Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Actual vote count -- good news for Obama

Looking at two counties in Indiana. Again go here for our interactive national map.

In Indiana, the county in the far northeast corner is Steuben. Using this USA Today stats package from the 2004 election, we see that Bush beat Kerry 66-34 in 2004. But in 2008, with 68 percent of the vote counted, McCain leads only 58-42.

Simiarly in Vigo county in the southwest, with 54 percent of the vote counted, Obama leads 56-44. What did that county do in 2004? It went for Bush 53-47.

McCain loses Indiana and we can all go to bed early.


schmuckraker said...

Major change compared to 2004.. Obama was in Indiana about 50 times, he made aserious play for this state, and it led to some big returns.. this could be a very BLUE night

Anonymous said...


Remember that Bush ended up winning the state (Indiana) by 60-39. Obama is definitely making gains, but it doesn't seem like it's the full 11% improvement over Kerry.

Pollster.com predicts a 1.2% win for McCain in that state, so a close race was expected. I think the important question is whether Obama is able to perform relative to this prediction. That would indicate that the polls are underestimating Obama.

Alternatively, if McCain seems to be heading for a win by 3-4%, this could be a very long night.

Skip Foster said...

I see your point, but regardless of what the polls said, it's hard to imagine McCain taking a 21-point state down to a couple points when his predecessor squeaked out a victory and still winning the overall election.

We shall see!

Anonymous said...

Don’t you kind of wish the MSM had properly vetted their candidate before anointing him?
Not to worry...
Obama wins popular vote with huge margins in NY, CA, IL… McCain wins electoral vote keeping almost all red states except NM and IA, but adding PA…and a district in NH...
For more on why and how there will be a landslide for both candidates go to my blog… http://scattershooting.wordpress.com

Anonymous said...

For McCain to win Indiana, the odds ratio for Obama's performance vis-a-vis Kerry's needs to stay less than 1.5. It's running at 1.82right now, which projects to a 55-45 win for Obama. It is over, folks. A very, VERY blue night. Sigh.

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