Friday, January 18, 2008

3:30 p.m. update: Some good signs

A few good signs.

1) The 18z NAM inched west. It now gives us .5 inches of precip again -- probably a 2-4 inch snow. 18z GFS out later this afternoon -- it will REALLY tell the tale.
2) Radar trends are good. None of the models projected precipitation making it north of the La./Ark. border, which has obviously happened -- for us it's all about north trends with precip. You can follow this all night
3) The EURO -- which had not been our friend for this entire storm -- made a late jump north this afternoon. The very short term is hardly this model's specialty, but we'll take any trend we can get.
4) WBTV -- a weather operation which I greatly respect -- is calling for 4-6 inches in our area. Frankly, I can't believe they did that and I don't think that will verify, but it shows that some pros have confidence in the upper end of the forecast.

The new weather service forecast is, I said earlier, for 1-3 inches. I think that's prudent and probably where I would fall if you pinned me down.

Precip will likely start as a rain snow mix before quickly changing to all snow -- heaviest precip should be late morning/early afternoon.

Here's the latest breakdown:

No precip: 2 percent
All rain: less than 1 percent
Marginal event (1 inch or less of snow): 27 percent
Minor event (1-2 inches): 34 percent
Moderate event (2-4 inches) 24 percent
Major event (4-6 inches) 8 percent
Big dog event (6 inches or higher) 5 percent

As you can see, I'm giving us a 58 percent chance of an inch of snow or more. Of course, the half empty way to look at it is 30 percent chance of a dusting to nothing.

We'll see!


Snowman said...

Just saw the updates as well. The cold air is coming and if it gets here before the precip something good may come.

I still tend to believe the precip gets swept away by the cold front, which means the precip gets here first and then the colder air. 36 is the forecast high for tomorrow and I don't see accumulating snow( at least significant snow ) with that temp. The 36 degree's will probably happen before noon and then start to slowly drop.

I'm still going with an inch if we're lucky and it should start as little rain.

Stay tuned to Skip,though, this one may get interesting. More should be known tonight.

BTW Skip, we agree on something. WBTV is a great weather operation and are normally the ones I choose to believe, especially with winter weather. They alsmost sent me into shock predicting 4-6". But they may see something we don't.

Anonymous said...

New map up on WBTV says up to 5" in going rihgt over top of KM.

Snowman said...

If we actually get a snow event I do believe Charlotte would get more due to the location of the storm.

I hope Eric Thomas pulls this one out. Normally, they are on the lower end as far as snowfall totals are concerned.

Snowman said...

Just watched WBTV and I don't think they are really buying into a 5" snow. I bet by 11 tonight they go with next to nothing and more rain than snow, which is what I believe anyway. Just not going to be cold enough overnight.

Anonymous said...

I, too, like WBTV..I generally depend on them for TV forecasts. Someone I have found to be generally even MORE reliable is Dr Joe Sobel at Accuweather. When I get to hear him, it is usually on WBT radio in the morning. I haven't heard his take on all of this yet.

Skip, I'm thinking you are right on here or at least really close. I hope so, anyway.

Skip Foster said...

18z GFS comes in around .3-.4 inches of liquid -- an improvement.

I think we're setting in around .4 inches of liquid. If we lose a little to rain and to the much smaller amount of dry air we have this storm than we did last, I'd say we're closing in on a 1-3 inch range -- with 2 inches being the best bet.

Snowman said...

Eric Thomas is still going for the 5" mark. Do you see it? As much as I would love to get it I'm just not sure why they aren't backing the totals down.

Anonymous said...

News 14 at their 6:41 report said 2-6" in Cleveland county area

Snowman said...

WBTV( on their website ) now says more snow likely around Charlotte, Gastonia less our way. This is something I've said from the beginning. Everything hinges on the path of the storm. Currently forecasted to be too far south for us to get a good snow.

Anonymous said...

Snowman- Skip wanna be.

Snowman said...

Anonymous: get an ID as I did. If you read he and I actually have differing opinions.