Weather update: Still in the hunt

There is a thing call climatology, which basically says: what usually happens weather-wise is what will probably happen.

Lately, what usually happens is that whenever computer models show us getting winter weather, it manages to bust.

Usually this is manifested by a few tantalizing runs of computer models followed by dashed hopes.

In that respect, my confidence that we see winter weather is higher than it has been in 2 years -- the GFS model has been relentless in its depiction of an event. Now the storm is coming into range of the shorter range NAM model and it too shows an event. The only model not on board is the European, which shows our low driving north right over our head -- not a good track for snow.

This is a classic CAD (cold-air damming) event - one key will be the strength of the high pressure to our north that feeds in the cold air which will convert precip to snow. The latest run projected a 1029 mb high, up slightly from the previous run -- anything 1030 or higher is considered a strong high pressure system which can be relied upon for a nice feed of cold, dry air.

Let's compare the GFS to the NAM and see how close they are:

Here is the 0z GFS at in the wee hours of Thursday morning.
And here is the NAM in the same time frame.
Then here is the NAM by dawn Thursday.
You can see the NAM is about 6 hours slower, but depicts the same kind of set up -- low pressure of the La./Miss. Gulf coast with precip starting to ride over the CAD.
Here's the GFS by Thursday AM. Snow is falling with more precip on the way.

So, what can go wrong?

Well, if the low tracks even slightly more north and west, it could scour out our cold wedge of air more quickly and we could transition to rain sooner. Or, the low might divert south and give us lighter precip.

Also, the models have pulled back some on the total precip -- a couple days back more than 1 inch of precip was depicted (using 10-1 ratio, that would have meant 10 inches of snow). Now, we're in more of .4-.8 area of precip.

Still, that would be plenty if even half of that fell as snow.

So, here is the new breakdown:
No precipitation to speak of: 5 percent
All rain: 40 percent
Marginal winter event (dusting of snow/slight ice coating) 25 percent
Minor winter event (1-2 inches of snow/minor ice coating) 18 percent
Moderate winter event (3-5 inches of snow/moderate icing) 10 percent
Major winter event (6 or inches of snow/major icing) 2 percent

I actually dropped the "major" category, but the other "snow" categories go up. We're really getting in a window now where the changes in the modeling should be more subtle, so I feel pretty safe saying there will be SOME sort of system coming out of the Gulf late week.

Stay tuned!

Weather update: The big one or big rain?

Well, the beginning of the new pattern we talked about earlier this week is just a few days away and it might kick off with a bang.

Most model runs show a major Gulf of Mexico low forming early next week and moving northeast by midweek.

Let's look at how the latest (18z) run of the GFS depicts this storm:

Here is the wee hours Thursday morning. This map depicts surface temps (usually, the maps I show you refer to upper air temps. As you can see, the 32 line is to our south as precip moves in. Notice the high pressure to our north east -- recently these areas of high pressure have been oriented in a west/east manner. This one is more north-south which is better for cold-air damming to set up. To wit, you can see the little wind barb (if you zoom in) over the Charlotte region is showing a north/northeast wind.

Now for Thursday after dawn. Still at or below freezing at the surface (and in upper levels) as a 2-4 inches of snow falls.

Here's early Thursday afternoon. This is the upper air map which shows us JUST above freezing -- also borderline at the surface. BUT, you can see the heavy precip that is falling. If this were all snow, it would be an additional 3-6 inches, maybe more. Or it could be a little more snow, then some freezing rain. Or it could change to all rain.

IF it were all snow ... IF ... we'd be talking about 6-10 inches. BIG IF!

By Thursday night, the storm has pulled away.

Couple of things -- before this storm moves in, it will encounter very dry air, which will lead to what is called evaporational cooling. Basically, this means that as precip falls through dry air, the air is cooled. The "wet bulb" temperature is essentially the temperature to which the atmosphere will fall if saturated. So, if you had a temperature of 40F but because the air was so dry, the dewpoint was 10F. The wet bulb would be around 30F -- that means that the temperature would drop 10F once it started precipitating. Here is a web bulb calculator.

Computer models tend to underplay two things -- CAD (cold-air damming) and evaporational cooling. So, this is one time the models may trend MORE in our favor on temps.

And that is the ingredient which will be key here -- there is strong model agreement that there will be a significant low pressure system -- the question on temps will be the close call. The last few runs of the GFS have set up a rain-snow line somewhere along I-85.

Bottom line: This is BY FAR the best looking system since 2006 or earlier. Plus, there continue to be more chances downstream in the 12-day range and beyond.

Here's a breakdown on the Thursday event by percentages:

No precipation to speak of: 10 percent
All rain: 50 percent
Marginal winter event (dusting of snow/slight ice coating) 18 percent
Minor winter event (1-2 inches of snow/minor ice coating) 12 percent
Moderate winter event (3-5 inches of snow/moderate icing) 7 percent
Major winter event (6 or inches of snow/major icing) 3 percent

So, that's a 22 out of 100 chance of accumulating snow, which is pretty darned high for 5 days out.

Of course 78 percent chance of nothing or close to nothing.

Still, half (or more) of the fun is in the tracking!

Stay tuned!

All hail the pattern change

Very good news for winter weather lovers in the medium and long range -- all signs point to a major pattern change with sustained cold and a much higher chance of storms.

Almost all models point to a major cold outbreak across most of the central and eastern U.S. starting late next week into next weekend.

It all gets started in the Wed. night/early Thursday timeframe. As cold air begins to seep southward from the arctic regions, low pressure forms in the Gulf of Mexico. Will cold air arrive in time to make this a winter event? Way too soon to tell. Here is the storm depicted on the just-finished 12z GFS run.

More cold is ushered in the wake of this system, then another low tries to crank up in the Gulf. By the following week, cold is entrenched over the U.S.

One reason is the emergence of what pro mets call "blocking" over the Greenland area. This blocking "locks in" a cold pattern. If you've noticed, we've had what is called a "progressive" pattern thus far this winter -- it gets cold and warm, but nothing lasts very long.

With blocking, which can be measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation, cold air is continuously funneled south for weeks at a time, meaning one part of the N.C. snow equation is basically set -- then, all we need is lower pressure for a nice snow.

Check out this long-range map from the 6z GFS run. It's plenty cold here for snow, but notice the bitter cold on our doorstep -- this is all "fresh" cold, not the old stale airmasses out of which we have been hoping to squeeze a snowstorm.

Bottom line: GREAT pattern emerging -- first chance at a payoff is Wed. night/Thursday morning, with good shots every few days thereafter for the next couple of weeks.

BOLD PREDICTION: We will see accumulating snows in Cleveland County before the end of January!

Thursday weather update: So close, but yet .....

Well, there just isn't enough cold air to give us snow, it would appear, from this system.

But, if you check out this map, you'll see how close we are.

JUST as it gets cold enough for snow, the precip is moving out.

Might be a nice hit for the mountains.

Good news -- there are indications that we get into a much better overall pattern by late January and into February.

The overall pattern right now stinks so we have to have perfect timing to get snow.

If anything changes, I'll let you know.

Wed. noon weather update: Ehhhhhh.....

I hoped to offer better than 1 in 10 odds of snow Sunday, but I can't. In fact, I'm downgrading to 1 in 12. Still, we're hardly out of the running for some winter weather.

Here's the deal:

The latest runs of the GFS have the storm missing us to the south and east. Instead of low pressure hugging the Gulf Coast, then crossing the Fla. panhandle into South Ga. and off the S.C./Ga. coast, the low forms more south, crosses the Fla. peninsula and then offshore.

Here are a series of maps from the 12z run (for a definition of 12z see comments from my last post).

Late Saturday night Note the low pressure in the central gulf
Wee hours Sun. AM
Sunday morning Low over Fla. peninsula
Sunday afternoon Low moving offshore
Late Sunday night Low missing us to the east

You'll notice that the GFS is good on temperatures.

Now the good news (with some bad news mixed in).

The Euro (maps from the Euro are crude and not easy to link to) has a much better track for the low, but temps are not as good -- it would not get cold enough for snow until the system is moving away. Also, the Euro does not intensify the low until it is almost past us to the northeast, which means less precip.

So, there are ingredients in place and it's too soon to bail out, but we're definitely still talking about a low chance (although lately a low chance is better than NO chance).

Also, as a friendly reminder, I did not say it was going to snow, only that we had a system to track.

More later today or tonight.

Tuesday afternoon update: Hopes are high

The 12Z GFS run now has the storm suppressed to our south and east which, for me, is GREAT news, because the models have been terribly biased in the OPPOSITE direction all season -- that is, storms that looked good for us trended north and west as the event drew near.

