7:50 a.m. update: This event is over; next one looms

Well, after my last post at 1:45 a.m. I took one last walk outside and darned if it didn't change to sleet just as I headed back inside. So, I wasn't surprised to see basically the same picture out my window when I woke up as when I went to bed.

The event looks to be over. Temps are at or above freezing, as best I can tell, in and around Cleveland County.

Looks like snow amounts ranged from 1-2 inches in Cleveland County. Rutherford County reported 3 inches with 4-6 in some mountain locations. I haven't gotten outside to check on the ice coating, but looking out my window, I don't see any trees dramatically bent over or branches on the ground.

The 1-2 was squarely in the middle of my "minor event" range in which I had the largest percentage chance of happening.

Now, on to Saturday. Unlike the relative model consistency we had with this storm, there is wide divergance just 54 hours on Storm No. 2. The meteogram attached to this post is from the 6z NAM.

Check out the second area of precip (on the right). As you can see 850 temps are solidly below freezing and we are AT freezing at the surface -- ALL SNOW. If taken literally, we're talking 6-8 inches.

Now, remember, the NAM overestimated the precip on our current system.

The GFS, on the other hand, misses us almost completely to the east. It is just as "wet" as the NAM, but that moisture is not over us. As a result, we get just a dusting of snow.

BUT, our old friend the EURO is solidly in the Saturday storm camp, spitting out a 2-8 storm across the region. There is also support from the Canadian and UK models.

So, VERY interesting and actually better POTENTIAL than this current storm, for which temperatures was always going to be an issue (and they still could be for the next storm, but there looks to be more leeway there).

Feel free to post your final observations and thoughts in this thread -- I'll update later today on the Saturday storm.

1:45 a.m. update: Packing it in -- but important parting thoughts

Couple things -- first off, when sleet and freezing rain begin to fall they will compact the snow that has fallen, so depending on when you crash and when that changover occurs, you might see less snow when you wake up then when you went to bed.

Secondly, however, some great looking bands getting ready to move through -- wouldn't surprise me one bit to wake up to 4-6 inches of snow.

Third, models are making a stunning move toward a SATURDAY snow storm (I've touched on this recently).

Now, pro mets who have early access to the Euro say it has come around and shows a snow here Saturday.

More on that in the AM.

Thanks for hanging with me folks -- I'll be up early to catch up.

12:45 a.m. update: Snow in Shelby

Finally (although actually right on schedule) it is snowing here in Shelby. Sounds like much of Cleveland County is getting snow. Next up -- when will snow start to accumulate and how much.

Keep those reports coming!

11:50 update: It's time

Just got a report of moderate to heavy snow in Gaffney -- I believe this is the band that will graduate us beyond flurries to some real snow -- temps are dropping across the county, evident that the column is being saturated and all the precip can start making it to the ground.

I expect (gulp) that by 1. a.m. at least the southern locations of Cleveland County will some decent snowfall.

Famous last words? We shall see.

Keep those reports coming! If you're going to make fun of us snow lovers, you're comments will have a short life.

11 p.m update: Does snow observe state lines?

It's almost like a wall at the N.C./S.C. state line -- have to keep reminding myself that this is just what the models forecasted -- onset of precip at around midnight, give or take. Still, it's tough to see the snow on radar just 30 or so miles away -- and hear reports from Gaffney and Spartanburg.

0Z GFS actually came in wetter -- giving us .8 inches of precip -- it's highest total so far. And upstream radar still filling in over Alabama, so still hours upon hours of precip to go.

But, if you're like me, you want the snow NOW, darnit, NOW!

I'll be very anxious to hear observations from Gaffney/Blacksburg/Boiling Springs/Mooresboro/Earl and other areas south and west.

On toward midnight!

10:20 update: A new radar look (time sensitive)

Here is the NWS radar out of GSP. See the darker bands getting ready to hit Greenville? I think that's what "breaks though" our brick wall of dry air and brings us snow -- probably an hour or 2 away, maybe less.

Also, here is the 0z NAM snowfall map somebody requested in a comment. Still a range of 5-7 inches (8 up in the South Mountains).

9:45 p.m. update: Great looking radar

If you check out this radar loop, you'll see the precip backfilling nicely in Alabama -- that's a long way for precip to go to clear our area. We just have to be patient and let the precip work through all that dry air. Could be after midnight before it really starts coming down -- generally speaking those in the southwest part of the county (B. Springs) should see heavier snow first, with Fallston and Toluca last, although there will be exceptions to this.

By the way, NAM makes a big jump later in the period and gives us another hit on Saturday, as you can see here.

Keep those reports coming -- I might pull an all-nighter. Who's with me??????

9:20 update: Very light flurries in Shelby

Light flurries falling at my house in Shelby right now.

8:30 p.m. update: Snowing in Spartanburg

Not much new to report -- our wetbulb continues to sit at around freezing, so once precipitation starts falling through our very dry air, the temperature will drop.

Remember, the earliest we were expecting snow was 10 p.m., so anything before then is just a bonus.

There is some concern upstream that the snow in N. Georgia switched to freezing rain sooner than expected. We'll have to keep an eye on that.

Still like the 2-4 inch EDIT: SNOW! with some sleet and/or freezing rain after that.

Anybody reading this in the Gaffney area, please post when snow begins to fall.

7 p.m. update: Snow reported in Clemson, Augusta

1 inch on the ground in Dawsonville, Ga. and areas around Atlanta.

Precip having a VERY hard time overcoming our dry atmosphere -- the low dewpoints help us when it comes to getting snow instead of rain, but we lose some accumulation because it takes awhile for the atmosphere to be moistened. Don't be surprised if you check out a radar and it shows precip right over your house, but you go outside and nothing's happening -- that precip is drying up before it hits the ground -- but as that is happening, your temperature will start to drop.

Right now we're at 40 with a dewpoint of 14.

Update: Now snowing in Atlanta, headed our way

Widespread reports of snow in Not-so-hotlanta.

The final verdict on the 18Z Nam is a historic snowstorm of 6-12 inches. The 18z GFS is colder and snowier, but with less than half the total precip -- so more like 2-6 inches.

I'd be happy with any of that, wouldn't you?

Right now, I'd bank on about 4 inches of snow followed by a layer of sleet and ending as a glaze of ice, but we could get double (or half) that snow amount and it wouldn't surprise me.

You'll find all sorts of links to coverage on our home page -- if you take pictures of the storm with your cell phone or camera, send them in. Also, you'll be able to share storm reports. Finally, we'll be sending out The Star car to cover the storm.

More updates through the night!

FLASH: 18Z NAM goes nuts!!

It's almost too late to look at models, mainly because they rarely change in this tight to the actual event.

Don't tell that to the NAM.

It just turned a moderate to major winter storm into a Big Dog storm. NAM precip jumps from .8 inches in Cleveland County to a whopping 1.25 inches.

If that is all frozen we will have a collosal winter storm.

If that's all snow -- 8-12 inches.

If it's half snow, half ice, 4-6 inches of snow with a cripping coating of .5 inches of ice on top.

If it's mostly ice -- let's not even go there.

Haven't been able to analyze the temps yet, but this run is incredible if even close to reality.

Weather update: From marginal, to minor, to moderate, to major?

It seems very clear that this storm is going to be stronger than many expected. I will be shocked if the NWS does not upgrade us to a Winter Storm Warning.

The cold trend in the models from overnight and early today is now being verified (if not STILL underdone) in current conditions. Snow is breaking out over central Alabama and Georgia.

Winter weather advisories have been extended far to our south - as far south east as Orangeburg, S.C. and as far southwest as Augusta, Ga.

Also, after trending yesterday to a more icy event, there is now a move to a sleetier and especially snowier event.

Here's how the event should unfold, based on the observations of a number of mets who post on message boards and model trends -- we will experience a considerable amount of what is called "virga" late this afternoon and tonight. Virga is precipitation that can often be picked up on radar, but which dries before it reaches the ground.

This begins the process of cooling the lower levels of the atmosphere (see earlier post on evaporational cooling and wet bulb temps).

By around midnight, give or take 2 hours, precipitation will start reaching the ground. It's possible this will be as rain for just a few minutes before snow kicks in.

Right now, it looks like snow will fall for at least 4 hours and as long as 8 or possibly even 10 hours. After that time, whatever it is, we will see a transition to sleet, then perhaps freezing rain. It's possible the CAD will be so strong that we stay below freezing for the entire event.

