Have you ever watched a basketball game and even though it's early in the second half, you can see that both teams are evenly matched and that the game will be decided in the final moments?
That's the feeling I'm getting from the Saturday event.
The 0z NAM stubbornly hangs on to a snowy solution for us (and many other areas -- from Northern Miss. through Alabama, especially northern Ga. where Atlanta would get hammered).
Taken literally, the NAM spits out about .7 inches of liquid - at least a 4-6 inch snow.
The 0z GFS, on the other hand, eased a little farther east and took some moisture with it. Whereas it showed a nice moderate event at 18z, now it has scaled back to .3-.4 of an inch liquid, a 1-3 inch snow.
Here's the difference between the 18z and 0z runs -- for Saturday early afternoon.
You can see that we're solidly in the dark green on the first map, but barely in it on the second. It's subtle shift of less than 100 miles, but that's the kind of shift that is going to be very disappointing for someone in the southeast.
Could be us, but barring a real model consensus developing, we probably won't know until the event is right on top of us.
Now, I need to correct a point I think I made earlier. The NAM actually did better with the precip on last night's event. We had almost 1 inch of liquid. The problem is, so much of it was as sleet (a real precip eater -- 1 inch of rain equals 12 inches of snow, but 1 inch of rain equals just 2 inches of sleet) and then freezing rain.
Coming later tonight, the UK, Candian and Euro, but that will be past my bedtime (esp. after last night!).
I'll update first thing in the morning.