These system never seem to get colder. Remember the big February snow we had a couple years back -- about 5 days out, models showed us getting zip, but eventually they trended north and we hit the jackpot.

More good news: The Euro is back on board, showing a nice little snow and a Miller A system. Interesting, we only see a minor event because the Euro doesn't really bomb out the low until it gets directly to our east -- by then the precip is starting to shut down. But I'd take 1-2 inches over a cold rain any day.

Finally the National Weather Service has taken notice -- here the current forecast for Cleveland County:

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT..MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.

So, it's fun to at least have something to track. Usually, the magic window is about 78 hours -- if you can get a storm still showing up on model at that time frame (so, in this case, Thursday morning), you've got a good shot at seeing snow.

Not changing my percentages now, but might bump them up tonight or tomorrow if model trends hold.

Sunday snow? Our best shot this winter

Had a family illness to tend to or I would have given more advance notice of our best shot at snow since 2005 (remember, 2006 was a rare, big, fat goose egg for the white stuff.)

This system is a classic looking "Miller A" storm -- which basically means it is a low pressure system which develops in the Gulf of Mexico and tracks across the Gulf coast into the southwest Atlantic, somewhere of the Ga/S.C. coasts. "Miller A" is named after meteorologist James Miller.

This is how we USED to get most of our storms and is a favorable track for snow.

Here is the latest run of the GFS:

In the wee hours of Sunday morning. Note the low forming in the north central gulf
Sunday at church time. Precip spreading our way. High pressure building in from the north.
Sunday afternoon. Low still getting its act together in Gulf as precip breaks out.
Wee hours Monday morning. Low in perfect spot off S.C. coast, temps dropping, snow falling.
Monday late morning. Low heading up coast, snow still falling

The recent (6z) GFS was the warmest of recent runs. For example, the previous (0z) run showed cold air moving in more quickly.

Compare this to the "Sunday at church time" 6z run above.

The European model lost the storm yesterday, but got it back overnight. Temps are still an issue.

Overall, there are some things going for this system we haven't had in a while -- mainly, that it's "Miller A."

What's NOT going for it is that the overall pattern is still not great for winter weather here -- we have to have great timing between features to get a snow rather than simply waiting for a good pattern to crank out a storm.

I have a feeling temperatures are going to be the main problem. The high pressure to our north during this storm will have to be at least as strong or maybe even stronger than what is being modeled for the snow to come through.

Right now, I'd give us a 2 out of 10 shot of measureable snow with 1 out of 10 of a major event (4 inches or more).

New models runs late this morning and early this afternoon, so watch for updates.

An unbelievable forecast

I promise, I'm not making this up. This is the forecast for an area near Reno, Nev. for today.

To save you the math, that's a range of 115 to 131 inches of snow -- possibly almost 11 FEET!!!!

I think they'd probably call off school in Cleveland County for a year if that happened!

Here's a web cam from Mammoth Lake.

And here is an incredible time lapse video of the snow piling up on a deck.

January weather outlook

BRRRRRRRRR!

Just in case you forgot what cold weather feels like, the next couple of days will be a cold slap in the face.

But, incredibly, not only will the cold be short-lived, but we will actually transition by next week to a very warm pattern, with temperatures by mid-week reaching the 60s and maybe even near or above 70 degrees!

Some medium range models continue the roller-coaster ride by mid-month, with a colder, stormier pattern taking hold. While highly unreliable during this time frame, the GFS model has persistently shown some sort of east coast storm system in the January 14-18 time frame.

So winter is here, winter will leave, but winter will come again!

Top 10 Carols: No. 1

No. 1: Once in Royal David's City.

This has always been one of my favorites, but it soared to the top of the charts last Christmas, when my 12-year-old daughter was asked to open both Christmas Eve services at our church by singing the first two verses of this carol a capella at the back of the church.

Talk about goosebumps!

She'll be reprising that contribution to the service again this year -- actually in about 90 minutes.

As the time for the star of Bethlehem draws nigh, I'd like to wish you all a joyous Christmas season.

Weather update: Not looking good

It's ALMOST time to write off Christmas snow in these parts.

The saying in weather is "the trend is your friend" -- that is, follow the trend to find out what is going to happen.

Well, the trend is for the Christmas storm to be sheared out -- to essentially have all its energy sucked up by the system behind it.

By the time THAT system is ready to roll through, our cold air is long gone -- which means we see rain the couple days after Christmas.

Is there time for this to change -- yes, but it's unlikely.

Sorry!

Chance of White Christmas: 1 in 200 (down from 1 in 40)
Reasoning: No model support for a storm, despite a favorable setup

Afternoon weather update: It's a puzzle

First, this would be a good time to remind you that I don't know what the heck I'm talking about. By that I mean, I have no meteorological training, other than what I've picked up. What I can do for you, though, is aggregate the opinions of the many real mets who frequent message boards and forum across the Internet and also illustrate through maps available on public web sites what is going on.

Having said that, there is much interest in the met community about this potential system for a couple of reasons:

1) It's a possible Christmas snow which is exciting to most everybody
2) There is higher than normal uncertainty with how the models are depicting the current pattern.

Right now the best way to describe the propsect of a Christmas snow is that there are pieces to the puzzle laying on a table -- the question is, will they get put together?

Right now, all of the pieces are shown in all of the models -- but none of them have the puzzle complete --- the Euro develops the storm too late, offshore, but has cold air in place. The UK model is better on precip but iffy on temps. And the GFS, well, it's just all over the place -- no storm at all one run, then too warm, then too suppressed.

There is an excellent chance we get a big fat nothing from this system or a cold rain, or a passing flurry.

But for now, the best I can tell you is this: We can't rule out a White Christmas. And to be able to say that on Dec. 20 is reason for optimism.

Still ...
Chances of White Christmas: 1 in 40 (down from 1 in 30)
Reasoning: Continued model uncertainty and the failure of any one model to latch on to a strong, snowy solution.

Quick Thursday AM update: Anything goes

We are now faced with an array of model solutions regarding a potential Christmas snow, which is neither unexpected or, necessarily bad. It would be unprecedented for models to pick up on an event like this 7 days out and show the same solution over and over until the storm hit.

Let's break it down.

The overnight Euro, delays the development of the storm until it has almost already passed us to the south and east. Then it pops a strong low off the coast, but probably too late for us to get much.

Last night's GFS showed a nice swath of precip -- around .75 inches liquid equivalent -- over our are, but weakened the high pressure to our north just enough to give us only a cold rain.

Then, this morning's GFS weakened the storm itself, shearing it out and giving us only flurries, drizzle or maybe a dusting of snow.

The main point, though, is that the players are in place for an event -- high pressure to our north and some sort of southern disturbance. Will everything be timed just right for snow? If I knew that, I'd be making a lot more money than I am right now.

But as long as those players are on the field, there is still a chance for a ... well, touchdown!

Remember, the potential event is still 5 full days away, so a LOT can happen with the models in that span.

I'll update again early this afternoon after the noon model runs are complete.

Chances of Christmas snow: 1 in 30 (flat from 1 in 30 yesterday afternoon)
Reasoning: General model agreement on some sort of even with basic pieces in place for a winter storm.

Afternoon weather update: Model madness

The two models that showed a snowstorm for Christmas Day are now world's apart from each other.

In one corner, the European model -- most trusted in the medium range (3-7 days). It backed up last nights run with another appealing solution today -- a major snow storm for the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic -- particularly eastern portions of the state, where a major snowfall is projected.

We would still get in on the act with 2-6 inches of snow, according to this run.

But before you dust off the sleds, the noon run of the GFS model has a very different, if not somewhat bizarre solution. Instead of tracking low pressure along the Gulf Coast and across southern Ga. off the S.C. coast, it takes the low in an unusual NNE direction from lower Mississippi up into Kentucky!

Obviously, this is no good for snow - we stay well on the warm side of the low. While it might bring some welcomed rain, White Christmas would have wait.

By the way, anybody know when the last measureable snowfall fell in Charlotte (more than a trace?).

60 years ago!

At the end of each post I will update my odds of the storm happening. As we get closer, if an event is more imminent, I will make those odds more detailed. And don't forget, for an e-mail alert on these columns, write to erikregans@shelbystar.com

Odds of measureable snowfall: 1 in 30 (down from 1 in 25)
Reasoning: Now only one model showing the storm

Two models show white Christmas!

Brace yourselves!

Abruptly, two runs of two different models popped up with a Christmas Day snowstorm for the Carolinas.

Here is a sequence of maps from the early morning run of the GFS model, the main model used by American forecasters:

Wee hours Christmas morning
Dawn Christmas morning
Early Christmas afternoon
Christmas night

That's about 1 inch of liquid precip, which would equate to 10 inches of snow.

