Saturday, January 19, 2008

10:30 a.m. update: Still hope

Frankly, my love for snow is being overcome with my fascination in this system.

First, temps and dewpoints are CRASHING to our north and west.

Go this link and then hover over "dew," which is dewpoints. You can see the arctic air pouring in from the northwest. As precip falls through this drier air it will cool the surface temperature.

Dewpoints in the mid 20s have made it as far as Henderson County.

Now, check out this radar loop.

Clearly, we are going to see precipitation.

Now, the fascinating part -- will the cold air beat or meet the precip?

This is why this is such an unusual system and why the professional forecasters have been pulling their hair out over it.

Good news: There has been a changover to snow in some places in N. Ga.

More good news: NAM puts us back in to about .4-.5 inches of precip.

Bad news: Clearly the models overestimated the speed at which cold air would arrive.

Verdict: There aren't many times you can be 2-4 hours away from an event and STILL not know what's going to happen.

I think we will see snow today -- whether it's a quick burst at the end of a long rain or accumulating snows remains to be seen.

Watch that radar and local observations for the verdict.

IMPORTANT: Rutherford County posters -- please share your conditions as well as Cleveland County folks on the west side of the county -- when you turn sharply colder, the rest of us will be soon to follow. Also, it will be interesting to know the intensity of the precip band that's moving in, so Gaffney folks and others on the southwest, let us know how hard it rains at the start.

Let's not give up hope!

23 comments:

Skip Foster said...

Rain has now changed to snow in many Alabama locations -- nearest place to hear I can find is a spotter northeast of Gainesville, Ga. in extreme NE Ga.

Radar is looking GREAT, if we can get the temps to crash.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?radar_us+/2h/

Anonymous said...

Nothing yet here in Rutherford County. Temp is dropping though. We have had some rain but that's it. Temp is currently around 39 here.

Anonymous said...

Far western Cleveland County here. I'm watching the Accuweather radar. It's showing precip echoes as close as Greenville-Spartanburg and moving towards us pretty fast. But as of this post, it's still 41 degrees at my house. So I guess you're exactly right, Skip. The race is on...cold air and precipitation...Accuweather is predicting temps around Shelby to hover in the mid 30s all day. I guess we just have to keep watching Mother Nature!

chad said...

boiling springs here again and the temp is falling.... about 37 at my house and it was 40 45 minutes ago....

ICEMAN said...

here in south Shelby temperature 40 degrees hopefully the cold air will beat the precipitation. How much longer till precip. falls

Skip Foster said...

Chad, that's great news -- even if it just gets to 34-35, the upper levels are cold and you'll start seeing snow -- please keep us updated closely.

Skip Foster said...

Heavy snow now being reported in NE Ga. -- transition to snow happening just north of Atlanta.

One thing to remember on that observations link I sent and if you are checking NWS observations -- they are usually only updated every hour.

With this storm an hour is an ETERNITY.

Anonymous said...

Ok, my professional (ha!) opinion, is that the precip is going to miss the cold and we will have a marginal (or just wet) event at best. It's still 41 in Grover at 11 AM. Sorry...I want it too.....

Skip Foster said...

National Weather Service has updated -- keeps us at 1-2 inches.

Lattimore said...

Temp at 38.6 degrees in Lattimore.....it was 41 about 30 minutes ago

chad said...

you can stand outside and almost literally feeling it getting colder now that the drizzle has started....

Skip Foster said...

Also reports that temperatures, dewpoints now crashing in Alexander County.

I'm starting to feel a little better about this!

Skip Foster said...

Snow now reported in Sylva, N.C.

Lattimore said...

Temp now 37.8 in Lattimore....feels like it's getting colder. Be back in a little while to report conditions.

Anonymous said...

temp getting colder here in Cliffside (Rutherford County). I believe we are starting to get a slight drizzle. Skip when do you think it will start to change to snow?

Skip Foster said...

Main shield of precip back at Greenville -- in terms of changeover, if it hasn't done it by 2 p.m., we're going to lose our precip.

By the way, made a new posts for observations -- pick up there!

Btw, do you have a temp reading in Cliffside? I know most don't have outdoor themometers -- just checking.

Puddy said...

A little sleet up here in Lawndale.

Anonymous said...

It says 39 here in Cliffside.

Anonymous said...

Near Polkville: I must live on a heat rock, all 3 of my thermometers say 42 degrees and no rain or snow. Seems my temps are going up. It was 40 at 6 p.m. last night – then went to 35 at 11:30 p.m., then back up to 42 this morning and hasn’t moved. Please snow, please snow, please snow

Dale said...

In Shelby's south side here. Been checking wunderground.com and checking our temp. at the Shelby airport as well as various cities to our south and west. Shelby airport temp. is 41.

Atlanta is 32 and snow, Greenville, SC is 40 and rain, Spartanburg is 42.1 with rain.

Looks like the snow falling in the Atlanta area is causing a drop in surface temps. The weather people have a word for this cooling effect but I don't remember the term.

Do you know the term Skip?

Dale said...

In Shelby's south side here. Been checking wunderground.com and checking our temp. at the Shelby airport as well as various cities to our south and west. Shelby airport temp. is 41.

Atlanta is 32 and snow, Greenville, SC is 40 and rain, Spartanburg is 42.1 with rain.

Looks like the snow falling in the Atlanta area is causing a drop in surface temps. The weather people have a word for this cooling effect but I don't remember the term.

Do you know the term Skip?

Dale said...

Sorry for the double post Skip.

Anonymous said...

Far west Cleveland County here again..Mooresboro area..extremely light precip...Temp still holding at 41.

Joe