Here is the final percentage breakdown:
No precip: 0 percent
All rain: less than 1 percent
Marginal event (less than 1 inch of snow; very light icing): 10 percent
Minor event (1-2 inches of snow; .1 inches of icing): 25 percent
Moderate event (2-4 inches of snow; .1-.25 inches of icing) 45 percent
Major event (4 or more inches of snow; .25 or more of icing) 20 percent

Look for more updates throughout the day and night and morning!

Good radar link

Here is a good link to follow precip moving our way.


And here's another good link to follow temperature/dew point/wet bulb temperatures.

Speaking of temps, I'm a little concerned by this bright sunshine which was beating down until about 30 minutes ago.

Temps up to 42, but dewpoint still just 12.

One "s" word I should have mentioned ....

Sleet.

I don't understand how to read the soundings and other date to determine the atmospheric profile that indicates freezing rain vs. sleet, but apparently, someone in the SE will receive a good amount of sleet from this storm. Remember that big sleetstorm we had a few years back? I don't remember the year, but I recall that it was in the 60s one day, then by that night we had an inch of sleet on the ground.

One thing to look for today....

We are in "nowcasting" mode -- that is, the models become less relevant compared to actual observered conditions.

With that in mind, one thing to look for today is our high temperature.

The NWS has us reaching 47 degrees as a high.

My guess is, that will be vastly overstated -- if some cloud cover moves in, we'll be lucky to break 40.

And if we don't get to 40, that could have huge implications for the storm.

Will this dream map come true?

6z NAM snowfall map for the Southeast.

You'll note that the upper part of the county is in the 5-inch swath with 4 inches for the rest of us.

These maps are significantly less reliable than some of the numeric data, but still fun to look at and wish for.

7 a.m. weather update: Ramping it up!

The late trend is for a stronger storm. This started with 0z model runs and was strengthened with the 6z runs.

The 6z NAM shows us getting 2-3 inches of snow followed by a significant ice glaze. The 6z GFS has the same kind of temperature profile, but has markedly less precip -- it shows us with around an inch of snow followed by .1 to .2 glaze of ice, which is in line with the current NWS forecast.

Right now, I'd probably split the difference and go for 1-2 inches of snow and a .2 glaze of ice -- this would be very close to enough snow/ice to do damage to trees so this even now bears close watching in that respect.

More updates through the day.

Weather update: 11 p.m. Tuesday

Very brief because I'm very tired -- 0z GFS come in a tad colder but is still way short on precip when compared to the NAM -- about half.

If you took GFS temps and NAM precip, you'd have a major winter storm -- vice-versa, not so much.

I'll update my percentage tomorrow morning -- might go for slightly stronger system based on tonight's model runs.

National Weather Service issues Winter Storm Watch

Cleveland County is under a Winter Storm Watch as of about 30 minutes ago.

The latest run of the NAM is a trend back toward a more significant event -- the run is not over so I can't check detailed data yet, but taken at face value it looks like perhaps an inch of snow and then more ice than model showed earlier today.

I'll update again tonight after the 0z GFS run.

Weather update: Time for a call

This appears to be a minor, perhaps even marginal, event -- of course, when you've gone two years without ANY event, even minor events are worth SOMETHING.

Here's how it looks:


Precip will begin sometime between midnight and 5 a.m. Thursday morning, probably as a brief burst of snow. It will mix with, then transition to sleet rather quickly. At best, the snow and sleet are enough to cover the ground, but there may not even be that much.

Then we transition to freezing rain. We'll see light icing -- on the order of .1 to .2 inches, then it will turn to rain with temps holding between 32 and 35 for the rest of the day.

This is very close to what the NWS forecast which comes out later today will show and falls in the "marginal event" which was tied for my highest percentage probability Monday afternoon.

What can go wrong: 1) The model trend toward warming continues and we end up with all or nearly all rain. 2) Precip is so light that evaporational cooling does not kick in fully and we end up with all rain

What can go right: 1) Models significantly underestimate the strength of the CAD and we see a longer period of snow, giving us 1-2 inches, before a changeover to ice. 2) The NAM is right, precip is heavy and "dynamical cooling" helps keep precip frozen.

We're still about 36 hours for onset -- that is enough time for changes.

Current percentages:
No precip: Less than 1 percent
All rain: 35 percent
Marginal event (dusting of snow/slight ice glaze) 40 percent
Minor event (1-2 inches of snow/minor ice coating) 20 percent
Moderate event (2-4 inches of snow/moderate ice coating) 5 percent
Major event (4 or more inches of snow/major ice coating) less than 1 percent

Also, an important note, the UK model shows ANOTHER system affecting us Friday night into Saturday. The Euro and GFS suppress the system to our south and east -- this would be either snow or nothing (no ice or rain --- too cold). Looks like a long shot, but worth keeping an eye on.

Weather update: Bad trend -- ice overtaking snow as early precip-type

Very slight, subtle warming in the latest model runs -- perhaps only raising our temps by 1 degree or so -- could be setting stage for a minor to moderate ice storm.

And if the trend continues, our winter storm might become nothing more than a bone-chilling, raw, cold rain.

The latest NAM -- which has been the model of choice for snow lovers, warmed up every so slightly on its 12z run.

Yet, the difference between 30.8 and 32.3 degrees is, obviously, enormous.

Is it over? Hardly. We could still see a burst of snow to start --- maybe even an inch or two.

But it's looking more like the transition to freezing rain will be quick -- then the question is: how long does THAT last. Hopefully, the change to a cold rain will come quickly -- I don't know anybody from around here rooting for an ice storm.

Adjusted percentages coming later today.

Weather update: See post below, but check out this map

I have a post below with my late Monday night thoughts, but check out this map of what the NAM is forecasting for snowfall.

Can you pick out Cleveland County? Incredibly, we are RIGHT on the line -- if this were to verify, Kings Mountain would get less than an inch while Casar got 5!

Weather update: Getting very interesting

The 0z run of the NAM is out and it's a major hit -- 1-3 inches of snow followed by a serious ice storm. Is it right? Could be. As you will see from the picture I'm posting, the temps are as close as you can get. Above is what is called a meteogram. In layman's terms, this shows precise temperature forecasts at a given weather station, in this case, Shelby's airport.

As you can see, the NAM shows 29.2 mm of precip fall during this event -- that's just under 1 inch.

The two lines that are key to observe are the 850mb temperature line and the 2m temperature line.

For there to be snow, very generally speaking, both of those lines need to below 0C. As you can see, that's the case for the first 6 hours of the event during which about 8 mm of precip falls -- that's about 1/4 of the total precip which would be a 1-3 inch snow.

Again, generally speaking, when 850 temps are above freezing and 2m temps are below, you have ice. So, this depicts icing for the last .75 inches of precip -- which would not be good.

Now, a couple of things: First, the temps here are very close -- normally to get a real killer ice storm, you need temperatures as low as 30 or even the upper 20s -- otherwise what is called "latent heat release" (subtle, slight warmth generated when water freezes) can cause the temperature to rise above freezing.

On the other hand, even in this short range, models struggle to pick up on the strength of CAD.

In any event, this bears very close watching -- the NAM keeps trending stronger with precip and the GFS is trending stronger with the high pressure (up to 1032 mb last run). If both of those are right ..... could get REAL interesting.

Not sure if I'll stay up for the 0z GFS, but if so, I'll make a quick post.

Weather update: It's a close call, but confidence grows

First, a friendly reminder -- I'm not a meteorologist and for the most part, don't know what the heck I'm talking about. But I follow it as a hobby and can aggregate for you what the REAL experts think.

So, here's the story:

Confidence grows that we will see SOME sort of winter weather, starting Thursday morning.

The key factors:

1) The track of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico -- over the last 48 hours, models have been nudging that to the north which makes our temperature forecast razor thin when it comes to winter precip.

2) The strength of the low and of the high pressure to the north. On the former, it means more precip on the latter it means a stronger CAD. The latest run of the short-range model NAM spit out more than .8 inches of precip -- if that was all frozen, any combination of snow and ice would be serious. For example if 1/4 was snow, then the rest ice, we'd be talking 1-2 inches of snow then .3 to .4 inches of ice -- a killer ice storm. If 1/2 and 1/2, it would be 2-4 inches of snow, then .1-.2 inches of ice -- still very dangerous.