As you can see, temps are marginal, but would be mostly or all snow to the N.C./S.C. line.

The European model -- which most consider the best medium range model -- shows a slightly later developing system that doesn't really become potent until it gets to our east -- bringing us much less precip, but with colder temps -- still, some sort of wintry precip. This isn't a bad thing, necessarily, because the model trends this year have been to bring systems north and west as the event draws nearer.

Caveats:
1) This is not in a model "sweet spot" -- 7 days out is still a LONG way meteorologically and MUCH could change (in fact, one could argue that the last thing you want 7 days out is to see a storm for your area)
2) The models have not been performing well in the medium range in the last few weeks. The big storm for the interior northeast last week was originally projected to pass hundreds of miles south and east of where it eventually tracked
3) It never snows on Christmas.

I would give this a 1 in 25 chance of verifying, but that's better than 0 out of 25, right? It will be fun to track over the coming days.

Now, a couple of things -- if you would like to receive e-mail alerts ON JUST WINTER WEATHER, I will be offering that for free. So, you'll receive an e-mail whenever I make a signficant update to my blog that is weather related. If you would like this, please e-mail our Webmaster Erik Regans at erikregans@shelbystar.com. Put WEATHER UPDATES in the extent line.

Stay tuned!

Friday winter weather threat?

The chances for a White Christmas are slim and none (again) this year, but in the shorter term, one of the short range models has a very near miss for us that bears watching.

Check out these two model maps from the NAM model run of this afternoon:

For the wee hours Friday morning.
For around dawn Friday morning.
For Friday afternoon.

As you can see the precip just brushes our area and the air is JUST cold enough to support some sort of light winter mix of some kind.

If those two trended closer together, we could see a minor winter event.

There isn't much other model support for this and I'd say the odds are very low, but it's at least worth tracking.

Top 10 Carols: No. 2

No. 2: Silent Night

The top 2 on the list are both personal for me.

My strongest memory from childhood when it comes to the Christmas Eve service is the lights being doused after communion and the congregation singing silent night by candlelight.

It still gives me chills to think about it.

The current-day tune was written by Franz Gruber with words by Josef Morh, a German priest. Even in America, the German version "Stille Nacht" is sung.

The song was sung simultaneously in English and German by troops during the Christmas truce of 1914, as it was one of the few carols that soldiers on both sides of the front line knew.

Here is version of the song in German as sung by a boys choir.

Anybody want to guess what No. 1 is? You might be surprised!

The list so far:
No. 2: Silent Night
No. 3: O Come all ye Faithful
No. 4: Hark, the Herald Angels Sing
No. 5: Angels we have heard on high
No. 6: Some children see him
No. 7: O come o come emmanuel
No. 8: In the bleak midwinter
No. 9: Lo, how a rose e'er blooming
No. 10: Go tell it on the mountain

Top 10 Carols: No. 3

No. 3: O Come all ye Faithful

This famous hymn is also known by its Latin name "Adeste Fideles." As is the case with many carols, the origin is unclear. The first time the current lyrics and hymn are known to have been paired together is the middle 18th century.

Some believe the hymn has Portuguese origins, although that is unclear.

Whatever the case, this is often the processional or recessional hymn at many Christmas Eve services.

Here's a great version by American Idol runner up Katherine McPhee.

Only 2 to go! Any guesses????

No. 3: O Come all ye Faithful
No. 4: Hark, the Herald Angels Sing
No. 5: Angels we have heard on high
No. 6: Some children see him
No. 7: O come o come emmanuel
No. 8: In the bleak midwinter
No. 9: Lo, how a rose e'er blooming
No. 10: Go tell it on the mountain

Top 10 Carols: No. 4

No. 4: Hark, the Herald Angels Sing

Now we're getting to the big boys -- the hymns that if they aren't listed in the Christmas Eve church bulletin, you feel like you were cheated.

Hark the herald angels sing was written by John Wesley's brother Charles, according to Wikipedia.

I was interested to learn that Wesley at one point envisioned the lyrics to be sung to the tune of the Easter hymn "Christ the Lord is risen today" If that's the same as the modern hymn "Jesus Christ is Risen Today," then I tried to match the lyrics of "Hark" to that tune and it works!

The tune most often used today was derived from a Mendelssohn arrangement in the 19th century.

I was also interested to find out that "Hark" is the recessional hymn for the annual Service of Nine Lessons and Carols in King's College Chapel, Cambridge.

I graduated from the University of the South in Sewanee, an Episcopal school which holds a very close version of Lessons and Carols every December.

The list so far:
No. 4: Hark, the Herald Angels Sing
No. 5: Angels we have heard on high
No. 6: Some children see him
No. 7: O come o come emmanuel
No. 8: In the bleak midwinter
No. 9: Lo, how a rose e'er blooming
No. 10: Go tell it on the mountain

Top 10 Carols: No. 5 (also, weather update)

First, on the weather, the weekend storm will still be big for folks in the northeast, but there is a double whammy of bad news for us -- first, no snow. Second, the chances of a good soaking rain are also lower -- we may get caught in a "dry slot" and could see just some light rain, rather than the heavy event we need. Also, a hint of some storminess in about 10-12 days (!!!!), but too soon to tell on that.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled countdown.

No. 5: Angels we have heard on high

Also, simply known as "Gloria," the words to this song are based on a French carol, Les Anges dans nos Campagnes (literally, The Angels in our Countryside).

Obviously, the carol is known for the melodic, drawn out "Gloria," chorus.

For me, this is one of the biggies often sung on Christmas Eve.

Here is a version by Josh Groban, who my co-worker Donna Roddy says is the bomb.

The list so far:
No. 5: Angels we have heard on high
No. 6: Some children see him
No. 7: O come o come emmanuel
No. 8: In the bleak midwinter
No. 9: Lo, how a rose e'er blooming
No. 10: Go tell it on the mountain

Top 10 Carols: No. 6

No. 6: Some children see him

This may be the most obscure song on the list. I first heard it on James Taylor's Christmas album released in the last couple of years.

It is a carol about the vision of Jesus by different races of children.

It ends with this stanza:

The children in each different place
will see the baby Jesus' face
like theirs, but bright with heavenly grace,
and filled with holy light.
O lay aside each earthly thing
and with thy heart as offering,
come worship now the infant King.'
Tis love that's born tonight!

Upon further research, however, I came upon a fascinating story.

The song was written by Alfred Burt, part of a family of Episcopal priests. The Burts began a tradition of sending out Christmas Cards with originally composed carols included. Here is the collection ("Some children see him" is from 1951).

Here is a You Tube version of the song by Kenny Loggins.

The list so far:

No. 6: Some children see him
No. 7: O come o come emmanuel
No. 8: In the bleak midwinter
No. 9: Lo, how a rose e'er blooming
No. 10: Go tell it on the mountain

Weekend storm update

Well, for one shining moment, this weekend looked like "the big one." Check out yesterday afternoon's run of the GFS.

That's a big ice to snow event -- almost two inches of liquid -- if all snow, it would be measured in feet, not inches

But alas, that was simply the start of a strong trend, moving the system north with every model run -- now, the GFS and the European model show us with all rain.

Is there time for a trend back to the south? Yes, but it usually doesn't work that way -- our storms almost always trend north to get us, not south.

Still, I'll keep an eye on it.

Top 10 Carols: No. 7

No. 7: O come, O come Emmanuel

Technically, this is an advent hymn, but we seem to skip over Advent for Christmas these days anyway, so what the heck.

According to Wikipedia, it is unclear from what period this hymn and its lyrics originate - perhaps as far back as the 8th century.

I was intrigued by this passage on Wikipedia:

"Performance variations exist today over the rhythm of the music. Many performances pause on the last syllable of "Emmanuel", in both the verse and the chorus, however often performances omit these pauses to give a greater sense of understanding to the chorus "Rejoice, rejoice, Emmanuel shall come to thee O Israel". If a pause is included, the meaning is lost as an audible comma is heard between "Emmanuel" and "shall come to thee..."."

I've always noticed this about the song -- I prefer to the pause NOT to be used in the chorus but I DO like it used in the verses.

Couldn't find much on-line. Here is a You Tube version by Whitney Houston that's not bad -- although the photographic slide show is superfluous.

The list so far:

No. 10: Go tell it on the mountain
No. 9: Lo, how a rose e'er blooming
No. 8: In the bleak midwinter
No. 7: O come, O come Emmanuel

First legit snow threat

As some of you may know, I started a paid e-mail column on winter weather a couple years back.

It hasn't snowed since.

So, instead of taking people's money for nothing, I'm going to provide that service for free on this blog until there is evidence it will snow again here ... ever.

