Thursday, January 17, 2008

Sat. storm update: NAM gives us a foot

I'm not saying it's right, I'm only saying -- this is what the 12z run of the NAM shows starting Saturday morning. Check out these maps and tell me if you've ever seen anything snowier.

Dawn on Saturday. Precip moves in with temps below freezing
Early Saturday afternoon. That's more than .75 liquid in a 6-hour period -- apparently all as snow. If accurate, that's 1-inch per hour snow for 6 hours. You do the math.
Saturday evening. Storm winding down, but not before another 2-3 inches falls.

Only thing about this run is temps look a little iffier, so we'll have to look at 12z GFS very closely. Still, the amazing thing about this event is that it is so CLOSE -- onset us just 48 hours away!

More to come......


dyeguy07 said...

I'm off on weekends so bring on a foot of snow!!!! I hope we get more after a 2 year absence of winter weather we deserve it.

now question is this, the model that is showing saturdays storm, how much off was it on wednesdays accumulation?

Skip Foster said...

It was off quite a bit, although it's hard to say because we lost TONS of accumulation due to the dry air.

According to radar estimates, we received around .7 inches of liquid -- most runs of the NAM came in between .75 and 1 inch (although a late run showed 1.3 inches) Most runs of the GFS came in between .5 and .7 so it was really kind of in between.

Each storm is different though -- CAD events are much harder for the models to handle.

We'll see on this one.

Anonymous said...

Chance of a next storm? Zero to none. Being in Shelby all my life, you never take what a weatherman says. If they call for snow, guaranteed you will not get much. Its when they call for next to nothing when you better pay attention. Remember several years ago( can't remember the year ) we were basically supposed to get what we did this time. An upper level disturbance formed almost right over us and BAM lots of snow. Unfortunately, no big snow again this year.