Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Our first storm to track (sort of)

Well, as we barrel toward a late Thanksgiving and then December, with each day's passing our chances of seeing some winter weather increases dramatically.

One of the first milestones of the season is the first "fantasy storm" on one of the computer models.

What is a fantasy storm?

Basically, any storm that is depicted more than 7 days out.

Well, I've got a TRUE fantasy storm to show you today -- it's not 7 days out; it's not 10 days out; it's FOURTEEN days out!

Here is the 12z run of the computer model known as the GFS (a commenter on the last thread had a unique interpretation of what those letters stand for).

As you can see, it depicts a lovely looking low pressure system tracking off the Carolinas coast.

I show this to you for one and only one reason -- it's the first of many times the GFS or any other model shows a big storm more than 7 days out. The other 100 times this happens, you won't hear a peep from me about it.

One caveat -- a met who is knowledgeabel about N.C. winter weather issued an alert that this particular time frame (first couple days of December) would see a pattern conducive to a possible lower Middle Atlanta snow storm.

The catch? He issued that warning BEFORE this run of the GFS came out.

Hmmmmmm.

Let the fun (and torture) begin!

25 comments:

Iceman said...

Hopefully this will play out. It has us getting like 1 - 3" right now. The GFS also has another system developing later that that week like Thursday but thats at the end of the loop, but it will probaly not even have it there in the 18z run.

Jody said...

Hey Skip, the link you gave me to subscribe says "404 not found"???

Anonymous said...

"(a commenter on the last thread had a unique interpretation of what those letters stand for)."

LMAO!

You a funny man Skip!

Matt

Iceman said...

Now it has us getting like 1-2". This run has the moisture farther inland and with more moisture towards us but the temperatures aren't as cold.

Jody said...

I think maybe IceMan needs a blog too, I would read it!

Anonymous said...

i will sell you the snow we aren't going to have. It cracks me up every year when I see this blog. Do you people not realize that you are wrong 99.9% of the time. Whatever floats your boat I guess. The iceman stole my name from this past winter. If you can go back on the blog that far look for yourself.

Anonymous said...

I checked te 16-day GFS last night and they still have "something" happening precipitation-wise here on the 2nd of Dec.

Of course, I'm reminded of the GFS model run I saw last winter that forecast 25F and 18" of snow...

Matt<---knows what GFS stands for :)

Skip Foster said...

Jody,
If you go to The Star's home page you'll see a blue bar across the top with topics like NEWS, OBITUARIES and FEATURES. On the right one of the topics is NEWS ALERTS. Drop down to E-mail sign up and then take it from there. Let me know if there is a problem.

Skip

Jody said...

Thanks Skip I got it now! :) Now can someone tell me how to go and view these GFS and Euro maps you all view? I enjoy this blog, and I also enjoy reading IceMan and Matts comments!

Iceman said...

Hey Jody I had a blog last year when I posted my name was ICEMAN, but I can't log in because I forgot my password and when I get the password sent to my email it gets sent to my old email which I don't remember. Anyways the 12z run of the GFS has us still getting like 1-2". It has the temperatures getting below freezing after the heavy precipitation has moved out.

Iceman said...

The 18z run of the GFS has us anywhere from a dusting to 1" of snow. It has the precipitation coming in but the temperatures are a lot warmer than the last run predicted them to be? It likes to flip-flop back and forth.

Iceman said...

Skip what do you think about this storm?

Anonymous said...

You people still think its going to snow. Drive about one hour and a half up 321 and you will find the snow you are looking for.

Anonymous said...

Jody, I get the 16-day GFS model here: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kakh#

That is for Gastonia, but that's close enough.

If I were a betting man, I'd bet we get nothing.

Matt

Jody said...

Well IceMan, I like your prediction of 1-2" of snow, I would love to see 1-2' but I am sure Shelby will not get that anytime soon. I hope you can get a new blog sometime. Thanks to Matt for the link!

Anonymous said...

Temps are now forecast to be in the 50s and 60s for Dec 2/3.

See what I mean by "GFS"?

Matt

Iceman said...

Yea the GFS has the temps to warm now. Anyways I will hopefully have a new blog soon Jody.

Iceman said...

Hey Jody, I got my blog I will make my first post soon. (just click on my name to look at it.)

Jody said...

GREAT IceMan, I added your page to my favorites. I will be looking for that first blog!

Iceman said...

The 12z run of the GFS has temps. cooler and has us getting between 3-6" of snow on December 1st.

Jody said...

OH IceMan 3-6" that would be so nice, I will have to make a big pot of soup that day, if it happens! *fingers crossed*

Iceman said...

Jody, I got my first post up.

Anonymous said...

People wake up and get a life. it ain't snowing 3-6" on Dec 1 or any other day this winter.

Anonymous said...

Hey Iceman, try put up links that work on your blog, that do not say Error 404...Page not found.

I think I'll stick with Skip.

Iceman said...

I fixed it.