My column generally gives a heads up to potential winter weather events and summarizes the views of meteorologists (I'm certainly not one) who write an analyze on various web sites.

As you might have read from an earlier column, the OVERALL patterns this year is very hostile to snow. But, just like we can NOT see snow from a great pattern, we can also get a good snow even from a lousy pattern, if everything comes together.

The last couple runs of a computer model called the GFS does just that.

This is the model's forecast map for next Saturday afternoon. And here is the map for Sunday evening. If it verified, that's a 1-3 inch snow. And here is the European model from a similar time frame -- warmer, but wetter.

Now, 7 days off is forever and this will change a million times, but at least it's something to track, which is more than we've had thus far this season.

Stay tuned!

Top 10 Carols: No. 8

No. 8 is: "In the bleak midwinter."

Ironically, a friend of mine e-mail me yesterday that he was following the countdown and offered that James Taylor's version of "In the bleak midwinter" was particularly good. I agree and have it on I-tunes.

The last verse of the song is particularly moving:
What can I give Him, poor as I am?
If I were a shepherd, I would bring a lamb;
If I were a Wise Man, I would do my part;
Yet what I can I give Him: give my heart.

I found this version of the song on You Tube, sung by the Lichefield Cathedral Choir.

So far:
No. 10: Go tell it on the mountain
No. 9: Lo, how a rose e'er blooming
No. 8: In the bleak midwinter

Top 10 Carols: No. 9

Coming in at No. 9, is the hauntingly beautiful "Lo how a rose e'er blooming"

If you aren't familiar with it, here is a version (press "play") by low brass instruments.

Here are the lyrics:
Lo, how a Rose e'er blooming from tender stem hath sprung,
Of Jesse's lineage coming, as saints of old have sung.
It came, a flow'ret bright, amid the cold of winter,when half-spent was the night.

Isaiah t'was foretold it, the Rose I have in mind.
With Mary we behold it, the virgin mother kind.
To show God's love aright, she bore to us a Savior,when half-spent was the night.

Flower, whose fragrance tender with sweetness fills the air,
dispel in glorious splendor the darkness everywhere.
True man, yet very God, from sin and death he saves us,and lightens every load.

It's certainly not as cheery a tune as some standbys, but truly a mesmerizing piece of music.

So far:
No. 10: Go tell it on the mountain
No. 9: Lo how a rose e'er blooming
No. 8: Friday

Skip's Top 10 Christmas carols -- today, No. 10

For the next 10 days, I will regale you with my top 10 Christmas carols. I'm trying to hold this list to actual carols (so, the Grinch theme and Grandma got runover by a Raindeer will not be on the list).

You may be surprised by a couple of these and I'm sure everybody will have a different order.

As the series goes on, feel free to comment on carols you do or don't like.


No. 10: "Go tell it on the mountain"

I like this carol mainly because it's uplifting and asks us to participate in sharing the Nativity rather than simply experiencing it ourselves.

According to Wikipedia, this was orginally an African-American spiritual.

Winter outlook

In a word: Yuck!

If you don't like snow, then the winter of 2007-08 is shaping up to be right up your alley.

We are in what is being called a "moderate" La Nina event. La Nina and El Nino refer to ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Moderate to strong La Ninas are notoriously bad for winter weather in the east, especially the southeast.

The general pattern for us during this types of winters is warm and dry. Plus, the current drought tends to enhance that tendancy. A stubborn ridge of high pressure over the southeast or the southeastern Atlantic tends to send storms through the middle of the country rather than up the east coast.

This means any cold air we see is only a glancing blow.

Anyway, modeling looks benign through mid- to late-December.

Only ray of hope: There is some recent data that shows the La Nina might be weakening. Weak La Ninas teleconnect much better to a colder, stormier winter for us, so it's something to keep an eye on.

So, overall, it won't be mild every day, but cold air intrusions should be limited in severity and duration.

While even in the worst pattern we can still see things come together for snow, it looks like our best chances will be later in the season.

Not a pretty picture for snow lovers, but it's the cold (?) hard truth!

Rich richer? Poor poorer?

How many times have you heard a Democratic candidate for president claim the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer?

It's just not true, as this column by Thomas Sowell explains.

Yet, when the national media covers these debates and speeches and such, these untruths will go unchallenged and unquestioned.

Parents of UNC students -- beware

This article in this month's Carolina Journal paints a scary picture of the kind of indoctrination being practice by far too many college professors.

Also, read how this conservative UNC student found her grades suddenly improved when she started espousing anti-conservative rhetoric.

It's a shame that the open-mindedness and inclusiveness that used to be a halmark of liberalism is being replaced by a type of brainwashing and intolerance that is really just plan scary.

From bogus "hate" speech codes (which are really just designed to suppress other-than-far-left-wing thought) to professors (see link further down in this blog) who essentially espouse that all white men are racist, college campuses have become, astonishingly, havens for the worst kind of intolerance in America.

The far left -- the new far right.

John "Give me a break!" Stossel on "global warming"

Great column by John Stossel of ABC's 20/20 on climate change.

Key points:
1) Simply saying the "debate is over" on the causes and extent of global warming doesn't make it so
2) Just because the earth is warming doesn't mean humans caused it or that it is even a bad thing
3) There is zero reason to believe the government is capable of doing anything to help this situation
4) Humans ability to REVERSE global warming is in serious doubt.

Have a kid in college?

Want him or her to grow up something other than a Marxist?

Disagree that all white males are racist?

Then read this.

Star Car the talk of the trades

The Star Car is receiving plenty of attention from newspaper/Web site trade publications.

Here are some links:

Editor and Publisher
IFRA Newsplex blog
The "Indiepub" blog
Geekedabout.com, a technology blog
Blogue MediaBiz, a French Web site (hope they're not trashing us and I just don't know the language)

Shelby attorney quoted story on Irish Business web site

I received a Google News alert e-mail that referred to an Irish business Web site.

Low and behold it's Shelby attorney O. Max Gardner III being quoted in the story.

Small world, getting smaller.

Environmentalist propaganda (redundancy?) on Duke Power plant

An e-mail is making its way around the county regarding Duke Power's new coal-fired power plant which is working its way through the regulatory process.

One of the cruxes of the e-mail is that the new plant will increase mercury emissions which is going to adversely impact the health of women and babies. In fact, the name of the slide show is:
"The Cliffside Coal-Fired Power Plant Expansion Proposed by Duke Energy Will Have a Detrimental Effect on the Environment and Public Health of North Carolina"

There is one problem with the title when it comes to public health. Nobody knows if it's true.

Here is a summary of the sequence of assertions made in the power point -- see if you can find what's missing.

1) Coal plants burn mercury -- 40 percent of U.S. mercury emissions come from these facilities.
2) Mercury ends up in water
3) Fish, living the water, ingest the mercury
4) Some N.C. fish have mercury
5) People eat fish
6) High levels of mercury in fetuses and children can be harmful
7) Mercury poisoning in adults can cause major health problems
8) An estimated 8 percent of child-bearing-age women in the U.S. have unsafe levels of mercury, according to an EPA researcher.
9) The amount of mercury emitted by the new plant will result in an increase of total mercury emissions.


Did you find what's missing?

Maybe asking these three questions of the environmentalists would help:
1) Please point to one documented case -- not an estimate, projection or guess, a documented case -- in North Carolina where a child suffered health problems because of mercury poisoning from a coal-fired power plant.
2) Please point to the documented study that shows that the mercury found in area fish or water can be directly tied to emissions from coal-fired power plants.
3) Isn't it true that the "unsafe" level of mercury concentration that 8 percent of women who are childbearing age allegedly carry is actually 10 times lower than the minimum safe levels mentioned in the exact same EPA study?

What missing is this -- there is no direct evidence that mercury from power plants adversely affects anybody's health. None. Zip. Zero.

Yes, coal plants emit mercury. Yes, mercury CAN be bad for you (but in much larger quantities than anyone is every likely to consume).

No, we don't know where the mercury comes from that fish (and then humans) ingest.

Remember, 60 percent of mercury comes emissions in the U.S. come from other sources. From the state's health department web site: "Mercury is also released into the air, water and land when fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) are burned; when municipal solid waste or medical waste is incinerated; during forest fires; and during some manufacturing processes."

AND, mercury also exists naturally: "Mercury is a metal that occurs naturally at low levels in rock, soil and water throughout North Carolina."

Even if you believe, however, that the mercury comes from these plants, the science on what levels of mercury is actually harmful is flimsy.

This article from the Cato Institute addresses that point and puts in perspective these types of scare tactics. Please take the time to read it.

Here's the cold hard reality -- there are a lot of good, well-intentioned people who care deeply about clean air and clean water and healthy children.

