Thursday, January 17, 2008

7:50 a.m. update: This event is over; next one looms

Well, after my last post at 1:45 a.m. I took one last walk outside and darned if it didn't change to sleet just as I headed back inside. So, I wasn't surprised to see basically the same picture out my window when I woke up as when I went to bed.

The event looks to be over. Temps are at or above freezing, as best I can tell, in and around Cleveland County.

Looks like snow amounts ranged from 1-2 inches in Cleveland County. Rutherford County reported 3 inches with 4-6 in some mountain locations. I haven't gotten outside to check on the ice coating, but looking out my window, I don't see any trees dramatically bent over or branches on the ground.

The 1-2 was squarely in the middle of my "minor event" range in which I had the largest percentage chance of happening.

Now, on to Saturday. Unlike the relative model consistency we had with this storm, there is wide divergance just 54 hours on Storm No. 2. The meteogram attached to this post is from the 6z NAM.

Check out the second area of precip (on the right). As you can see 850 temps are solidly below freezing and we are AT freezing at the surface -- ALL SNOW. If taken literally, we're talking 6-8 inches.

Now, remember, the NAM overestimated the precip on our current system.

The GFS, on the other hand, misses us almost completely to the east. It is just as "wet" as the NAM, but that moisture is not over us. As a result, we get just a dusting of snow.

BUT, our old friend the EURO is solidly in the Saturday storm camp, spitting out a 2-8 storm across the region. There is also support from the Canadian and UK models.

So, VERY interesting and actually better POTENTIAL than this current storm, for which temperatures was always going to be an issue (and they still could be for the next storm, but there looks to be more leeway there).
Feel free to post your final observations and thoughts in this thread -- I'll update later today on the Saturday storm.


Anonymous said...

Headed to the NC Mtns. this weekend. Will the Sat. event hit there or will it track to far east?

Skip Foster said...

Need to study it more closely, but the mountains would be in the best shape temps wise-- question is, what is GFS up to with the southeast precip field?

Anonymous said...

Do you think the stuff outside will refreaze tonight and what bout school tommorrow???

snow blog said...

I beleive we probably had about 2 inches here and then the ice has packed it down a bit, but all of the grassy surfaces are covered now. I got back up at 2:30 AM to check and saw that it had arlready turned to sleet so I knew then that it was over for the snow too.
I'm hopeful for the next one.

Skip Foster said...

I would guess we would have snow tomorrow in at least the southern zones.

Skip Foster said...

I mean "school" tomorrow. LOL. Not enough sleep.

Anonymous said...

Sorry folks but as I was right abouth this storm there is no next storm. Minimal precip and temps probably warm enough for just a little rain. When we have a low that tkes a direct I-85 route and a High pressure already in place with cold air top to bottom. Then we will have a snow event. Big snows( 6" + ) or more normally happen every 5-10 years. Examples: The big snow in '88, Blizzard of '93 and so on.

paige said...

We ended up with 2 good inches on our little piece of Lawndale. I'll be right there with ya this weekend, hoping for more. Thanks again, Skip!