3) The TIMING of the low -- if it lollygags, we'll see less snow and a quicker changeover to ice then rain. If it scoots in here quickly, we'll see more snow on the front end.

Now, we need to talk about that "i" word I mentioned before: ice. There are indications that the changeover from snow could happen quickly and that it would be to mostly freezing rain. Still too early to pin this down, but something that must be monitored.

Also, I should note that the coldest sustained airmass of the season (as alluded to last week) will move in behind this system. We will see a number of days in a row with highs in the 30s and 40s and lows in the teens and 20s -- maybe even lower.

So, here's the latest breakdown:
No precipitation to speak of: <1 percent
All rain: 30 percent
Marginal winter event (a dusting to less than an inch of snow/slight ice coating) 30 percent
Minor winter event (1-2 inches of snow/minor ice coating) 24 percent
Moderate winter event (3-5 inches of snow/moderate icing) 14 percent
Major winter event (6 or inches of snow/major icing) 2 percent

Adding most of the new weight to marginal and minor event.

GFS just rolling in -- pretty much holding serve.

By tomorrow morning we'll be within 48 hours!

"According to a new study ...."

I've lamented before the misuse of so-called scientific studies and the questionalbe methodology of the studies themselves.

Here are some great examples of "science" that wasn't in 2007.

Weather update: Still in the hunt

There is a thing call climatology, which basically says: what usually happens weather-wise is what will probably happen.

Lately, what usually happens is that whenever computer models show us getting winter weather, it manages to bust.

Usually this is manifested by a few tantalizing runs of computer models followed by dashed hopes.

In that respect, my confidence that we see winter weather is higher than it has been in 2 years -- the GFS model has been relentless in its depiction of an event. Now the storm is coming into range of the shorter range NAM model and it too shows an event. The only model not on board is the European, which shows our low driving north right over our head -- not a good track for snow.

This is a classic CAD (cold-air damming) event - one key will be the strength of the high pressure to our north that feeds in the cold air which will convert precip to snow. The latest run projected a 1029 mb high, up slightly from the previous run -- anything 1030 or higher is considered a strong high pressure system which can be relied upon for a nice feed of cold, dry air.

Let's compare the GFS to the NAM and see how close they are:

Here is the 0z GFS at in the wee hours of Thursday morning.
And here is the NAM in the same time frame.
Then here is the NAM by dawn Thursday.
You can see the NAM is about 6 hours slower, but depicts the same kind of set up -- low pressure of the La./Miss. Gulf coast with precip starting to ride over the CAD.
Here's the GFS by Thursday AM. Snow is falling with more precip on the way.

So, what can go wrong?

Well, if the low tracks even slightly more north and west, it could scour out our cold wedge of air more quickly and we could transition to rain sooner. Or, the low might divert south and give us lighter precip.

Also, the models have pulled back some on the total precip -- a couple days back more than 1 inch of precip was depicted (using 10-1 ratio, that would have meant 10 inches of snow). Now, we're in more of .4-.8 area of precip.

Still, that would be plenty if even half of that fell as snow.

So, here is the new breakdown:
No precipitation to speak of: 5 percent
All rain: 40 percent
Marginal winter event (dusting of snow/slight ice coating) 25 percent
Minor winter event (1-2 inches of snow/minor ice coating) 18 percent
Moderate winter event (3-5 inches of snow/moderate icing) 10 percent
Major winter event (6 or inches of snow/major icing) 2 percent

I actually dropped the "major" category, but the other "snow" categories go up. We're really getting in a window now where the changes in the modeling should be more subtle, so I feel pretty safe saying there will be SOME sort of system coming out of the Gulf late week.

Stay tuned!

Weather update: The big one or big rain?

Well, the beginning of the new pattern we talked about earlier this week is just a few days away and it might kick off with a bang.

Most model runs show a major Gulf of Mexico low forming early next week and moving northeast by midweek.

Let's look at how the latest (18z) run of the GFS depicts this storm:

Here is the wee hours Thursday morning. This map depicts surface temps (usually, the maps I show you refer to upper air temps. As you can see, the 32 line is to our south as precip moves in. Notice the high pressure to our north east -- recently these areas of high pressure have been oriented in a west/east manner. This one is more north-south which is better for cold-air damming to set up. To wit, you can see the little wind barb (if you zoom in) over the Charlotte region is showing a north/northeast wind.

Now for Thursday after dawn. Still at or below freezing at the surface (and in upper levels) as a 2-4 inches of snow falls.

Here's early Thursday afternoon. This is the upper air map which shows us JUST above freezing -- also borderline at the surface. BUT, you can see the heavy precip that is falling. If this were all snow, it would be an additional 3-6 inches, maybe more. Or it could be a little more snow, then some freezing rain. Or it could change to all rain.

IF it were all snow ... IF ... we'd be talking about 6-10 inches. BIG IF!

By Thursday night, the storm has pulled away.

Couple of things -- before this storm moves in, it will encounter very dry air, which will lead to what is called evaporational cooling. Basically, this means that as precip falls through dry air, the air is cooled. The "wet bulb" temperature is essentially the temperature to which the atmosphere will fall if saturated. So, if you had a temperature of 40F but because the air was so dry, the dewpoint was 10F. The wet bulb would be around 30F -- that means that the temperature would drop 10F once it started precipitating. Here is a web bulb calculator.

Computer models tend to underplay two things -- CAD (cold-air damming) and evaporational cooling. So, this is one time the models may trend MORE in our favor on temps.

And that is the ingredient which will be key here -- there is strong model agreement that there will be a significant low pressure system -- the question on temps will be the close call. The last few runs of the GFS have set up a rain-snow line somewhere along I-85.

Bottom line: This is BY FAR the best looking system since 2006 or earlier. Plus, there continue to be more chances downstream in the 12-day range and beyond.

Here's a breakdown on the Thursday event by percentages:

No precipation to speak of: 10 percent
All rain: 50 percent
Marginal winter event (dusting of snow/slight ice coating) 18 percent
Minor winter event (1-2 inches of snow/minor ice coating) 12 percent
Moderate winter event (3-5 inches of snow/moderate icing) 7 percent
Major winter event (6 or inches of snow/major icing) 3 percent

So, that's a 22 out of 100 chance of accumulating snow, which is pretty darned high for 5 days out.

Of course 78 percent chance of nothing or close to nothing.

Still, half (or more) of the fun is in the tracking!

Stay tuned!

All hail the pattern change

Very good news for winter weather lovers in the medium and long range -- all signs point to a major pattern change with sustained cold and a much higher chance of storms.

Almost all models point to a major cold outbreak across most of the central and eastern U.S. starting late next week into next weekend.

It all gets started in the Wed. night/early Thursday timeframe. As cold air begins to seep southward from the arctic regions, low pressure forms in the Gulf of Mexico. Will cold air arrive in time to make this a winter event? Way too soon to tell. Here is the storm depicted on the just-finished 12z GFS run.

More cold is ushered in the wake of this system, then another low tries to crank up in the Gulf. By the following week, cold is entrenched over the U.S.

One reason is the emergence of what pro mets call "blocking" over the Greenland area. This blocking "locks in" a cold pattern. If you've noticed, we've had what is called a "progressive" pattern thus far this winter -- it gets cold and warm, but nothing lasts very long.

With blocking, which can be measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation, cold air is continuously funneled south for weeks at a time, meaning one part of the N.C. snow equation is basically set -- then, all we need is lower pressure for a nice snow.

Check out this long-range map from the 6z GFS run. It's plenty cold here for snow, but notice the bitter cold on our doorstep -- this is all "fresh" cold, not the old stale airmasses out of which we have been hoping to squeeze a snowstorm.

Bottom line: GREAT pattern emerging -- first chance at a payoff is Wed. night/Thursday morning, with good shots every few days thereafter for the next couple of weeks.

BOLD PREDICTION: We will see accumulating snows in Cleveland County before the end of January!

Thursday weather update: So close, but yet .....

Well, there just isn't enough cold air to give us snow, it would appear, from this system.

But, if you check out this map, you'll see how close we are.

JUST as it gets cold enough for snow, the precip is moving out.

Might be a nice hit for the mountains.

Good news -- there are indications that we get into a much better overall pattern by late January and into February.

The overall pattern right now stinks so we have to have perfect timing to get snow.