Then there are the fringe, radical environmentalists who are for those things that we are all for, but who are truly fueled by a hatred for capitalism, industry and progress. They will distort and contrive and deceive and, mostly, scare people into opposing things that really bring no danger at all and all sorts of benefit (do you realize how many people will be employed in building this facility and what it will do to our county's tax base when it is finished -- do environmentalists even think about the number of people who will be able afford, say, better pre-natal care for their children, providing infinitely more benefits than any threat the plant poses from mercury, because of this plant).

I also love how these e-mail are sent out the day of (in this case) or the day before some deadline. Much like Al Gore and "global warming" they don't want to have a debate, they simply want to scare people into acting before they've thought through the issue.

Gore likes to intimidate those who would dare disagree with his apocalyptic view of global warming by saying: "The issue is settled."

He doesn't scare me. And neither does this power plant.

Greatest play in college football history

You think "The Play" by Cal was great?

You think Boise St. over Oklahoma last year was great?

Doug Flutie vs. Miami?

Georgia's Lindsey Scott vs. Florida? ("Run Linsdey!")

LSU's Bluegrass Miracle?

They are ALL great, but not the greatest.

Here it is -- Trinity vs. Milsaps.

Unbelievable!!!!!!!!!!

Check out this radar (time sensitive, 1:45 p.m.)

Here is the link to a radar scroll.

Notice the "training" of precip right up into Cleveland County. We might hit the jackpot from this rain system.

Major rains forecast through weekend

This is a precipitation forecast map for the period Tuesday morning until Sunday morning. You can also find this map here at the National Weather Service's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Yes, it's true, NWS forecasters say we will receive between 3 and 6 inches of rain during the next five days. Sounds great, but I'll believe it when I see it!!!

Know anybody who is "work hot?"

Check out this glossary of new teen slang terms from the Boston Globe.

My favorites:

Flossin': Showing off.
Check your vitals: To do a sweep of e-mail and other essential websites.
Money: cabbage, chalupas, cheddar, Gouda, paper, Kraft singles (for dollar bills).
Work hot: A person who may or may not be attractive, but is the best-looking person at your workplace.

Mom's overture

Had this You Tube clip e-mailed to me.

The lyrics ring pretty true ......

Think universal health care is a good thing?

You won't if you do any research. This column by 20/20's John Stossel shines a light on the "great" systems in Canada and England that folks like Michael Moore, John Edwards and Hillary Clinton want to bring to America.

Why anybody would think the government could do a better job with health care than the private sector is beyond me.

True drought relief?

If you buy this map from the National Weather Service, Friday could be a gloriously wet, rainy day. The remnants of surprise, quick-developing Hurricane Humberto is to "blame." Cross your fingers!

Awesome view

This is a late afternoon satellite picture of Dean.

Should be Category 4 soon -- still headed for Yucatan and/or Texas.

Very powerful -- somebody's going to get hurt .... bad.

Dean getting his act together

Hurricane Dean is strengthening quickly.

If you have ANY interests in the Caribbean over the next few days OR in Cancun/Yucatan peninsula of Mexico into next week OR northern Mexico/Southern Texas and the entire western Gulf Coast late next week.

Here are the latest computer models -- of note is the GFDL track (in blue), which goes "through the goalpoast" into the Gulf of Mexico.

Also of note, most models show that Dean will become an extremely powerful hurricane. Some show it itensifying such that the surface pressure drops below 900 mb, which would be Katrina-esque.

There is nothing other than land to weaken this storm -- upper level conditions are perfect for strengthening and it is moving through bath-water warm seas so whereever first landfall is .......

Nifong's final disgrace: The dog ate my law license.

This is really too bad to be true.

Check it out.

Dean alert!

Hurricane forecasters are loathe to predict where storms may go beyond 3-5 days, but as a weather fanatic, I can tell you that there is strong model consensus that Tropical Storm Dean will plow through our just north of the Caribbean and either strike the Southeast Coast or enter the Gulf Of Mexico. Here is the 12z run of the GFS model which shows Dean emerging into the Gulf by Tuesday of next week. Other models shows the storm hitting Florida, then re-emerging into the Gulf. The southernmost projections shows the storm perhaps grazing the Yucatan and then striking Texas.

Here is an array of model runs, but only out to 5 days.

Bottom line: If you have travel plans in the Caribbean this weekend, you should watch Dean like a hawk.

And if you have travel plans anywhere on the east coast or Gulf coast the following week into the weekend of Aug. 24, you should keep a wary eye on the tropics.

The intelligentsia exposed

In some of my rantings against the global warming propaganda machine, I've argued that the hysteria generated on this topic is a product of the hard-left academia-types who will say or do anything to further their agenda of undermining capitalism and the free market system.

Left-wingers (and others) often scoff at this, saying "how much power do a bunch of professors really have?" and "there are tons of conservatives on college campuses."

This study absolutely should silence those scoffers.

As it turns out, college professors and others in the education field have contributed more money to federal politics than the oil industry and drugmakers, with a nearly unanimous goal of putting a Democrat in the White House.

These professors and such wield tremendous power and are unabashedly using to to advance a far-left agenda.

As a colleague of mine asked: You have to wonder while reading this why the heck schools/nonprofit institutions, some of which get state tax dollars, are donating to any political candidate.

Driving while intexticated

This new type of "DWI" is claiming lives across the country. Here is a story about a fatal crash in New York that may have been a result of this new phenomenon -- young people trying to read and answer text messages as they drive.

Here is a story a Minneapolis TV station did on this subject.

If you are the parent of a text-messaging teen (or if are one yourself), you should address this TODAY.

Can't make Tony and Eva's wedding?

Here is the next best thing ...... courtesy of a San Antonio newspaper.

Yuck!

This is one of those videos that will probably be viewed a gazillion times -- a news report on a very unique way to serve fish.

NO THANKS!

Fascinating opinion

This opinion from the N.C. Court of Appeals is interesting in two respects. First, because it provides new protection for the media when it comes to court-imposed gag orders.

But the really juicy part is the tiff between the trial court and the appeals court. In the end, the appeals court issued a rare "admonishment" of the trial court for this comments.

Star featured on UK Web site

We probably haven't done a good enough job "tooting our horn" over the press The Star has received nationally and internationally over our Web site and print product innovations.

Here is a story from a journalism site in England on our work.

Global warming brainwashing ...

As many of you know, I have serious concerns about the validity of some of the "science" on global warming.

But what REALLY concerns me is the shameless indoctrination on the subject.

To wit, here is a story from Canada on the blatant brainwashing being perpetrated by the education establishment there.

Not good at all.

Dry stretch

As you can see by this forecast, it will be bone dry in our area for at least the next 8 days.

Recent rains have helped, but we're still behind.....

Attn: Shelby Middle School carpoolers

Many mornings, I have the morning carpool for my children and others at Shelby Middle School. These are sixth-graders, so we go past the school, take a right and drop the children off there.

Sometimes, the line stretches around the corner, causing a small delay of 1-2 minutes.

It's amazing to me, though, to see parents simply drive around this line, bypassing those who are waiting their turn, and then knife in at the front.

When I was a kid, we called that cutting in line!

Why is this any different?

Shelby Middle parents, help me out -- what am I missing?!?!?

Remembering John Cline

It was probably four years ago, on the sidewalk in front of Ichabod's restaurant in Shelby.
Our family was together and we ran into John Cline, longtime member of the Cleveland County Sanitary District.

My wife Dina had been the district's lawyer some years back and that's how I had first gotten to know John. It was a friendship that blossomed. He came by often to visit me at The Star. More on those priceless times later.

On this day, though, in uptown Shelby, something unusual happened. My youngest son Will was just a toddler, which meant he was shy and even downright frightened of strangers. Bless his heart, but John Cline wasn't exactly the kind of person you'd expect to break through that type of fear -- well into his 80s with a weathered face and sharp features.

But he gave it a shot. Smiling and cooing with Will as Dina held him and we all talked.

Then it happened. Little arms that had clutched so tightly to mommy suddenly loosened that grip, then let go, then reached out for John. As our jaws dropped, his countenance brightened in a way words can't describe. He held Will like he would his own son. We talked some more and eventually, but reluctantly, he handed Will back to his mommy and we all went our ways.

"John Cline is here to see you"
If I'm being totally honest, there were a few times those weren't necessarily the words I wanted to hear. There is no one in this county that came to see me more often than John and sometimes those calls came in the middle of breaking news or just minutes before an important meeting.

Yet, I could never say no to a John visit. And no matter how busy, when our time was through, I was richer for the visit.

