Boy, what looked so promising a couple hours a go took a big hit this afternon. One after one, new models runs shifted the track of Saturday's system south and east -- the Euro, UK and Canadian models all moved east of even the GFS this afternoon, giving us zippo in terms of precip.
Now, you've got the GFS hanging onto a minor 2 inch-type even for us and the NAM a major westward outlier model.
We're VERY close to this event meteorologically, so what I would expect is the outlier to "blink" and move toward the other models, but we'll have to see about that.
Right now, my expectations are very low -- would be happy with another minor event like the GFS depicts.