I hoped to offer better than 1 in 10 odds of snow Sunday, but I can't. In fact, I'm downgrading to 1 in 12. Still, we're hardly out of the running for some winter weather.
Here's the deal:
The latest runs of the GFS have the storm missing us to the south and east. Instead of low pressure hugging the Gulf Coast, then crossing the Fla. panhandle into South Ga. and off the S.C./Ga. coast, the low forms more south, crosses the Fla. peninsula and then offshore.
Here are a series of maps from the 12z run (for a definition of 12z see comments from my last post).
Late Saturday night Note the low pressure in the central gulf
Wee hours Sun. AM
Sunday morning Low over Fla. peninsula
Sunday afternoon Low moving offshore
Late Sunday night Low missing us to the east
You'll notice that the GFS is good on temperatures.
Now the good news (with some bad news mixed in).
The Euro (maps from the Euro are crude and not easy to link to) has a much better track for the low, but temps are not as good -- it would not get cold enough for snow until the system is moving away. Also, the Euro does not intensify the low until it is almost past us to the northeast, which means less precip.
So, there are ingredients in place and it's too soon to bail out, but we're definitely still talking about a low chance (although lately a low chance is better than NO chance).
Also, as a friendly reminder, I did not say it was going to snow, only that we had a system to track.
More later today or tonight.
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7 comments:
I TOLD YOU SO!
You should stick to news and leave the weather to the experts. Here's an idea ... focus on what's going on in and around Cleveland County. Ideas for stories: water restrictions - where do we stand? Are we still in drought mode? What's going to happen if we have another summer like '07? Unemployment - what are the numbers? For the folks who have recently lost their jobs, what are they doing? Going back to school? Seeking employment outside the county? What? These would be interesting stories. Of course, not as easy as trying to figure out if we are going to see any snow.
All good story ideas. Thankfully, we've already writte on a number of them. Here's one on the water restrictions being lifted a couple months ago.
http://www.shelbystar.com/news/restrictions_27005___article.html/water_district.html
Look, we are looking for news. Who have time to play games about the weather. If you dont want the job of bringing news to the people give it to someone that will take it serious. Its people out here that needs a Job and you are playing around doing NOTHING. GROW UP AND GIVE US SOME NEWS WORTH READING. WE NEED NEW PEOPLE TO RUN THE STAR THAT IS SERIOUS ABOUT GETTING THE NEWS PUBLISHED TO US!!! NEWS FROM THE TOWN OF SHELBY AND SURRONDING AREAS.
"Play games with the weather?"
Weather IS news.
I'm sorry you don't care for the The Star's news coverage, but thanks for supporting my blog and our web site.
Skip - you and the Star do a great job reporting the serious and the fun stuff! Thanks for keeping it light. I guess listening to the whiny-britches is part of your job...
To anonymous my name is Freddy Wall I just recently lost my job at Copeland and I'm working on going back to school. It will not be easy because I have been out of school for 22 years. I'm going to do the best I can for my family. Thank you for your concern about those who have lost their jobs. Now Mr Foster you can keep doing the weather.
FREDDY
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