John cared about a lot of things and a lot of people. He was a rock-ribbed Republican. I tried to Google up the origin of the term "rock-ribbed Republican." No luck. Maybe it was invented by or for John. His involvement in party politics at the highest levels was a source of great pride.

He cared deeply about the upper end of Cleveland County. Some of that love translated to resentment of "the city," meaning Shelby. Hearing his views helped me gain perspective on that endless debate which rages anywhere rural and urban cultures cross.

John treasured his service on the sanitary district board. His life was consumed by the current efforts to bring a reservoir to Upper Cleveland. I (and undoubtedly many others) would teasingly start out conversations with John: "So, how's it coming on the new John Cline Lake?" He would wave off the title, but the strong glint in his eye would reveal his love affair with the project and his investment in its success. He and district manager Butch Smith were always working on some angle to try and speed up the reservoir process. He could barely contain his impatience with the federal red tape that brought the process to a crawl.

And I can't leave out an important passion of John's -- The Star. He devoured the paper daily. Often, he would call to commend me on an editorial view or story. He was always lobbying -- in John's ever-so-effective and courteous way -- for more coverage of the district. He would do it like this: "Skip, you think we can get a reporter up to our next meeting. It's going to be real important." How could I say no?

The hat
John was a figure. Not in the sense of "public figure" but in the sense of having a true presence. His hat was as much a fixture on his head as the one worn by legendary Alabama Coach Paul "Bear" Bryant. Yet, he would remove the hat when he came and sat in my office, the ultimate display of courtesy and respect. I hope that hat finds its way into the formal remembrance of John.

Even as a Republican in a Democratic county, he was impossible not to like. At Chamber meetings, when John was introduced, he always elicited smiles from the group. He was just a nice man, always bringing me books of interest and offering me produce and such.

John's service in World War II was an integral part of who he was. Often he would say to me "I don't like to talk about that very much," when his service would come up in conversation. When something 60 years past is too painful for a man like John Cline to talk about, it must have been worse than anything I could imagine.

And finally, John's faith was his source of all this goodness. He was deeply involved in his church, often telling me about transitions to new pastors and such. John and I also talked occasionally of his family, but I will leave those observations to those closer to his kin.

Farewell
And so, our visits at The Star would end. John would get up and offer a firm handshake. Then, without fail, he would turn to me and smile and say "How's that Will doin'?" Four years later, and the World War II veteran well into his 80s remembered that day he held my toddler as freshly as if it had happened a few minutes prior. He would ask for the latest picture of Will and marveled at the speed at which he had grown.

Only at the word of his passing do I finally get it.

My little Will sensed what so many of us had felt over the years -- John Cline was just somebody you enjoyed being close to.

Farewell GOP

Terrific column by my colleague Steve Greenhut at the Orange County Register. For Steve, it appears, it's no longer good enough to say "Got to stick with those Republicans because they're at least better than Democrats."

These days, you can barely tell the two apart.

Duke "scandal" post mortem

I wrote this article way back in April about the use of the word "scandal."

Funny how things turn out....

Is global warming even bad?

This is a terrific article from Newsweek. The idea that global warming is a bad thing is based on the arrogant assumption that our current-day temperatures are ideal. Given the ever-changing nature of the earth's climate, this is an absurd assumption which this column does an excellent job of debunking.

Compelling read from Iraq

I know there's lots of talk about not enough "good news" from Iraq, but stories like this from today's New York Times make those complaints ring hollow -- you wont find any opinion or slant in this article, just strong narrative describing horrific conditions. Very sad.

My dad, the writer

As this story in The (Lakeland Fla.) Ledger details, my father has been published.

Now, if everyone who reads this blog will just go out and buy 100 copies each .....

More global warming common sense

This devastating column by Thomas Sowell is a must read if you have fallen for the radical environmentalist/far left campus elitists' propaganda on global warming.

Folks, these people have an agenda and aren't going to let the facts get in the way of their thesis.

Star featured in Washington Post

I think our move away from the paragraph was a little oversold, but otherwise, it's flattering to be mentioned in a major publication such as this.

Brenda Sue, cont.

Megan Ward was interviewed by a local radio station on the Brenda Sue case. You can check it out on www.shelbystar.com. Click on the "podcast" tab in the "interactive features" section.

Brenda Sue

Hard to believe how this story has captured the imagination of the community. I hope everyone read our editorial on this case earlier in the week.

I've had a few calls complaining that we have "convicted" Mr. Price in this case. Of course, we have not done that, but I understand how the strong play we've given the story might leave that impression.

No way getting around it, though, this is one of the biggest arrests in the county's history.

If you have any question or comments on our coverage, leave them here or e-mail me at skipfoster@shelbystar.com

Global warming caused by man?

You may think this is no longer a question, but a fact.

Yet, the intelligensia has become so left-lurching on college campuses (where most so-called research is currently conducted) that I am dubious of any claims generated from this arena.

Which is why when I stumbled on this column today, I wasn't surprised one bit.

Major winter storm Thursday

Looks like we're going to get hit pretty hard Thursday.


Best guess:
2-3 inches of snow
.25-.4 inches of ice on top.

That should be enough to bring down some trees, as well as the obvious travel problems.

The forecast could turn snowier if temps don't start climbing faster in what's left of this afternoon.

Here is a nice Google map plotting temps. As of this writing (1:30 p.m.) Shelby's airport is at 35F with Crest Middle reporting 33F. The high today was supposed to be 40.

Thanks for the thanks

Been overwhelmed on kind words from folks about my new position as publisher of The Star (effective March 1). I will keep blogging, though -- it's crucial to our business's success that we keep communicating across all sorts of media and mediums.

Anyway, I'll get back to my regularly scheduled blogging now that the hubbub of the last few weeks has passed.

Thanks again,
Skip

This is going to be ugly

We should all be sympathizing with the folks in Oklahoma, who are about to endure a vicious ice storm.

Here is a link to some of the warnings up for the Oklahoma City area.

Please take note of this excerpt:

ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF INCH TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND
WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE
BRANCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES IN SOME AREAS.



Remember, our bad ice storms of the past few years were caused by about 1/2 inch of ice -- can you imagine three times that amount?!?!?

Not good.

Political correctness continues to run amok

This story really speaks for itself and is, I'm afraid, quite a statement on how political correctness has infected media coverage.

Materialism Christ-like?

I thought this was an excellent column by Tibor Machan.

He touches on the oft-overlooked point that participating in a free market is the most compassionate thing one can do for fellow man.

Keeping market conditions such that profits are high and, hence, employment is too serves the well-being of other men and women as much as anything we can do.

That's not to say we should purchase in excess or shirk our responsibilities to serve the poor, but to say that materialism is selfish is really to ignore basic realities of economics.

Covering a tragedy

We do lots of things at The Star that I love -- covering elections, sports, big weather stories, conducting investigations.

Covering tragedies is not on the list.

Covering tragedies involving people close to me or my friends or family is definitely not on the list.

Yet, it's part of the job, so we have worked hard over the weekend to cover the Chitty plane crash thoroughly yet sensitively.

I thought you'd be interested in a walkthrough of how it happened.

I was first called at home sometime in the mid-afternoon by our reporter on duty Sunday, Cherish Wilson.

She told me about the crash (normally, a small plane crash in Charlotte would merit only passing coverage in The Star), then dropped the bombshell -- she had received a tip that Jim Chitty and his wife were on board.

When my wife was an attorney doing title work, she crossed paths with Jim, so she knew where he fit into to the family trees of Shelby. That gave me some folks whom I could call that I knew very well -- this was important to me because I don't like to "spring" the news on unsuspecting family members unless they know who I am.

Anyway, while the folks I called couldn't give me immediate confirmation, after some calling around they basically said: "We're hearing what you're hearing."

Initially, the only discussion was of two people on the flight.

Soon, we received confirmation that the plane was indeed registered to Chitty.

It wasn't until late in the afternoon that we started hearing that there were possibly four passengers on board.

We contacted the funeral home which put us in touch with a relative in Wilmington who also confirmed that he was told by Charlotte police that four people perished.

Final confirmation of this fact didn't come from the NTSB until about 11 p.m.

In the meantime, we had lots of conversations with folks who had second- or third-hand knowledge of possible conversations between Chitty and the Charlotte control tower. As of yet, we have not been able to confirm those well enough to put them into print. Suffice to say, the consensus of these accounts is that there was some indication of trouble, but we'll have to wait for the preliminary report, which should come out next week.

We also chose our pictures for the paper judiciously. Some images published by other outlets showed personal effects and even clothes up in trees. We felt like those were not appropriate and added nothing to the story. I was also alarmed at some of the insensitive language used to describe the scene by at least one Charlotte TV outlet.

