Wednesday, January 16, 2008

7 a.m. weather update: Ramping it up!

The late trend is for a stronger storm. This started with 0z model runs and was strengthened with the 6z runs.

The 6z NAM shows us getting 2-3 inches of snow followed by a significant ice glaze. The 6z GFS has the same kind of temperature profile, but has markedly less precip -- it shows us with around an inch of snow followed by .1 to .2 glaze of ice, which is in line with the current NWS forecast.

Right now, I'd probably split the difference and go for 1-2 inches of snow and a .2 glaze of ice -- this would be very close to enough snow/ice to do damage to trees so this even now bears close watching in that respect.

More updates through the day.


Anonymous said...

On the weatherchannel & weatherbug's site, it says that the Winter Weather Watch has been downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory now and is only predicting rain or freezing rain.....say it ain't so?

Kristin Fletcher

Skip Foster said...

Not necessarily a downgrade. That still basically keeps the forecast in line with what we're talking about, although it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see it upgraded later today to a Winter Storm Warning.

The NAM shows all of Cleveland County getting 4 inches of snow before a changeover to ice and most model snow show us staying below freezing for all or almost all of the event.