This storm is a mess. I wouldn't want to be a NWS forecaster right now. Take Atlanta -- the 12z NAM says: 8-12 inches. The 12z GFS says: 1 inch. What do you do?
Here, the differences aren't that sever, but are marked.
The NAM held steady with a nice 2-4 inch snow for us with just under .5 of liquid. The NAM actually twitched back the west a little bit.
The GFS, however, nosed further to the east with OUR precip-- I can't get to numeric guidance yet, but we look to be at about .2 inches of liquid, which would be a dusting to 1 inch snow, maybe 2 inches tops. Yet, the area of .5-.75 precip and higher (4-5 inch snow) is in Union County, N.C. -- just 60 miles away! And the .75-1.0 inch sector (6-8 inches of snow) is only about another 75 miles ESE of that.
Meanwhile, another short range model called the MM5 gives us about .6, even more than the NAM.
Still waiting on the Canadian and UK models (which have been the farthest east).
Bottom line: I have extremely low confidence in this forecast. With a 70 mile error further east we could see a big fat nothing. With a 70-mile error further west we could see a half a foot of snow.
Then there is the differences BETWEEN the models -- the NAM gives us more than TWICE the precip as the GFS.
And we're less than 24 hours from the start of the event (still some time tomorrow morning or early afternoon).
My best guess right now is that we'll see an inch or so out of this, but that could change dramatically based on current radar observation in the Gulf or anything else for that matter.