Anyway, if you have any questions or concerns about our coverage, please let me know through this blog or by e-mail to skipfoster@shelbystar.com


In the meantime, my thoughts and prayers go out to the Chitty family. We have a place on the orange bar at shelbystar.com for you to leave a message to them.

Rainy Christmas

If you have travel plan on Christmas Day -- indications are that it will be rainy. There is even a chance it could be snowy in the N.C. Mountains -- but not here.

An apology to Crest

This column will appear on Friday's editorial page of The Star.

A week ago in this very spot, The Star published a letter signed “Cletus Winfred, Crest High School class of 1989.” The letter strongly criticized Crest Coach Roy Kirby for a quotation in a previous edition of The Star, among other things.
Shortly thereafter, Crest Principal Roger Harris e-mailed me expressing concerns about the authenticity of the letter. Specifically, he wrote: “I just wanted you to know that nobody with the name Cletus Winfred has ever graduated from Crest High, in 1989 or any other year. In addition, our records show that nobody named Cletus Winfred has ever even been enrolled at Crest High. Neither, do we find anyone even close to that name (Wenfred, Winfreed, or anything similar.)”
At that point, we retraced our steps.
I would like to walk you through that process.
Here is how confirmation works on Letters to the Editor:
1) A letter is faxed, mailed or e-mailed to The Star.
2) If it includes a phone number (as requested in our Letter to the Editor submission policy), we call that number to confirm authorship.
3) If there is no number, sometimes we are able to track down the author by cross-referencing the name or a return address in the phone book.
4) If we can’t do that, we hold the letter until the author calls to ask why it hasn’t been published, then we go through the process again.
5) If we receive anonymous letters, we contact the author and let he or she know that it is our policy not to publish anonymous letters. Sometimes the author will agree to attach his or her name to the letter, sometimes not.
This letter was unusual. It was signed “Disgusted former Charger player (Class of ’89)
It also included a note at the bottom: “Please contact me if more information is needed. Ivory Miller” with a phone number and the address of the Cleveland County Law Enforcement Center.
We contacted Ms. Miller, who gave us an e-mail address for Winfred. We e-mailed him and spoke with him on the telephone to confirm the letter. This followed our normal confirmation procedures and the procedures used by newspapers nationwide.
Then came the e-mail from Principal Harris, which clearly meant we needed to obtain further confirmation.
We spoke with the person we believed to be the letter’s author again on Friday. He agreed to fax us a copy of his diploma.
We have not received that fax.
I e-mailed him again on Monday and received no response.
I called him on Wednesday and left a message, but received no response.
I called him again on Thursday morning and a recording said the number had been disconnected.
At that point, I walked to the courthouse and spoke with Ms. Miller, who works in the information services department.
She said Winfred was an “associate” of hers, but that she didn’t know him very well. She said she graduated in 1989 and “knew of him” as a student at Crest. When I asked her to explain how Winfred was not in any Crest records she said she didn’t know.
“All I did was drop off the letter, after that I really don’t know anything,” she said.
Ms. Miller said she didn’t have a phone number for Winfred and didn’t know anybody who did, but agreed to e-mail him to have him get in touch with The Star.
Ultimately, when the facts are not conclusive, one must rely on one’s intuition and experience.
My intuition tells me that Ms. Miller’s explanation does not hold water and that the failure of “Winfred” to bolster his authenticity or return our calls this week is telling.
Barring evidence that bolsters “Winfred’s” claim to be who he says he is, The Star is withdrawing its authentication of this letter.
For my part, the editing of the letter was poor. I like to let people “have their say,” but the language in this letter was scathing and I should have taken a stronger hand in toning that down.
Given all of this, we apologize to Crest Coach Roy Kirby, Principal Roger Harris and the Crest High School family.
If you have any questions or additional information on this matter, please e-mail me at skipfoster@shelbystar.com or call me at (704) 484-7000.

Sickness

Big story in the county this week is the amount of sickness, particularly in the schools. If you have any anecdotes or information to share on this situation, please post it here or call me at 484-7000.

Oversensitive?

My middle child's musical was at Jefferson Elementary Tuesday night. I grabbed the video camera at work and took some video for our Clevelandcountykids.com web site. I'm not very good, but tried to get lots of faces in.

Anyway, we promoed today on 2A and, by sheer coincidence, the still frame we picked had my son's picture in it.

AARRGGHH!

I have a rule here that my children should not appear in the paper unless there's no way around it (clearly, there WAS a way around it this time, although the person editing the video didn't know it was my son and then the others who handled that page didn't notice).

Should this bother me, or do I need to chill?

Christmas music

Well, I don't like it in November, but I'm cranking it up everytime I'm in the car, now that December is in full swing.

Must have: James Taylor's new Christmas album. In particular, "Go tell it on the Mountain" is wonderfully done.

Auntie Em! Auntie Em!

Was it windy today or what? Wild weather system -- in San Antonio, Texas, Wed. the temperature dropped 30 degrees in 2 hours!

Here is a cell phone picture I took on the way to Rotary of a tree down on Country Club Circle.

Christmas list

This is an editorial that appeared in Wednesday's Star. Feel free to add items to the list or to tell about how you "check off" one of the items on this list.




As the Christmas season cranks up, Santa is busy working on that infamous list. Mr. Claus’ string of “to dos” involves children’s behavior and their requests for toys.
But, with just under four weeks until Christmas, we offer you our own list of suggested Christmas activities.
Feel free to cut this out and check off the things that you do and then, if you wish, share with us your experiences. You can do that at Editor Skip Foster’s blog at sfoster.blogstar.com where he will have a post on this editorial.
Now, on to the list!


Adopt a Salvation Army Angel
We’ve all heard the claims of non-profits that “90 percent” of what is donated goes to the people in need. With Angel tree adoptions, however, you know that the entire gift goes to a needy child.
We can’t think of a more direct way to positively impact a child’s life than this.

Go caroling
When’s the last time you did this? Many churches have caroling at avnursing home or other facility. Much like a shiny toy can brighten up a child’s day, a heartfelt carol can send the spirits of a homebound senior citizen soaring.

Read the Nativity
For all the talk about the “reason for the season,” when is the last time you sat down, by yourself or as a family, and actually read the Gospel account of Jesus’ birth. Make it a Christmas Eve event or part of the season on some other day. You won’t regret it.

Go to a different church
We can’t remember a place in Scripture where Jesus refers to denominations. What a great time to enjoy the traditions of a different style or form of worship. Some denominations call this time of year Advent, a season of expectation and hope. The current movement in our community to bring people of different faiths, cultures and races together surely brings a smile to God’s face. Even if it’s simply going to another church’s cantata, find a time to experience this holy season in a new way.

Eschew trinkets
Don’t you get tired of buying those same $10 gifts for an endless list of co-workers, teachers, pseudo-neighbors and the like? Why not consolidate that buying power into providing something truly valuable, such as a part of a meal at the homeless shelter or clothing for a church closet. We don’t want to suggest you do anything that would hurt the economy like simply hoarding what you own, but instead, send a form note to all those folks who get “trinkets” for Christmas and tell them you made a donation in their name to a worthy cause.

Make up
Almost everybody has a damaged relationship. What better time to swallow hard and make amends. Maybe you’re still hurt, but if forgiveness were easy, it wouldn’t be so important. Reconciliation might be the best gift you give or receive this Christmas.

Exercise three times a week
Huh? Why exercise? It’s cold, it’s dark, and it’s so busy! We say, find a way. There is no getting around the stress of this season. Taking time to keep your body in shape will be another gift to yourself and those with whom you interact.

Have fun
Seems silly to say in what is supposed to be the season of joy. Yet, so often, going to get the Christmas tree or having a holiday party turns into work, not fun. Relax and enjoy the season!

You’ll notice that these items have boxes beside them. Hopefully you will be able to check off all of them. If so, we promise that your Christmas season will be brighter than ever.

Scalping

I'm going to write a column for the weekend on "scalping." I just don't understand why it's illegal for tickets to sporting and entertainment events, but legal for just about anything else.

I bring this up because of our story today on people waiting in line for the new Playstation 3. Many of them freely admitted they are buying the new "toys" just so they can resell them on E-bay at a profit. That is, they are going to scalp the Playstations -- why is this legal, when doing the exact same thing for football tickets isn't?

My question to all of you is this -- what are some other commonly "scalped" things? Antique furniture, sports memorabilia ... what else?

Thanks!

GWU perspective on Bobby Knight

Alan Ford did a great job tracking down GWU coach Rick Scruggs and putting together an interesting story on the Bobby Knight flap.

I went over to a Texas Tech message board and posted a link to our story. As you will see, Red Raider fans were very appreciative.

