprise...

Matt

Anonymous said...

This post got me so excited, but Eric Thomas has a whole different outlook. All he talks about is RAIN and in the 50's. So doesn't look like a cold pattern to me or any snow! BUMMER!

Anonymous said...

The 10-day forecast on Yahoo-weather now shows rain/snow on the 4th. Still a long way out....

Matt

Iceman said...

Hey Skip when is the next update coming?

Anonymous said...

Looking at data (so far) for November 2008....

Our average temperature (high and low) for this month, so far, has been 47F. Should the forecast tempertures play out for the remaining 4 days of the month, we will end up just under 47F for the month. You have to go back over 30 years to 1976 to find a colder November (44F average temp).

Info comes from weather underground (www.wunderground.com). Data is for Charlotte.

Matt

Anonymous said...

I nailed it: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/597/story/386656.html

Coldest Nov in 32 years, 5th coldest ever recorded.

All that globull warming, ya know....

Matt

Anonymous said...

Global warming doesn't mean squat for 1 month. Take the average highs 30 years ago and compare them with todays. We are warming. Is it global warming? Probably a little but the earth has always experienced climate changes. I will say man does play a part in their somewhere as we know how to destroy what we think can't be destroyed.