Friday, January 18, 2008

7 a.m. update: Trend is not our friend

The model shift overnight continued to ease east -- that move is ushering in plenty of cold air, but taking precip with it.

Instead of looking at models with .5 to .8 of liquid falling - a 4-6 inch snow storm -- we are now down to the .2-.5 range -- more like 1-3 inches.

Still not a bad consolation prize, of course. And to wit, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Cleveland County and other counties to our east.

You'll notice, though, that we are the western most county in the watch area -- never like being "on the edge."

The 12z models will be crucial -- if the east trend is arrested and current model projections are close, we won't walk away empty handed.

But if the models continue to trend east, we will end up with little to nothing in the way of snow.

Also, this is a rare time when KM and Grover stand to do better than Casar in this storm -- the farther south and especially east you are the better.

Full update after the 12z model run late this morning.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

The farther south and east the better. I mentioned this in your last update.

Skip Foster said...

The better for what? Also, if you want your predictions taken seriously, please sign up for a screen name -- even if it doesn't identify you personally, it will let us all know that the same person is talking. Otherwise, with the scads of anonymous posters, anybody can claim credit for anything.

Snowman said...

The better for any precip farther south and east. I don't see the air temps being cold enough from the ground upwards to sustain snow.

We either have a mix or something like sleet. Anytime we are on the edge of a watch like this one, we usually get only a little in the way of winter precip. BUT, if the systems takes a track closer to I-85 then, watch out.

What temps do you see at the onset of any precip? At the onset is where I see us getting any snow. Also, this will be a fast moving storm which will limit the amount of precip as well.

Skip Foster said...

Fast moving is right; the rest? Not so much. Cold air is NOT the issue. 850 temps are progged to be safely below 0 -- a standard test for snow vs. rain/ice. The issue here is precip -- will we have enough to make for accumulating snow.

Precip MIGHT start as rain at the very beginning of the alleged event, but a changeover to all snow would be quick and permanent -- it won't change back.

By the way, Sunday will be bitterly cold with lows Sunday night possibly in the single digits.

eightiesrefugee said...

BUT SKIP! The corns on grandma's feet are actin' up! Doesn't that account for anything?!?!? Darn these new fangled computer boxes and models...Granny's feet will have the last word!

Skip Foster said...

Given the disparity of computer model solutions right now, I might ask grannie to write my next update!

snowman said...

As Skip has said, this could be one of those storms where its too far south or if it tracks a little farther north could mean plenty.

Skip and I disagree on how cold it will be. Even the temps I see on TV is for highs in the upper 30's with a low of around 32 in the morning. 36 or 37 isn't good for snow to accumulate. If the temp is able to hold at 32, preferrably below 32, with the onset of the precip then I could see a big snow.

My opinion is simple: If the weatherman says tonight that we get nothing then expect something. If he says expect something then expect nothing.

Snowman said...

That was me above, just didn't sign in.