Urgent: Rabies emergency

We will be posting a breaking news in the next few minutes about a serious rabies problem in Cleveland County.

There is a missing black kitten with white paws and a white triangle under its neck which was given away in August at a yard sale at 855. E. Stagecoach Trail.

The man who bought the cat said he lived 5 miles east of that location and that he bought the cat for his brother's farm.

The cat's name was Socks.

Today, it was confirmed that one of Socks' siblings had rabies and has exposed at least 14 people.

The Health Department is urgently trying to locate Socks for fear that it has rabies and other humans or animals have been exposed.

If you know ANYTHING about this situation, please call the Health Department (484-5200), the Animal Shelter (481-9884) or county communications (484-4822).

And please pass along this message to as many people as you can.

Two early races to watch nationally

Two Indiana house seats will be a good indicator of how the night is going for Democrats and Republicans -- if Republicans Chocola (Dist. 2) and Sodrel (Dist. 9)lose, the Democrats will surely win enough seats to control the House. If those are too close to call initially or actually go Republican, the rumors of GOP demise may have been exaggerated.

About the Wednesday Star

Well, I'm a little bored right now, believe it or not. I'll rue posting that at about 9 p.m. tonight!

Thought you'd be interested in how we put together the Wednesday-after-the-election newspaper.

Deadlines:

We'll actually invert the news and sports deadlines tonight -- usually sports is last "off the floor" for obvious reasons (scores, etc.). Tonight, though, sports will finish much earlier than usual -- about 10:30 p.m. instead of midnight.

Our news deadline will be such that the press can start at 1:30 a.m. This is an hour later than usual. Hopefully, the weather will clear and delivery conditions will be good for our fine carrier force.

Our front page for tomorrow is already designed. While the headline obviously have not been written, I know that we'll be playing the sheriff and commissioner races on the front, regardless of what happens. Then, I'll have one more spot to rotate in the most important race.

At the top of the page, will be a list of the winners of all the important races, including who has control of the General Assembly and Congress.

We'll "bust" our left hand rail Wednesday (in newsroom lingo, that means we'll get rid of it) and run an election rail instead.

Inside, there will be an open full page (open means no ads) with more stories from other races, a full page precinct chart (we left it out one year and you screamed, so it's back!) and a full page full color graphic from AP showing U.S. House/Senate/Gov. races.

Further inside the paper, you'll find more stories of local, state and national interest.

It's a huge day for us -- a Lifestyles reporter, obit clerk, special projects editor and others from outside their normal areas of responsibilities will all be working -- it's probably the only day of the year that everybody in the newsroom is working at the same time.

Hope you find what you need!

Predictions

OK, the election is finally upon us.

THANK HEAVENS!

I always forget how much I hate these campaigns -- so often, they're not about real issues, but about personalities and petty attacks. The "nuts" on either side spinning up all their conspiracy theories are particularly onerous and contribute nothing to the process but hate and division. I hope they're proud of themselves.

The "horse race" part of election is a little fun, though. In that spirit, here are my predictions on how the races will turn out.

LOCAL
Clerk
While things are changing, it's just tough for Republicans to get elected to county-wide offices in Cleveland County. Claudia Glenn has campaigned hard, but I don't think it will be enough.

Mitzi McGraw-Johnson (D) 56 percent
Claudia Glenn (R) 44 percent

DA
This one has gotten nasty. Colin McWhirter is banking on a big win in Lincoln County and then a push in Cleveland. Rick Shaffer is hoping for the inverse. Both have worked hard in this race.

Rick Shaffer (D) 52 percent
Colin McWhirter (R) 48 percent

Sheriff
While it's easy to say this race has been ugly as well, the truth is, my expectations were so low, they have not been "met." That is, it could have been worse. I think Don Allen has effectively attacked the Hamrick administration and will pull the upset.

Don Allen (R) 51 percent
Raymond Hamrick (D) 49 percent

N.C. House Dist. 110 and 112
Debbie Clary (R) and Bob England (D), respectively, cruise to easy wins.
N.C. House Dist. 111
Nice late surge by Betsy Fonvielle, but it won't quite be enough to overcome the incumbent. Look for closer margin than expected, though.
Tim Moore (R) 53 percent
Betsy Fonvielle (D) 47 percent

N.C. Senate Dist. 46
My gut tells me this could be the closest race on election night. The tie goes to the incumbant.
Walter Dalton (D) 51
Wes Westmoreland 49 (R)

County commissioner
I'll be honest, this is a total guess. One refrain I've heard alot this year: It's so nice to have four qualified candidates. By the way, the percentages are too confusing on these multi-seat races, so I'm just picking the winners:

Jo Boggs (D)
Bill Chambless (R)

Control of U.S. House and Senate
Late surge by GOP (Kerry gaffe) will allow it to hold Senate at 51-49 while losing 18 house seats and, hence, control of that body.

Control of N.C. House and Senate
Democrats hold on to both easily.

Court of Appeals/Supreme Court races

If you're like me, the state judges races are almost an exercise in futility -- who are these people? What do they stand for?

Here is a guide you might consider using to cast your ballots -- it's a column written by First Amendment attorney John Bussian in the North Carolina Press association monthly newsletter (John's column is on Page 3).

Bussian offers recommendation based on the candidates' stances on open government issues.

Please consider using this a voting guide for these important positions.

Too funny

I saw this picture on The Drudge Report.

It speaks for itself.

Tee hee.

Dems planning "Google bomb?"

I saw this on a story idea blog I frequent called Al's Morning meeting.

He was pitching a story about Democrats launching a "Google bomb" right before Election Day.

What is a Google bomb? Here is a primer, but basically it means placing the most negative stories possible at the top of Google searches on Republican candidates.

What will they think of next?

The bag

We've taken at least one call about the bag in which The Star was delivered today. The outside of the bag is an advertisement for Wes Westmoreland, who is running for state senate.

The bag containing The Star is always for sale to advertisers, political or otherwise.

Democrats have just as much of a chance to purchase that space as Republicans and vice-versa.

Our coverage of this or any other race is in no way affected by the purchase of this non-traditional form of advertising. Just like our coverage isn't affected by who purchases an ad on a typical news page inside the paper.

If you have any questions, please let me know.

Dean Smith doesn't get it

Here is an excerpt from an AP story moving today:

Legendary North Carolina basketball coach Dean Smith says in a planned newspaper ad campaign that being a person of faith and voting Democratic can go together.
``I'm a lifelong Baptist and vote for Democrats,'' Smith says in the ad. ``One reason? Democrats are serious about alleviating poverty.''
Smith declined comment about the ad.
The campaign is the product of Devout Democrats, a new Chapel Hill-based political action committee headed by University of North Carolina law student Chip Muller.


I fail to see how stealing other people's money and giving it to the poor is in anyway aligned with the teaching of Jesus. Nowhere in the Bible did Jesus say: "Take the shirt off your back and give it to the poor and if your neighbor won't voluntarily give his shirt, take it from him yourself." Democrats want to allieviate poverty through coercion and theft. Those are NOT Christian tenets.

Even if the philosophical point wasn't indefensible, there is the practical reality that liberal "poverty reduction" programs have never worked and will never work.

Stick to hoops, coach.

Foley scandal

Lots of talk in media circles about the Foley scandal. I was an Ethics Fellow at the Poynter Insitute a few years back -- we maintain a listserv which fires up during these types of situations. Here is a post I made in response to journalist who didn't buy the explanation by the St. Pete Times regarding why it didn't publish a story on the matter some time back.


I'm trying to understand the "blew it" position. Having trouble.

As I understand it, here are the facts the Times and Co. had in front of them:

A U.S. Congressmen sent e-mails to a page.

They were friendly and, for the most part, harmless (Katrina, etc.) The most incriminating part of the e-mails was when the congressmen requested a "pic."

There was nothing sexual in the e-mails obtained by the Times.

The page questioned whether the e-mails were "out of bounds," asking a staffer in another congressman's office.

The page, when interviewed, said the request for a picture made him "uncomfortable."

The family did not want the page named

Later, the family said, through a different congressman, they did not want to pursue a story.

Not only did the paper not find a pattern, but the only other page it could find did not have a similar experience.

The congressman in question denied anything untoward.


If I were the editor, relying on these facts, it would have been an easy call: No publication.

As Poynter has taught us so many times, it's about balancing benefit and harm. There was only a whiff of evidence that something improper was going on here. Yet, publication of a story would have immediately painted the congressman as a pervert, no matter how carefully and discreetly the story was reported. To me, it's way too easy to draw a line back from the final outcome and claim the story should have been published. Maybe I'm missing some evidence that the papers had, but based on what I've read, it fell way short of publishable material.

Skip Foster