A few good signs.
1) The 18z NAM inched west. It now gives us .5 inches of precip again -- probably a 2-4 inch snow. 18z GFS out later this afternoon -- it will REALLY tell the tale.
2) Radar trends are good. None of the models projected precipitation making it north of the La./Ark. border, which has obviously happened -- for us it's all about north trends with precip. You can follow this all night
3) The EURO -- which had not been our friend for this entire storm -- made a late jump north this afternoon. The very short term is hardly this model's specialty, but we'll take any trend we can get.
4) WBTV -- a weather operation which I greatly respect -- is calling for 4-6 inches in our area. Frankly, I can't believe they did that and I don't think that will verify, but it shows that some pros have confidence in the upper end of the forecast.
The new weather service forecast is, I said earlier, for 1-3 inches. I think that's prudent and probably where I would fall if you pinned me down.
Precip will likely start as a rain snow mix before quickly changing to all snow -- heaviest precip should be late morning/early afternoon.
Here's the latest breakdown:
No precip: 2 percent
All rain: less than 1 percent
Marginal event (1 inch or less of snow): 27 percent
Minor event (1-2 inches): 34 percent
Moderate event (2-4 inches) 24 percent
Major event (4-6 inches) 8 percent
Big dog event (6 inches or higher) 5 percent
As you can see, I'm giving us a 58 percent chance of an inch of snow or more. Of course, the half empty way to look at it is 30 percent chance of a dusting to nothing.