If anything changes, I'll let you know.

Wed. noon weather update: Ehhhhhh.....

I hoped to offer better than 1 in 10 odds of snow Sunday, but I can't. In fact, I'm downgrading to 1 in 12. Still, we're hardly out of the running for some winter weather.

Here's the deal:

The latest runs of the GFS have the storm missing us to the south and east. Instead of low pressure hugging the Gulf Coast, then crossing the Fla. panhandle into South Ga. and off the S.C./Ga. coast, the low forms more south, crosses the Fla. peninsula and then offshore.

Here are a series of maps from the 12z run (for a definition of 12z see comments from my last post).

Late Saturday night Note the low pressure in the central gulf
Wee hours Sun. AM
Sunday morning Low over Fla. peninsula
Sunday afternoon Low moving offshore
Late Sunday night Low missing us to the east

You'll notice that the GFS is good on temperatures.

Now the good news (with some bad news mixed in).

The Euro (maps from the Euro are crude and not easy to link to) has a much better track for the low, but temps are not as good -- it would not get cold enough for snow until the system is moving away. Also, the Euro does not intensify the low until it is almost past us to the northeast, which means less precip.

So, there are ingredients in place and it's too soon to bail out, but we're definitely still talking about a low chance (although lately a low chance is better than NO chance).

Also, as a friendly reminder, I did not say it was going to snow, only that we had a system to track.

More later today or tonight.

Tuesday afternoon update: Hopes are high

The 12Z GFS run now has the storm suppressed to our south and east which, for me, is GREAT news, because the models have been terribly biased in the OPPOSITE direction all season -- that is, storms that looked good for us trended north and west as the event drew near.

These system never seem to get colder. Remember the big February snow we had a couple years back -- about 5 days out, models showed us getting zip, but eventually they trended north and we hit the jackpot.

More good news: The Euro is back on board, showing a nice little snow and a Miller A system. Interesting, we only see a minor event because the Euro doesn't really bomb out the low until it gets directly to our east -- by then the precip is starting to shut down. But I'd take 1-2 inches over a cold rain any day.

Finally the National Weather Service has taken notice -- here the current forecast for Cleveland County:

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT..MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.

So, it's fun to at least have something to track. Usually, the magic window is about 78 hours -- if you can get a storm still showing up on model at that time frame (so, in this case, Thursday morning), you've got a good shot at seeing snow.

Not changing my percentages now, but might bump them up tonight or tomorrow if model trends hold.

Sunday snow? Our best shot this winter

Had a family illness to tend to or I would have given more advance notice of our best shot at snow since 2005 (remember, 2006 was a rare, big, fat goose egg for the white stuff.)

This system is a classic looking "Miller A" storm -- which basically means it is a low pressure system which develops in the Gulf of Mexico and tracks across the Gulf coast into the southwest Atlantic, somewhere of the Ga/S.C. coasts. "Miller A" is named after meteorologist James Miller.

This is how we USED to get most of our storms and is a favorable track for snow.

Here is the latest run of the GFS:

In the wee hours of Sunday morning. Note the low forming in the north central gulf
Sunday at church time. Precip spreading our way. High pressure building in from the north.
Sunday afternoon. Low still getting its act together in Gulf as precip breaks out.
Wee hours Monday morning. Low in perfect spot off S.C. coast, temps dropping, snow falling.
Monday late morning. Low heading up coast, snow still falling

The recent (6z) GFS was the warmest of recent runs. For example, the previous (0z) run showed cold air moving in more quickly.

Compare this to the "Sunday at church time" 6z run above.

The European model lost the storm yesterday, but got it back overnight. Temps are still an issue.

Overall, there are some things going for this system we haven't had in a while -- mainly, that it's "Miller A."

What's NOT going for it is that the overall pattern is still not great for winter weather here -- we have to have great timing between features to get a snow rather than simply waiting for a good pattern to crank out a storm.

I have a feeling temperatures are going to be the main problem. The high pressure to our north during this storm will have to be at least as strong or maybe even stronger than what is being modeled for the snow to come through.

Right now, I'd give us a 2 out of 10 shot of measureable snow with 1 out of 10 of a major event (4 inches or more).

New models runs late this morning and early this afternoon, so watch for updates.

An unbelievable forecast

I promise, I'm not making this up. This is the forecast for an area near Reno, Nev. for today.

To save you the math, that's a range of 115 to 131 inches of snow -- possibly almost 11 FEET!!!!

I think they'd probably call off school in Cleveland County for a year if that happened!

Here's a web cam from Mammoth Lake.

And here is an incredible time lapse video of the snow piling up on a deck.

January weather outlook

BRRRRRRRRR!

Just in case you forgot what cold weather feels like, the next couple of days will be a cold slap in the face.

But, incredibly, not only will the cold be short-lived, but we will actually transition by next week to a very warm pattern, with temperatures by mid-week reaching the 60s and maybe even near or above 70 degrees!

Some medium range models continue the roller-coaster ride by mid-month, with a colder, stormier pattern taking hold. While highly unreliable during this time frame, the GFS model has persistently shown some sort of east coast storm system in the January 14-18 time frame.

So winter is here, winter will leave, but winter will come again!

Top 10 Carols: No. 1

No. 1: Once in Royal David's City.

This has always been one of my favorites, but it soared to the top of the charts last Christmas, when my 12-year-old daughter was asked to open both Christmas Eve services at our church by singing the first two verses of this carol a capella at the back of the church.

Talk about goosebumps!

She'll be reprising that contribution to the service again this year -- actually in about 90 minutes.

As the time for the star of Bethlehem draws nigh, I'd like to wish you all a joyous Christmas season.

Weather update: Not looking good

It's ALMOST time to write off Christmas snow in these parts.

The saying in weather is "the trend is your friend" -- that is, follow the trend to find out what is going to happen.

Well, the trend is for the Christmas storm to be sheared out -- to essentially have all its energy sucked up by the system behind it.

By the time THAT system is ready to roll through, our cold air is long gone -- which means we see rain the couple days after Christmas.

Is there time for this to change -- yes, but it's unlikely.

Sorry!

Chance of White Christmas: 1 in 200 (down from 1 in 40)
Reasoning: No model support for a storm, despite a favorable setup

Afternoon weather update: It's a puzzle

First, this would be a good time to remind you that I don't know what the heck I'm talking about. By that I mean, I have no meteorological training, other than what I've picked up. What I can do for you, though, is aggregate the opinions of the many real mets who frequent message boards and forum across the Internet and also illustrate through maps available on public web sites what is going on.

Having said that, there is much interest in the met community about this potential system for a couple of reasons:

1) It's a possible Christmas snow which is exciting to most everybody
2) There is higher than normal uncertainty with how the models are depicting the current pattern.

Right now the best way to describe the propsect of a Christmas snow is that there are pieces to the puzzle laying on a table -- the question is, will they get put together?

Right now, all of the pieces are shown in all of the models -- but none of them have the puzzle complete --- the Euro develops the storm too late, offshore, but has cold air in place. The UK model is better on precip but iffy on temps. And the GFS, well, it's just all over the place -- no storm at all one run, then too warm, then too suppressed.

There is an excellent chance we get a big fat nothing from this system or a cold rain, or a passing flurry.

But for now, the best I can tell you is this: We can't rule out a White Christmas. And to be able to say that on Dec. 20 is reason for optimism.

Still ...
Chances of White Christmas: 1 in 40 (down from 1 in 30)
Reasoning: Continued model uncertainty and the failure of any one model to latch on to a strong, snowy solution.

Quick Thursday AM update: Anything goes

We are now faced with an array of model solutions regarding a potential Christmas snow, which is neither unexpected or, necessarily bad. It would be unprecedented for models to pick up on an event like this 7 days out and show the same solution over and over until the storm hit.

Let's break it down.

The overnight Euro, delays the development of the storm until it has almost already passed us to the south and east. Then it pops a strong low off the coast, but probably too late for us to get much.

Last night's GFS showed a nice swath of precip -- around .75 inches liquid equivalent -- over our are, but weakened the high pressure to our north just enough to give us only a cold rain.

Then, this morning's GFS weakened the storm itself, shearing it out and giving us only flurries, drizzle or maybe a dusting of snow.

The main point, though, is that the players are in place for an event -- high pressure to our north and some sort of southern disturbance. Will everything be timed just right for snow? If I knew that, I'd be making a lot more money than I am right now.

