Thursday, January 17, 2008

2:30 p.m. update: Big, bad model shift

Boy, what looked so promising a couple hours a go took a big hit this afternon. One after one, new models runs shifted the track of Saturday's system south and east -- the Euro, UK and Canadian models all moved east of even the GFS this afternoon, giving us zippo in terms of precip.

Now, you've got the GFS hanging onto a minor 2 inch-type even for us and the NAM a major westward outlier model.

We're VERY close to this event meteorologically, so what I would expect is the outlier to "blink" and move toward the other models, but we'll have to see about that.

Right now, my expectations are very low -- would be happy with another minor event like the GFS depicts.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thanks Skip but after this last disappointment I am done following the weather for awhile. In our area it seems we always get let down regarding snow.

ctim said...

The problem with dynamic cooling and snow for us is that is going to be short lived. The cold air has to be in place and it has to be strong enough not to get run out of dodge by the warm air from a low pressure system. We generally get these storms every 5-8 years. Everything has to be perfect for us but its still nice to follow storms.

Skip Foster said...

Quick look at 18z NAM shows an east shift, but not enough to take us out of the ball game -- still showing a 6-8 snow -- ALL SNOW, too, no ice involved here.

While the other models show a miss, they're all very close -- just 100 miles west or even less and we'd be in 2-6 inch range.

Anonymous said...

Skip
Do you think there will be any school delays in Cleveland County tomorrow morning?

ctim said...

WBTV is stating the models vary from either 4-6 or 8-12. If its an I-95 system do you think we really have a shot? Most system that far down normally bring more snow east of us if the temps are cold enough.

Anonymous said...

You think were gonna have school tomorrow???

Anonymous said...

What do you think about delays tomorrow? I'm sure we will have school but I figure on a delay. What about you Skip?

Skip Foster said...

Not sure about delays -- close call. Roads are wet, temps slightlyb below freezing -- will probably be a last-minute decision. You'll know as soon as we know.