Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Tuesday afternoon update: Hopes are high

The 12Z GFS run now has the storm suppressed to our south and east which, for me, is GREAT news, because the models have been terribly biased in the OPPOSITE direction all season -- that is, storms that looked good for us trended north and west as the event drew near.

These system never seem to get colder. Remember the big February snow we had a couple years back -- about 5 days out, models showed us getting zip, but eventually they trended north and we hit the jackpot.

More good news: The Euro is back on board, showing a nice little snow and a Miller A system. Interesting, we only see a minor event because the Euro doesn't really bomb out the low until it gets directly to our east -- by then the precip is starting to shut down. But I'd take 1-2 inches over a cold rain any day.

Finally the National Weather Service has taken notice -- here the current forecast for Cleveland County:

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT..MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.

So, it's fun to at least have something to track. Usually, the magic window is about 78 hours -- if you can get a storm still showing up on model at that time frame (so, in this case, Thursday morning), you've got a good shot at seeing snow.

Not changing my percentages now, but might bump them up tonight or tomorrow if model trends hold.

7 comments:

Big Mama Vikki said...

What is this Z you keep talking baout, like 12Z and 6Z I must have missed something, because I am lost! I have gathered that it has soemthing to do with time, but beyond that I am lost!

Skip Foster said...

GOOD QUESTION!

12z refers to a time -- 12 zulu, also known as 12 GMT.

That's the time the model run started.

To get Eastern time, subtract 5 hours. So 12z is a model run based on date collected up until 7 a.m. 18z until noon and 0z up until 7 p.m.

Generally, the date for 12z runs is available by late morning to early afternoon and so on.

Hope that helps!

Anonymous said...

Everyone think SNOW!!!!

big mama-a lot of the military shows also use "zulu." "Jag" was one of my favorites, but it doesn't come on anymore.

Good question, btw!

Anonymous said...

pray for snow, not ice

hounddog said...

Update us on this snow Skip PLEASE!!!! Is it coming or not? WHat are our chances today IYO? MAN I hope it snows my baby has never seen any (she is 17 months) and I cant wait to see her face when it finally does!!

Anonymous said...

I will believe it when I see it. I have come to find that when you forcast snow for us it usually doesnt come but if it is more than likely going to miss us then it happens to give us a little dust. Dont get your hopes up!!!

Big Mama Vikki said...

Thanks Skip, that helped alot! Now I understand!