But as long as those players are on the field, there is still a chance for a ... well, touchdown!

Remember, the potential event is still 5 full days away, so a LOT can happen with the models in that span.

I'll update again early this afternoon after the noon model runs are complete.

Chances of Christmas snow: 1 in 30 (flat from 1 in 30 yesterday afternoon)
Reasoning: General model agreement on some sort of even with basic pieces in place for a winter storm.

Afternoon weather update: Model madness

The two models that showed a snowstorm for Christmas Day are now world's apart from each other.

In one corner, the European model -- most trusted in the medium range (3-7 days). It backed up last nights run with another appealing solution today -- a major snow storm for the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic -- particularly eastern portions of the state, where a major snowfall is projected.

We would still get in on the act with 2-6 inches of snow, according to this run.

But before you dust off the sleds, the noon run of the GFS model has a very different, if not somewhat bizarre solution. Instead of tracking low pressure along the Gulf Coast and across southern Ga. off the S.C. coast, it takes the low in an unusual NNE direction from lower Mississippi up into Kentucky!

Obviously, this is no good for snow - we stay well on the warm side of the low. While it might bring some welcomed rain, White Christmas would have wait.

By the way, anybody know when the last measureable snowfall fell in Charlotte (more than a trace?).

60 years ago!

At the end of each post I will update my odds of the storm happening. As we get closer, if an event is more imminent, I will make those odds more detailed. And don't forget, for an e-mail alert on these columns, write to erikregans@shelbystar.com

Odds of measureable snowfall: 1 in 30 (down from 1 in 25)
Reasoning: Now only one model showing the storm

Two models show white Christmas!

Brace yourselves!

Abruptly, two runs of two different models popped up with a Christmas Day snowstorm for the Carolinas.

Here is a sequence of maps from the early morning run of the GFS model, the main model used by American forecasters:

Wee hours Christmas morning
Dawn Christmas morning
Early Christmas afternoon
Christmas night

That's about 1 inch of liquid precip, which would equate to 10 inches of snow.

As you can see, temps are marginal, but would be mostly or all snow to the N.C./S.C. line.

The European model -- which most consider the best medium range model -- shows a slightly later developing system that doesn't really become potent until it gets to our east -- bringing us much less precip, but with colder temps -- still, some sort of wintry precip. This isn't a bad thing, necessarily, because the model trends this year have been to bring systems north and west as the event draws nearer.

Caveats:
1) This is not in a model "sweet spot" -- 7 days out is still a LONG way meteorologically and MUCH could change (in fact, one could argue that the last thing you want 7 days out is to see a storm for your area)
2) The models have not been performing well in the medium range in the last few weeks. The big storm for the interior northeast last week was originally projected to pass hundreds of miles south and east of where it eventually tracked
3) It never snows on Christmas.

I would give this a 1 in 25 chance of verifying, but that's better than 0 out of 25, right? It will be fun to track over the coming days.

Now, a couple of things -- if you would like to receive e-mail alerts ON JUST WINTER WEATHER, I will be offering that for free. So, you'll receive an e-mail whenever I make a signficant update to my blog that is weather related. If you would like this, please e-mail our Webmaster Erik Regans at erikregans@shelbystar.com. Put WEATHER UPDATES in the extent line.

Stay tuned!

Friday winter weather threat?

The chances for a White Christmas are slim and none (again) this year, but in the shorter term, one of the short range models has a very near miss for us that bears watching.

Check out these two model maps from the NAM model run of this afternoon:

For the wee hours Friday morning.
For around dawn Friday morning.
For Friday afternoon.

As you can see the precip just brushes our area and the air is JUST cold enough to support some sort of light winter mix of some kind.

If those two trended closer together, we could see a minor winter event.

There isn't much other model support for this and I'd say the odds are very low, but it's at least worth tracking.

Top 10 Carols: No. 2

No. 2: Silent Night

The top 2 on the list are both personal for me.

My strongest memory from childhood when it comes to the Christmas Eve service is the lights being doused after communion and the congregation singing silent night by candlelight.

It still gives me chills to think about it.

The current-day tune was written by Franz Gruber with words by Josef Morh, a German priest. Even in America, the German version "Stille Nacht" is sung.

The song was sung simultaneously in English and German by troops during the Christmas truce of 1914, as it was one of the few carols that soldiers on both sides of the front line knew.

Here is version of the song in German as sung by a boys choir.

Anybody want to guess what No. 1 is? You might be surprised!

The list so far:
No. 2: Silent Night
No. 3: O Come all ye Faithful
No. 4: Hark, the Herald Angels Sing
No. 5: Angels we have heard on high
No. 6: Some children see him
No. 7: O come o come emmanuel
No. 8: In the bleak midwinter
No. 9: Lo, how a rose e'er blooming
No. 10: Go tell it on the mountain

Top 10 Carols: No. 3

No. 3: O Come all ye Faithful

This famous hymn is also known by its Latin name "Adeste Fideles." As is the case with many carols, the origin is unclear. The first time the current lyrics and hymn are known to have been paired together is the middle 18th century.

Some believe the hymn has Portuguese origins, although that is unclear.

Whatever the case, this is often the processional or recessional hymn at many Christmas Eve services.

Here's a great version by American Idol runner up Katherine McPhee.

Only 2 to go! Any guesses????

No. 3: O Come all ye Faithful
No. 4: Hark, the Herald Angels Sing
No. 5: Angels we have heard on high
No. 6: Some children see him
No. 7: O come o come emmanuel
No. 8: In the bleak midwinter
No. 9: Lo, how a rose e'er blooming
No. 10: Go tell it on the mountain

Top 10 Carols: No. 4

No. 4: Hark, the Herald Angels Sing

Now we're getting to the big boys -- the hymns that if they aren't listed in the Christmas Eve church bulletin, you feel like you were cheated.

Hark the herald angels sing was written by John Wesley's brother Charles, according to Wikipedia.

I was interested to learn that Wesley at one point envisioned the lyrics to be sung to the tune of the Easter hymn "Christ the Lord is risen today" If that's the same as the modern hymn "Jesus Christ is Risen Today," then I tried to match the lyrics of "Hark" to that tune and it works!

The tune most often used today was derived from a Mendelssohn arrangement in the 19th century.

I was also interested to find out that "Hark" is the recessional hymn for the annual Service of Nine Lessons and Carols in King's College Chapel, Cambridge.

I graduated from the University of the South in Sewanee, an Episcopal school which holds a very close version of Lessons and Carols every December.

The list so far:
No. 4: Hark, the Herald Angels Sing
No. 5: Angels we have heard on high
No. 6: Some children see him
No. 7: O come o come emmanuel
No. 8: In the bleak midwinter
No. 9: Lo, how a rose e'er blooming
No. 10: Go tell it on the mountain

Top 10 Carols: No. 5 (also, weather update)

First, on the weather, the weekend storm will still be big for folks in the northeast, but there is a double whammy of bad news for us -- first, no snow. Second, the chances of a good soaking rain are also lower -- we may get caught in a "dry slot" and could see just some light rain, rather than the heavy event we need. Also, a hint of some storminess in about 10-12 days (!!!!), but too soon to tell on that.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled countdown.

No. 5: Angels we have heard on high

Also, simply known as "Gloria," the words to this song are based on a French carol, Les Anges dans nos Campagnes (literally, The Angels in our Countryside).

Obviously, the carol is known for the melodic, drawn out "Gloria," chorus.

For me, this is one of the biggies often sung on Christmas Eve.

Here is a version by Josh Groban, who my co-worker Donna Roddy says is the bomb.

The list so far:
No. 5: Angels we have heard on high
No. 6: Some children see him
No. 7: O come o come emmanuel
No. 8: In the bleak midwinter
No. 9: Lo, how a rose e'er blooming
No. 10: Go tell it on the mountain

Top 10 Carols: No. 6

No. 6: Some children see him

This may be the most obscure song on the list. I first heard it on James Taylor's Christmas album released in the last couple of years.

It is a carol about the vision of Jesus by different races of children.

It ends with this stanza:

The children in each different place
will see the baby Jesus' face
like theirs, but bright with heavenly grace,
and filled with holy light.
O lay aside each earthly thing
and with thy heart as offering,
come worship now the infant King.'
Tis love that's born tonight!

