Saturday, January 19, 2008

6:50 am. update: Hopes are high

Overnight, the National Weathe Service saw something they liked in the radar trends. Check out this snippet from their area forecast discussion:

I FEEL FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT A SMALL PART OF THE FA WILL SEE WARNING CRITERIA...AND THATAREA MAY WELL BE ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR.

The "FA" is their forecast area and "warning criteria" snows would be 4 inches or more.

Radar trends look OK to me -- I don't see where we're a mortal lock for big precip, but the shield is definitely north of where models said it would be.

It's warm -- low 40s -- but don't let that fool you -- the arctic air is racing in from the east -- it's snow in places like Tuscaloosa and other points in Alabama and Ga. have winter precip. As mentioned before, we'll start out as a short period of rain before changing over -- if we do, in fact, see precip.

I'm going to look at some more data but it's primarily radar-watching time.

Fingers crossed!

23 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey Skip what time do you think it will turn to snow

Skip Foster said...

If it precicipates, it would turn to snow sometime late morning into early afternoon.

I'm still not convinced by looking at the radar, that anything will make it this far north, but we'll see.

Snowman said...

As I've said all along , to the East and south of us will be where the heavier snow falls. At least one Charlotte station now says the same. Something I said early yesterday.

The Radar kinda worried me a little when I saw it at 6:15 this morning but I am confident that Gastonia and eastward toward Charlotte see's the majority.

I still stick with a dusting to an inch with Gastonia/Charlotte seeing as much as 5" maybe a little more. We miss it by just a little as everything slides to the south and east of us.

Snowman said...

Snowman said...
The better for any precip farther south and east. I don't see the air temps being cold enough from the ground upwards to sustain snow.

We either have a mix or something like sleet. Anytime we are on the edge of a watch like this one, we usually get only a little in the way of winter precip. BUT, if the systems takes a track closer to I-85 then, watch out.

What temps do you see at the onset of any precip? At the onset is where I see us getting any snow. Also, this will be a fast moving storm which will limit the amount of precip as well.

9:21 AM


Skip Foster said...
Fast moving is right; the rest? Not so much. Cold air is NOT the issue. 850 temps are progged to be safely below 0 -- a standard test for snow vs. rain/ice. The issue here is precip -- will we have enough to make for accumulating snow.

Precip MIGHT start as rain at the very beginning of the alleged event, but a changeover to all snow would be quick and permanent -- it won't change back.

By the way, Sunday will be bitterly cold with lows Sunday night possibly in the single digits.

9:35 AM


Here is an interesting post from yesterday around 9:30am. Skip said it MIGHT start as rain meaning if it did it would change rather quickly. I said temps would be an issue and even now if anything falls from the skies it will be rain for at least 2-3 hours which WILL hamper amy accumulating snowfall.

The snowman has spoke and his words will ring true. Now flame me, if you will, but don't hate because of the truths spoken w/out the use of any computer model.

BTW, there will no snow next week and you will not see anymore snow( measurable snow )this year and that includes all the way to end of the year. GUARANTEED !!! Snowman Certified.

Skip Foster said...

Snowman -- I don't want you to get the wrong idea -- I appreciate you posting and your views -- I need all the help I can get.

More importantly, I appreciate you supporting my blog.

We basically had the same ideas for this storm -- lots of doubt.

One thing I've learned with this weather hobby is to stay humble. Lots of people know more than me -- and any time I think I can't get it wrong, the weather will quickly prove me wrong.

Anyway, post all you want and bring your friends -- the traffic is good for business!

Anonymous said...

How cold does it need to get for snow?

Skip Foster said...

32 -- and all through all levels of the atmosphere.

Right now, the arctic air is crashing southeastward.

Dewpoints are in the 20s on a line from just north of atlanta through Highlands, N.C. and along the mountains. That air is racing south.

Snowman said...

Anyone have an outside thermometer? The 2 I have are currently reading 37.3 degrees. 25 minutes ago it was at 36.8. Just curious what temps are in other areas. I'm in South Shelby.

Anonymous said...

40.0 in upper cleve

NCspydergurl said...

Its 37 here I am in Lawndale but the WC is 33.

Anonymous said...

Mine is at 39.9 near Casar

Anonymous said...

Temp has dropped to 39.3

Anonymous said...

Snowman, please no more predictions. Leave that to Skip because this is his blog not yours.

Anonymous said...

BAN THE SNOWMAN!

Anonymous said...

Ban the snowman!!! he is so pestimistic Ban him. It might just be me but there is a lot of moisture in Loisiana can that hit us??? and the temps when are they gonna start getting colder???

Puddy said...

I will sign the petition to ban Snowman. I am a snow lover and you gotta have hope. I still think we will get 4 inches!

snow blog said...

I'm an optimist but looking at the radar loop makes me think that we are not going to get much at all. I hope it changes. I was hoping it would turn out like 1993 and start out as rain and then suddenly change over to snow. (We were predicted to get nothing that time too, but things changed and we got the big one) This one looks like it's already starting to shift to the east. (Not good)

chad said...

boilings springs again but anyhow skip its 930 and from the looks of the system to me it looks like its starting to take more of a northernly track than expected...... let me know what u think about that so i know if its my mind playing games with me.... and SKIP NOT SNOWMAN!!

ICEMAN said...

I'm thinking 2-3" maybe more in scattered places. The the temperature will start to drop very soon. I think it will turn to snow between 10:30 and 11:00. It looks like the major snow is gonna be east of Gastonia. But there is still hope. : )

Puddy said...

Snow man is now Snow Blog and will go anon, next.

Yea- Skip.

Boo- Snowman/Snow Blog.(RUINED THE FUN FOR EVERYONE OF HOPE FOR SNOW)

snow blog said...

I still have hopes, but I just don't want to set myself up for a letdown. I am not a party pooper, I want to be wrong. I stayed upreally late for the last one looking for snow but only got to see flurries. I hope we end up in one of the higher bands of precip. There is always hope until the system starts passing.

Anonymous said...

Temp has RISEN a degree or so in the last hour out near the Shelby Airport. I read 42 now. My thermometer may be off a degree or two but the CHANGE should be real.

CherryvilleGirl said...

While I appreciate Snowman's interest, I am here (primarily) for Skip's explanations concerning the weather. I'm basically a novice, even though I have always loved learning more about the weather.

I appreciate Skip's humility...let's face it, the good Lord is the only one who "knows" for sure what's coming our way. For me, I hold out hope for snow!