The 12Z GFS run now has the storm suppressed to our south and east which, for me, is GREAT news, because the models have been terribly biased in the OPPOSITE direction all season -- that is, storms that looked good for us trended north and west as the event drew near.
These system never seem to get colder. Remember the big February snow we had a couple years back -- about 5 days out, models showed us getting zip, but eventually they trended north and we hit the jackpot.
More good news: The Euro is back on board, showing a nice little snow and a Miller A system. Interesting, we only see a minor event because the Euro doesn't really bomb out the low until it gets directly to our east -- by then the precip is starting to shut down. But I'd take 1-2 inches over a cold rain any day.
Finally the National Weather Service has taken notice -- here the current forecast for Cleveland County:
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT..MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.
So, it's fun to at least have something to track. Usually, the magic window is about 78 hours -- if you can get a storm still showing up on model at that time frame (so, in this case, Thursday morning), you've got a good shot at seeing snow.
Not changing my percentages now, but might bump them up tonight or tomorrow if model trends hold.