Upon further research, however, I came upon a fascinating story.

The song was written by Alfred Burt, part of a family of Episcopal priests. The Burts began a tradition of sending out Christmas Cards with originally composed carols included. Here is the collection ("Some children see him" is from 1951).

Here is a You Tube version of the song by Kenny Loggins.

The list so far:

No. 6: Some children see him
No. 7: O come o come emmanuel
No. 8: In the bleak midwinter
No. 9: Lo, how a rose e'er blooming
No. 10: Go tell it on the mountain

Weekend storm update

Well, for one shining moment, this weekend looked like "the big one." Check out yesterday afternoon's run of the GFS.

That's a big ice to snow event -- almost two inches of liquid -- if all snow, it would be measured in feet, not inches

But alas, that was simply the start of a strong trend, moving the system north with every model run -- now, the GFS and the European model show us with all rain.

Is there time for a trend back to the south? Yes, but it usually doesn't work that way -- our storms almost always trend north to get us, not south.

Still, I'll keep an eye on it.

Top 10 Carols: No. 7

No. 7: O come, O come Emmanuel

Technically, this is an advent hymn, but we seem to skip over Advent for Christmas these days anyway, so what the heck.

According to Wikipedia, it is unclear from what period this hymn and its lyrics originate - perhaps as far back as the 8th century.

I was intrigued by this passage on Wikipedia:

"Performance variations exist today over the rhythm of the music. Many performances pause on the last syllable of "Emmanuel", in both the verse and the chorus, however often performances omit these pauses to give a greater sense of understanding to the chorus "Rejoice, rejoice, Emmanuel shall come to thee O Israel". If a pause is included, the meaning is lost as an audible comma is heard between "Emmanuel" and "shall come to thee..."."

I've always noticed this about the song -- I prefer to the pause NOT to be used in the chorus but I DO like it used in the verses.

Couldn't find much on-line. Here is a You Tube version by Whitney Houston that's not bad -- although the photographic slide show is superfluous.

The list so far:

No. 10: Go tell it on the mountain
No. 9: Lo, how a rose e'er blooming
No. 8: In the bleak midwinter
No. 7: O come, O come Emmanuel

First legit snow threat

As some of you may know, I started a paid e-mail column on winter weather a couple years back.

It hasn't snowed since.

So, instead of taking people's money for nothing, I'm going to provide that service for free on this blog until there is evidence it will snow again here ... ever.

My column generally gives a heads up to potential winter weather events and summarizes the views of meteorologists (I'm certainly not one) who write an analyze on various web sites.

As you might have read from an earlier column, the OVERALL patterns this year is very hostile to snow. But, just like we can NOT see snow from a great pattern, we can also get a good snow even from a lousy pattern, if everything comes together.

The last couple runs of a computer model called the GFS does just that.

This is the model's forecast map for next Saturday afternoon. And here is the map for Sunday evening. If it verified, that's a 1-3 inch snow. And here is the European model from a similar time frame -- warmer, but wetter.

Now, 7 days off is forever and this will change a million times, but at least it's something to track, which is more than we've had thus far this season.

Stay tuned!

Top 10 Carols: No. 8

No. 8 is: "In the bleak midwinter."

Ironically, a friend of mine e-mail me yesterday that he was following the countdown and offered that James Taylor's version of "In the bleak midwinter" was particularly good. I agree and have it on I-tunes.

The last verse of the song is particularly moving:
What can I give Him, poor as I am?
If I were a shepherd, I would bring a lamb;
If I were a Wise Man, I would do my part;
Yet what I can I give Him: give my heart.

I found this version of the song on You Tube, sung by the Lichefield Cathedral Choir.

So far:
No. 10: Go tell it on the mountain
No. 9: Lo, how a rose e'er blooming
No. 8: In the bleak midwinter

Top 10 Carols: No. 9

Coming in at No. 9, is the hauntingly beautiful "Lo how a rose e'er blooming"

If you aren't familiar with it, here is a version (press "play") by low brass instruments.

Here are the lyrics:
Lo, how a Rose e'er blooming from tender stem hath sprung,
Of Jesse's lineage coming, as saints of old have sung.
It came, a flow'ret bright, amid the cold of winter,when half-spent was the night.

Isaiah t'was foretold it, the Rose I have in mind.
With Mary we behold it, the virgin mother kind.
To show God's love aright, she bore to us a Savior,when half-spent was the night.

Flower, whose fragrance tender with sweetness fills the air,
dispel in glorious splendor the darkness everywhere.
True man, yet very God, from sin and death he saves us,and lightens every load.

It's certainly not as cheery a tune as some standbys, but truly a mesmerizing piece of music.

So far:
No. 10: Go tell it on the mountain
No. 9: Lo how a rose e'er blooming
No. 8: Friday

Skip's Top 10 Christmas carols -- today, No. 10

For the next 10 days, I will regale you with my top 10 Christmas carols. I'm trying to hold this list to actual carols (so, the Grinch theme and Grandma got runover by a Raindeer will not be on the list).

You may be surprised by a couple of these and I'm sure everybody will have a different order.

As the series goes on, feel free to comment on carols you do or don't like.


No. 10: "Go tell it on the mountain"

I like this carol mainly because it's uplifting and asks us to participate in sharing the Nativity rather than simply experiencing it ourselves.

According to Wikipedia, this was orginally an African-American spiritual.

Winter outlook

In a word: Yuck!

If you don't like snow, then the winter of 2007-08 is shaping up to be right up your alley.

We are in what is being called a "moderate" La Nina event. La Nina and El Nino refer to ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Moderate to strong La Ninas are notoriously bad for winter weather in the east, especially the southeast.

The general pattern for us during this types of winters is warm and dry. Plus, the current drought tends to enhance that tendancy. A stubborn ridge of high pressure over the southeast or the southeastern Atlantic tends to send storms through the middle of the country rather than up the east coast.

This means any cold air we see is only a glancing blow.

Anyway, modeling looks benign through mid- to late-December.

Only ray of hope: There is some recent data that shows the La Nina might be weakening. Weak La Ninas teleconnect much better to a colder, stormier winter for us, so it's something to keep an eye on.

So, overall, it won't be mild every day, but cold air intrusions should be limited in severity and duration.

While even in the worst pattern we can still see things come together for snow, it looks like our best chances will be later in the season.

Not a pretty picture for snow lovers, but it's the cold (?) hard truth!

Rich richer? Poor poorer?

How many times have you heard a Democratic candidate for president claim the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer?

It's just not true, as this column by Thomas Sowell explains.

Yet, when the national media covers these debates and speeches and such, these untruths will go unchallenged and unquestioned.

Parents of UNC students -- beware

This article in this month's Carolina Journal paints a scary picture of the kind of indoctrination being practice by far too many college professors.

Also, read how this conservative UNC student found her grades suddenly improved when she started espousing anti-conservative rhetoric.

It's a shame that the open-mindedness and inclusiveness that used to be a halmark of liberalism is being replaced by a type of brainwashing and intolerance that is really just plan scary.

From bogus "hate" speech codes (which are really just designed to suppress other-than-far-left-wing thought) to professors (see link further down in this blog) who essentially espouse that all white men are racist, college campuses have become, astonishingly, havens for the worst kind of intolerance in America.

The far left -- the new far right.

John "Give me a break!" Stossel on "global warming"

Great column by John Stossel of ABC's 20/20 on climate change.

Key points:
1) Simply saying the "debate is over" on the causes and extent of global warming doesn't make it so
2) Just because the earth is warming doesn't mean humans caused it or that it is even a bad thing
3) There is zero reason to believe the government is capable of doing anything to help this situation
4) Humans ability to REVERSE global warming is in serious doubt.

Have a kid in college?

Want him or her to grow up something other than a Marxist?

Disagree that all white males are racist?

Then read this.

Star Car the talk of the trades

The Star Car is receiving plenty of attention from newspaper/Web site trade publications.

Here are some links:

Editor and Publisher
IFRA Newsplex blog
The "Indiepub" blog
Geekedabout.com, a technology blog
Blogue MediaBiz, a French Web site (hope they're not trashing us and I just don't know the language)

Shelby attorney quoted story on Irish Business web site

I received a Google News alert e-mail that referred to an Irish business Web site.

Low and behold it's Shelby attorney O. Max Gardner III being quoted in the story.

Small world, getting smaller.

