The NAM has been our friend in the leadup this storm. It's the one that first latched on to the storm and it's the model that has kept the highest precip totals over the past few days.
Tonight, after all that flirting, it dumped us.
The 0z NAM lurched south taking most of its precip with it. Instead of a 4-6 inch snow, it leaves us with a paltry .25 inches of precip -- barely enough for an inch, maybe 2 of snow. This puts it squarely in the GFS camp and means the chances of a big snow -- as I have feared all day -- have greatly diminished.
Here is the 0z NAM precip map for the storm.
Here's the same map, but from the 18z NAM.
While from afar the differences may seem subtle, if you zoom in, you see that the dark blue area of precip (.5 or higher) that brushed the southeast corner of Cleveland County has retreated 80 miles to the southeast (we were hoping for an 80 mile move THE OTHER WAY).
Now, there is model agreement that this is a very minor event for us. Worse yet, any type of further move east could result in just a dusting of snow or no snow at all.
Is there hope?
A glimmer or two. First, temps are great. There may be a quick initial period of rain, but it will quickly and permanently be cold enough for snow. Second, radar trends from the Gulf Coast still aren't matching up with the models' short term forecasts. It could be simply a complex system that the models are not and will not correctly forecast -- it has happened before. But that's hoping, not forecasting.
I would now place heavy emphasis on a marginal to minor event from a dusting to 1 inch, possibly 2.
Maybe the 0z GFS will do the same flip flop the other way, but this one is looking like a very near and very frustrating miss.