Environmentalist propaganda (redundancy?) on Duke Power plant

An e-mail is making its way around the county regarding Duke Power's new coal-fired power plant which is working its way through the regulatory process.

One of the cruxes of the e-mail is that the new plant will increase mercury emissions which is going to adversely impact the health of women and babies. In fact, the name of the slide show is:
"The Cliffside Coal-Fired Power Plant Expansion Proposed by Duke Energy Will Have a Detrimental Effect on the Environment and Public Health of North Carolina"

There is one problem with the title when it comes to public health. Nobody knows if it's true.

Here is a summary of the sequence of assertions made in the power point -- see if you can find what's missing.

1) Coal plants burn mercury -- 40 percent of U.S. mercury emissions come from these facilities.
2) Mercury ends up in water
3) Fish, living the water, ingest the mercury
4) Some N.C. fish have mercury
5) People eat fish
6) High levels of mercury in fetuses and children can be harmful
7) Mercury poisoning in adults can cause major health problems
8) An estimated 8 percent of child-bearing-age women in the U.S. have unsafe levels of mercury, according to an EPA researcher.
9) The amount of mercury emitted by the new plant will result in an increase of total mercury emissions.


Did you find what's missing?

Maybe asking these three questions of the environmentalists would help:
1) Please point to one documented case -- not an estimate, projection or guess, a documented case -- in North Carolina where a child suffered health problems because of mercury poisoning from a coal-fired power plant.
2) Please point to the documented study that shows that the mercury found in area fish or water can be directly tied to emissions from coal-fired power plants.
3) Isn't it true that the "unsafe" level of mercury concentration that 8 percent of women who are childbearing age allegedly carry is actually 10 times lower than the minimum safe levels mentioned in the exact same EPA study?

What missing is this -- there is no direct evidence that mercury from power plants adversely affects anybody's health. None. Zip. Zero.

Yes, coal plants emit mercury. Yes, mercury CAN be bad for you (but in much larger quantities than anyone is every likely to consume).

No, we don't know where the mercury comes from that fish (and then humans) ingest.

Remember, 60 percent of mercury comes emissions in the U.S. come from other sources. From the state's health department web site: "Mercury is also released into the air, water and land when fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) are burned; when municipal solid waste or medical waste is incinerated; during forest fires; and during some manufacturing processes."

AND, mercury also exists naturally: "Mercury is a metal that occurs naturally at low levels in rock, soil and water throughout North Carolina."

Even if you believe, however, that the mercury comes from these plants, the science on what levels of mercury is actually harmful is flimsy.

This article from the Cato Institute addresses that point and puts in perspective these types of scare tactics. Please take the time to read it.

Here's the cold hard reality -- there are a lot of good, well-intentioned people who care deeply about clean air and clean water and healthy children.

Then there are the fringe, radical environmentalists who are for those things that we are all for, but who are truly fueled by a hatred for capitalism, industry and progress. They will distort and contrive and deceive and, mostly, scare people into opposing things that really bring no danger at all and all sorts of benefit (do you realize how many people will be employed in building this facility and what it will do to our county's tax base when it is finished -- do environmentalists even think about the number of people who will be able afford, say, better pre-natal care for their children, providing infinitely more benefits than any threat the plant poses from mercury, because of this plant).

I also love how these e-mail are sent out the day of (in this case) or the day before some deadline. Much like Al Gore and "global warming" they don't want to have a debate, they simply want to scare people into acting before they've thought through the issue.

Gore likes to intimidate those who would dare disagree with his apocalyptic view of global warming by saying: "The issue is settled."

He doesn't scare me. And neither does this power plant.

Greatest play in college football history

You think "The Play" by Cal was great?

You think Boise St. over Oklahoma last year was great?

Doug Flutie vs. Miami?

Georgia's Lindsey Scott vs. Florida? ("Run Linsdey!")

LSU's Bluegrass Miracle?

They are ALL great, but not the greatest.

Here it is -- Trinity vs. Milsaps.

Unbelievable!!!!!!!!!!

Check out this radar (time sensitive, 1:45 p.m.)

Here is the link to a radar scroll.

Notice the "training" of precip right up into Cleveland County. We might hit the jackpot from this rain system.

Major rains forecast through weekend

This is a precipitation forecast map for the period Tuesday morning until Sunday morning. You can also find this map here at the National Weather Service's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Yes, it's true, NWS forecasters say we will receive between 3 and 6 inches of rain during the next five days. Sounds great, but I'll believe it when I see it!!!

Know anybody who is "work hot?"

Check out this glossary of new teen slang terms from the Boston Globe.

My favorites:

Flossin': Showing off.
Check your vitals: To do a sweep of e-mail and other essential websites.
Money: cabbage, chalupas, cheddar, Gouda, paper, Kraft singles (for dollar bills).
Work hot: A person who may or may not be attractive, but is the best-looking person at your workplace.

Mom's overture

Had this You Tube clip e-mailed to me.

The lyrics ring pretty true ......

Think universal health care is a good thing?

You won't if you do any research. This column by 20/20's John Stossel shines a light on the "great" systems in Canada and England that folks like Michael Moore, John Edwards and Hillary Clinton want to bring to America.

Why anybody would think the government could do a better job with health care than the private sector is beyond me.

True drought relief?

If you buy this map from the National Weather Service, Friday could be a gloriously wet, rainy day. The remnants of surprise, quick-developing Hurricane Humberto is to "blame." Cross your fingers!

Awesome view

This is a late afternoon satellite picture of Dean.

Should be Category 4 soon -- still headed for Yucatan and/or Texas.

Very powerful -- somebody's going to get hurt .... bad.

Dean getting his act together

Hurricane Dean is strengthening quickly.

If you have ANY interests in the Caribbean over the next few days OR in Cancun/Yucatan peninsula of Mexico into next week OR northern Mexico/Southern Texas and the entire western Gulf Coast late next week.

Here are the latest computer models -- of note is the GFDL track (in blue), which goes "through the goalpoast" into the Gulf of Mexico.

Also of note, most models show that Dean will become an extremely powerful hurricane. Some show it itensifying such that the surface pressure drops below 900 mb, which would be Katrina-esque.

There is nothing other than land to weaken this storm -- upper level conditions are perfect for strengthening and it is moving through bath-water warm seas so whereever first landfall is .......

Nifong's final disgrace: The dog ate my law license.

This is really too bad to be true.

Check it out.

Dean alert!

Hurricane forecasters are loathe to predict where storms may go beyond 3-5 days, but as a weather fanatic, I can tell you that there is strong model consensus that Tropical Storm Dean will plow through our just north of the Caribbean and either strike the Southeast Coast or enter the Gulf Of Mexico. Here is the 12z run of the GFS model which shows Dean emerging into the Gulf by Tuesday of next week. Other models shows the storm hitting Florida, then re-emerging into the Gulf. The southernmost projections shows the storm perhaps grazing the Yucatan and then striking Texas.

Here is an array of model runs, but only out to 5 days.

Bottom line: If you have travel plans in the Caribbean this weekend, you should watch Dean like a hawk.

And if you have travel plans anywhere on the east coast or Gulf coast the following week into the weekend of Aug. 24, you should keep a wary eye on the tropics.

The intelligentsia exposed

In some of my rantings against the global warming propaganda machine, I've argued that the hysteria generated on this topic is a product of the hard-left academia-types who will say or do anything to further their agenda of undermining capitalism and the free market system.

Left-wingers (and others) often scoff at this, saying "how much power do a bunch of professors really have?" and "there are tons of conservatives on college campuses."

This study absolutely should silence those scoffers.

As it turns out, college professors and others in the education field have contributed more money to federal politics than the oil industry and drugmakers, with a nearly unanimous goal of putting a Democrat in the White House.

These professors and such wield tremendous power and are unabashedly using to to advance a far-left agenda.

As a colleague of mine asked: You have to wonder while reading this why the heck schools/nonprofit institutions, some of which get state tax dollars, are donating to any political candidate.

Driving while intexticated

This new type of "DWI" is claiming lives across the country. Here is a story about a fatal crash in New York that may have been a result of this new phenomenon -- young people trying to read and answer text messages as they drive.

Here is a story a Minneapolis TV station did on this subject.

If you are the parent of a text-messaging teen (or if are one yourself), you should address this TODAY.

Can't make Tony and Eva's wedding?

Here is the next best thing ...... courtesy of a San Antonio newspaper.

Yuck!

This is one of those videos that will probably be viewed a gazillion times -- a news report on a very unique way to serve fish.

NO THANKS!

Fascinating opinion

This opinion from the N.C. Court of Appeals is interesting in two respects. First, because it provides new protection for the media when it comes to court-imposed gag orders.

But the really juicy part is the tiff between the trial court and the appeals court. In the end, the appeals court issued a rare "admonishment" of the trial court for this comments.

Star featured on UK Web site

We probably haven't done a good enough job "tooting our horn" over the press The Star has received nationally and internationally over our Web site and print product innovations.

Here is a story from a journalism site in England on our work.

Global warming brainwashing ...

As many of you know, I have serious concerns about the validity of some of the "science" on global warming.

But what REALLY concerns me is the shameless indoctrination on the subject.

To wit, here is a story from Canada on the blatant brainwashing being perpetrated by the education establishment there.

Not good at all.

Dry stretch

As you can see by this forecast, it will be bone dry in our area for at least the next 8 days.

Recent rains have helped, but we're still behind.....

Attn: Shelby Middle School carpoolers

Many mornings, I have the morning carpool for my children and others at Shelby Middle School. These are sixth-graders, so we go past the school, take a right and drop the children off there.

Sometimes, the line stretches around the corner, causing a small delay of 1-2 minutes.

It's amazing to me, though, to see parents simply drive around this line, bypassing those who are waiting their turn, and then knife in at the front.

When I was a kid, we called that cutting in line!

Why is this any different?

Shelby Middle parents, help me out -- what am I missing?!?!?

Remembering John Cline

It was probably four years ago, on the sidewalk in front of Ichabod's restaurant in Shelby.
Our family was together and we ran into John Cline, longtime member of the Cleveland County Sanitary District.

My wife Dina had been the district's lawyer some years back and that's how I had first gotten to know John. It was a friendship that blossomed. He came by often to visit me at The Star. More on those priceless times later.

On this day, though, in uptown Shelby, something unusual happened. My youngest son Will was just a toddler, which meant he was shy and even downright frightened of strangers. Bless his heart, but John Cline wasn't exactly the kind of person you'd expect to break through that type of fear -- well into his 80s with a weathered face and sharp features.

But he gave it a shot. Smiling and cooing with Will as Dina held him and we all talked.

Then it happened. Little arms that had clutched so tightly to mommy suddenly loosened that grip, then let go, then reached out for John. As our jaws dropped, his countenance brightened in a way words can't describe. He held Will like he would his own son. We talked some more and eventually, but reluctantly, he handed Will back to his mommy and we all went our ways.

"John Cline is here to see you"
If I'm being totally honest, there were a few times those weren't necessarily the words I wanted to hear. There is no one in this county that came to see me more often than John and sometimes those calls came in the middle of breaking news or just minutes before an important meeting.

Yet, I could never say no to a John visit. And no matter how busy, when our time was through, I was richer for the visit.

John cared about a lot of things and a lot of people. He was a rock-ribbed Republican. I tried to Google up the origin of the term "rock-ribbed Republican." No luck. Maybe it was invented by or for John. His involvement in party politics at the highest levels was a source of great pride.

He cared deeply about the upper end of Cleveland County. Some of that love translated to resentment of "the city," meaning Shelby. Hearing his views helped me gain perspective on that endless debate which rages anywhere rural and urban cultures cross.

John treasured his service on the sanitary district board. His life was consumed by the current efforts to bring a reservoir to Upper Cleveland. I (and undoubtedly many others) would teasingly start out conversations with John: "So, how's it coming on the new John Cline Lake?" He would wave off the title, but the strong glint in his eye would reveal his love affair with the project and his investment in its success. He and district manager Butch Smith were always working on some angle to try and speed up the reservoir process. He could barely contain his impatience with the federal red tape that brought the process to a crawl.

And I can't leave out an important passion of John's -- The Star. He devoured the paper daily. Often, he would call to commend me on an editorial view or story. He was always lobbying -- in John's ever-so-effective and courteous way -- for more coverage of the district. He would do it like this: "Skip, you think we can get a reporter up to our next meeting. It's going to be real important." How could I say no?

The hat
John was a figure. Not in the sense of "public figure" but in the sense of having a true presence. His hat was as much a fixture on his head as the one worn by legendary Alabama Coach Paul "Bear" Bryant. Yet, he would remove the hat when he came and sat in my office, the ultimate display of courtesy and respect. I hope that hat finds its way into the formal remembrance of John.

Even as a Republican in a Democratic county, he was impossible not to like. At Chamber meetings, when John was introduced, he always elicited smiles from the group. He was just a nice man, always bringing me books of interest and offering me produce and such.

John's service in World War II was an integral part of who he was. Often he would say to me "I don't like to talk about that very much," when his service would come up in conversation. When something 60 years past is too painful for a man like John Cline to talk about, it must have been worse than anything I could imagine.

And finally, John's faith was his source of all this goodness. He was deeply involved in his church, often telling me about transitions to new pastors and such. John and I also talked occasionally of his family, but I will leave those observations to those closer to his kin.

Farewell
And so, our visits at The Star would end. John would get up and offer a firm handshake. Then, without fail, he would turn to me and smile and say "How's that Will doin'?" Four years later, and the World War II veteran well into his 80s remembered that day he held my toddler as freshly as if it had happened a few minutes prior. He would ask for the latest picture of Will and marveled at the speed at which he had grown.

Only at the word of his passing do I finally get it.

My little Will sensed what so many of us had felt over the years -- John Cline was just somebody you enjoyed being close to.

Farewell GOP

Terrific column by my colleague Steve Greenhut at the Orange County Register. For Steve, it appears, it's no longer good enough to say "Got to stick with those Republicans because they're at least better than Democrats."

These days, you can barely tell the two apart.

Duke "scandal" post mortem

I wrote this article way back in April about the use of the word "scandal."

Funny how things turn out....

Is global warming even bad?

This is a terrific article from Newsweek. The idea that global warming is a bad thing is based on the arrogant assumption that our current-day temperatures are ideal. Given the ever-changing nature of the earth's climate, this is an absurd assumption which this column does an excellent job of debunking.

Compelling read from Iraq

I know there's lots of talk about not enough "good news" from Iraq, but stories like this from today's New York Times make those complaints ring hollow -- you wont find any opinion or slant in this article, just strong narrative describing horrific conditions. Very sad.

My dad, the writer

As this story in The (Lakeland Fla.) Ledger details, my father has been published.

Now, if everyone who reads this blog will just go out and buy 100 copies each .....

More global warming common sense

This devastating column by Thomas Sowell is a must read if you have fallen for the radical environmentalist/far left campus elitists' propaganda on global warming.

Folks, these people have an agenda and aren't going to let the facts get in the way of their thesis.

Star featured in Washington Post

I think our move away from the paragraph was a little oversold, but otherwise, it's flattering to be mentioned in a major publication such as this.

Brenda Sue, cont.

Megan Ward was interviewed by a local radio station on the Brenda Sue case. You can check it out on www.shelbystar.com. Click on the "podcast" tab in the "interactive features" section.

Brenda Sue

Hard to believe how this story has captured the imagination of the community. I hope everyone read our editorial on this case earlier in the week.

I've had a few calls complaining that we have "convicted" Mr. Price in this case. Of course, we have not done that, but I understand how the strong play we've given the story might leave that impression.

No way getting around it, though, this is one of the biggest arrests in the county's history.

If you have any question or comments on our coverage, leave them here or e-mail me at skipfoster@shelbystar.com

Global warming caused by man?

You may think this is no longer a question, but a fact.

Yet, the intelligensia has become so left-lurching on college campuses (where most so-called research is currently conducted) that I am dubious of any claims generated from this arena.

Which is why when I stumbled on this column today, I wasn't surprised one bit.

Major winter storm Thursday

Looks like we're going to get hit pretty hard Thursday.


Best guess:
2-3 inches of snow
.25-.4 inches of ice on top.

That should be enough to bring down some trees, as well as the obvious travel problems.

The forecast could turn snowier if temps don't start climbing faster in what's left of this afternoon.

Here is a nice Google map plotting temps. As of this writing (1:30 p.m.) Shelby's airport is at 35F with Crest Middle reporting 33F. The high today was supposed to be 40.